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Forums - Gaming Discussion - GotY 2024 Ultimate Award Prediction - The Game Awards (TGA)

 

And the VGA winner is...

Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth 65 24.16%
 
Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree 35 13.01%
 
Astro Bot 89 33.09%
 
Metaphor: Fantazio 34 12.64%
 
Wukong: Black Myth 29 10.78%
 
Balatro 17 6.32%
 
Total:269
firebush03 said:
BraLoD said:

Usually the GOTY needs to fill at least 1, or more of this points to be elected:

1. Be technically impressive 2. Be artistically impressive 3. Be massive/have content to last long

4. Have a strong narrative/story 5. Have brand/franchise recognition 6. Studio/company have excellent track record

what on earth is this list you've compiled here, BraLoD? Lol.

Point (1.) dismisses the fact that Nintendo has come very close to winning two of the past eight years (2017, 2023), and has been in the discussion for six of the past eight years (2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023).

Points (2.) & (6.) is satisfied by almost every nominee for GotY in any given year.

Point (3.) is a fair point: Usually open world AAA experiences do have a bit of a bias leaning in their favor. That's part of the reason why Astro isn't a lock for winning.

Point (4.) is very subjective, and dismisses the fact that four of the past eight years saw a winner from a game in which story took a backseat compared to gameplay (2017 BotW, 2021 It Takes Two, 2022 Elden Ring, 2023 Baldur's Gate 3).

Point (5.) is arguably wrong. Originality is a positive, not a negative. (2013 TLoU, 2016 Overwatch, 2019 Sekiro, 2021 It Takes Two, 2022 Elden Ring, 2023 Baldur's Gate 3 (first entry in over two decades).)

...This is not to say I disagree with your conclusion that FFVIIRebirth is gonna win, though you're reasoning here with this arbitrary list of broad and subjective factors is a bit off imo. 

Did not say a game needs all of them, 1 preferably  more they definitely do.

About 1, you talking an almost here, which also means did not win. The one that won, though? Had more or less all of the points I listed, BotW was not technically impressive in graphics but it was certainly technically impressive in physics in 2017.

Of course new games won't fall into point 5, lol.

About 2 and 6, indies do not meet 6, which makes it harder for them, doesn't it? Also, Balatro and Wukong are not artistically impressive, Metaphor is, for example. And Metaphor is the only one of those 3 with a, albeit small, chance of winning.

The list may be arbitrary, it's just a personal perception I have that most GOTYs follow to feel like GOTYs, Wukong for example fails most of those and definitely doesn't feel like a GOTY, which doesn't mean it's not a good/fun game, but that I'm adamant it has virtually no chance of winning whatsoever.



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BraLoD said:
Leynos said:

The most impactful RPGs are Ultima and Wizardry. Wizardry esp as every RPG esp JRPGS took from it. Aside from DnD itself, Wizardry is the most influential and impactful RPG series ever made. FF7 helped further popularize JRPGs in the west but no new genres or subgenres came from it nor mechanically anything new.

FF7 is often considered the most important RPG in gaming, it doesn't need to be the first to become that, as FF7 marked the change in status for the genre, RPGs are still relevant to people nowdays because almost 20 years ago FF7 made it go from niche to the biggest thing in the industry.

Over exaggerating there a bit and JRPGs fell out of favor in the 7th gen but things like Xenoblade and Dark Souls helped bring it back. There is no Final Fantasy at all without Wizardry. RPGs were successful on 16-Bit machines mind you just FF7 helped further expand the popularity in the west but Secret of Mana in Japan was more popular as is DQ. FF7 did not inspire any RPGs to copy it or create any new mechanics to be emulated and create an entire genre. Wizardry did. No FF. No DQ. No YS. No falcom. No Enix. No Square. No Legend of Dragoon. Wizardry wasn't the first either. Ultima was.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

BraLoD said:
firebush03 said:

what on earth is this list you've compiled here, BraLoD? Lol.

Point (1.) dismisses the fact that Nintendo has come very close to winning two of the past eight years (2017, 2023), and has been in the discussion for six of the past eight years (2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023).

Points (2.) & (6.) is satisfied by almost every nominee for GotY in any given year.

Point (3.) is a fair point: Usually open world AAA experiences do have a bit of a bias leaning in their favor. That's part of the reason why Astro isn't a lock for winning.

Point (4.) is very subjective, and dismisses the fact that four of the past eight years saw a winner from a game in which story took a backseat compared to gameplay (2017 BotW, 2021 It Takes Two, 2022 Elden Ring, 2023 Baldur's Gate 3).

Point (5.) is arguably wrong. Originality is a positive, not a negative. (2013 TLoU, 2016 Overwatch, 2019 Sekiro, 2021 It Takes Two, 2022 Elden Ring, 2023 Baldur's Gate 3 (first entry in over two decades).)

