I don't think it will outsell the Switch. It's too similar; basically a Switch Pro. It will sell well, though.

There's still a lot of uncertainty but right now I'd bet on it selling less since the Switch had so many things going for it such as the concept feeling fresh, being able to use the Wii U library to pad out the release schedule for the first few years and the pandemic giving a huge sales boost. There's also that Nintendo no longer has a complete monopoly on handheld gaming with the rise of PC handhelds and with there likely being an Xbox handheld happening gamers who prefer handheld gaming and/or love having a device that does that and TV/monitor gaming will have more options for that compared to most of the Switch's life.

The Switch 2 does also have things going for it though such as it being the successor to one of the most popular consoles ever and Nintendo being in the best position it's ever been in popularity wise with its IP's reaching new heights. The sequel to the Mario film releasing next year is a taste of what's to come since there's surely gonna be a bunch of other films and things like that during the life of the Switch 2 helping keep Nintendo's popularity sky high. There's also that its third party support should be significantly stronger with it being way better from the get go and it getting a lot more high profile big games like Hogwarts Legacy.

Cause of things like that it should still be a huge success so if I had to make a prediction right now I'd go with it selling 130-140m and taking the 4th place spot. It probably lasting at least a full 8 years like the Switch has will also help a lot with it selling that much. The biggest question mark is how successful the first party games will be since replicating the success of something like New Horizons won't exactly be easy. Ideally they'll blow people away with the April direct to help it have a strong start.

We don’t have nearly enough information to begin to tell.
1. Will it launch with a killer app? (Like NES, Wii, Switch)
2. Will it have a killer app during its lifecycle? (like Gameboy and Switch)
3. Will it have numerous system sellers? (Like Switch, NES, SNES, GB, GBA, DS, 3DS)
4. Will it have a feature the news cycles will demonize? (3DS?)
5. Will it have a sluggish interface? (Wii U)
6. Will there be something wrong/uncool with the image? (GameCube).
7. Will it have longterm support that might go beyond its successor launch (NES, 3DS, and GB—at least on the first part)
8. Will it have sudden new competition from more ubiquitous platforms (3DS)

There are so many things that aren’t clear right now.

Super early to say but I'm thinking around GB+GBC or PS4, maybe the low 120s which is why I voted 120-130 million.

With Xbox and Playstation shifting to more digital game releases over physical, I can see a large migration of tens of millions of new Nintendo customers who still love their physical media. I'm currently disgusted by lack of physical releases on Xbox. I currently game on all 3 platforms, but I can see myself being an only Nintendo gamer and skipping all future Xbox and Playstation generations.

Not letting me have a physical edition of Avowed is enough to put me over the edge (been looking forward to this game for years and now a giant kick in the balls).

With Switch and Switch 2 games, I can easily build a 300 plus physical game library that I'll enjoy for the next 10-20 years.

I voted big, 170+.

I don't believe it's likely that the Switch 2 will do as well as the Switch 1, but I think the Switch 2 will be successful in its own right. Maybe around 100-120 million?

Knowing there are still people that might never change from Switch to Switch 2 (even in 8 years) and that there will be more competition than with the Switch (new microsoft handheld, new playstation handlheld in works).
But on the plus side, the jump from Switch 2 seems massive and it will definitely receive more support from third party and will be closer to the competition than Switch was. I feel like the first party library for Switch 2 will be bigger with the newfound confidence and bigger teams they have invested during Switch 1. Also franchises that came back to life on Switch will maybe comeback faster on Switch 2 cause they know now they have the potential. Switch was ports heavy because of the failure of the Wii U and i feel like with Switch 2, they will need to get out of beaten path more.

So in summary, i feel like it could still beat the PS4, but not be able to compete with the Switch with some context factors like the pandemic that pushed it to higher. But at the same time i feel like if Switch 2 can compete with PS5 and Xbox enough, knowing those are having issues figure out their first party output, it might blow up bigger than i anticipate.

I've been saying for a while that I think NS2 will sell about 120m, with NS1 reaching about 160m. I think 75% of what NS1 sold would still be great because that would still put it in the top 5, and above ever PS except PS2 (doubt PS5 will reach 120m, though I guess there's a chance if PS6 doesn't release until 2028).

75% is almost the same as the drop from the NES to SNES (that was closer to 80%). I'd expect Nintendo to lose some people who are still content with their NS1s, as well as people who picked it up during the pandemic. That being said, they'll also gain the next generation of kids that were born mid-way through the NS1's life (as well as kids being born now, later into NS2's life). Overall. net drop but still widely successful. I do expect NS2 sales in 2025-2027 to be higher than NS1 sales in 2017-2019. Starting in 2020 is naturally when NS1 will take the lead.

Without the pandemic, the NS1 probably would end around 150m, so NS2 at 120m in that scenario is 80%. Presumably, there will be no worldwide pandemic....

Ultimately voted for the 120m-130m range, but should end likely on the lower end of that.

I am gonma be cautious and say 30- 80 million LTD...

that’s a little too optimistic. I’m thinking NSW2 will likely follow the trajectory of NES>SNES>N64>GCN>Wii U>NSW2, so maybe 9-10mil LTD?