I've been saying for a while that I think NS2 will sell about 120m, with NS1 reaching about 160m. I think 75% of what NS1 sold would still be great because that would still put it in the top 5, and above ever PS except PS2 (doubt PS5 will reach 120m, though I guess there's a chance if PS6 doesn't release until 2028).
75% is almost the same as the drop from the NES to SNES (that was closer to 80%). I'd expect Nintendo to lose some people who are still content with their NS1s, as well as people who picked it up during the pandemic. That being said, they'll also gain the next generation of kids that were born mid-way through the NS1's life (as well as kids being born now, later into NS2's life). Overall. net drop but still widely successful. I do expect NS2 sales in 2025-2027 to be higher than NS1 sales in 2017-2019. Starting in 2020 is naturally when NS1 will take the lead.
Without the pandemic, the NS1 probably would end around 150m, so NS2 at 120m in that scenario is 80%. Presumably, there will be no worldwide pandemic....
Ultimately voted for the 120m-130m range, but should end likely on the lower end of that.
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