...This is not to say I disagree with your conclusion that FFVIIRebirth is gonna win, though you're reasoning here with this arbitrary list of broad and subjective factors is a bit off imo. 

Did not say a game needs all of them, 1 preferably  more they definitely do.

About 1, you talking an almost here, which also means did not win. The one that won, though? Had more or less all of the points I listed, BotW was not technically impressive in graphics but it was certainly technically impressive in physics in 2017.

Of course new games won't fall into point 5, lol.

About 2 and 6, indies do not meet 6, which makes it harder for them, doesn't it? Also, Balatro and Wukong are not artistically impressive, Metaphor is, for example. And Metaphor is the only one of those 3 with a, albeit small, chance of winning.

The list may be arbitrary, it's just a personal perception I have that most GOTYs follow to feel like GOTYs, Wukong for example fails most of those and definitely doesn't feel like a GOTY, which doesn't mean it's not a good/fun game, but that I'm adamant it has virtually no chance of winning whatsoever.

(1.) “Almost” meaning had BG3 not released last year, TotK would have won. Hence, I’ll continue to view my remark as a valid critique to your list.

(6.) The reason indies almost never win GotY has anything to do with originality. Undertale 2 (aka Deltarune) would have far less of a chance than Undertale 1, unless they truly revolutionized the game. The reason indies can’t win has solely to do with the fact that these devs are typically operating under a less-than-couple-million dollar budget. How could they possibly compete with studios which pour hundreds of millions into their games? Who have entire studios of incredibly renown game designers working at their peak?

In any case, you concede this is mostly “vibes based analysis”, to which I’ll respect your list as is. We don’t all have to be in agreement, and maybe you’re right…as much as I may think otherwise lol. My analysis typically boils down to (1.) Are there any games which received an extreme level of praise? Like Elden Ring, Astro, or GoW? (2.) If so, how many? (3.) What is the community saying between these top-tier titles?

Last edited by firebush03 - 1 day ago

Leynos said:
BraLoD said:

FF7 is often considered the most important RPG in gaming, it doesn't need to be the first to become that, as FF7 marked the change in status for the genre, RPGs are still relevant to people nowdays because almost 20 years ago FF7 made it go from niche to the biggest thing in the industry.

Over exaggerating there a bit and JRPGs fell out of favor in the 7th gen but things like Xenoblade and Dark Souls helped bring it back. There is no Final Fantasy at all without Wizardry. RPGs were successful on 16-Bit machines mind you just FF7 helped further expand the popularity in the west but Secret of Mana in Japan was more popular as is DQ. FF7 did not inspire any RPGs to copy it or create any new mechanics to be emulated and create an entire genre. Wizardry did. No FF. No DQ. No YS. No falcom. No Enix. No Square. No Legend of Dragoon. Wizardry wasn't the first either. Ultima was.

I know the discussion itself is silly to begin with, but putting LoD there just to try to make fun is pretty much ridiculous.

Xenoblade Chronicles 5 games and 2 remasters, combined together, still have yet to outsell FF7 on the PS1 alone. Xenoblade helped bring the genre back, but FF7 is not the biggest name in RPG story? lol, just come on brother.

You are mentioning Japan, and FF7 was the game to make the whole world want to get into RPGs.

After FF7 the genre went from being another genre to the prime genre in the industry, just because of FF7 alone. Presentation in RPGs changed drastically and a LOT of games came trying to be the next FF7.

You are talking about making ground, I'm talking about becoming the biggest game there was.



@BraLoD updated my prev response!



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Stellar blade was robbed, it's better than Erd Tree and it's actually a full game. The damn thing has rail riding like rachet & Clank, for no other reason than it just looks cool. This is better than Bayonetta, better than DMC and better than old school GoW for me. 



BraLoD said:
Kyuu said:

Metaphor isn't beating Rebirth, but it's guaranteed to "steal" a bunch of votes because the two games appeal to similar demographics. As long as publications pick their actual favorite of the two rather than politically ignore Metaphor for the sake of "the other great JRPG winning", Rebirth will lose a number of votes. Metaphor is definitely favored over Rebirth by a good number of people. Will it be enough to beat Rebirth? Probably not, but it could do some damage and indirectly help AstroBot.

I mostly agree on Wukong, Balatro, and Shadow of the Erdtree.

Reviews and scores are a little bit different. You can tell that AstroBot overall was better received than Rebirth, and that's not just because it score a couple of points higher on Metacritic and Opencritic. God of War was arguably better received than RDR2 even though it was 3 points behind. RDR2 got criticisms unexpressed by the inflated aggregated scores. Rebirth received a LOT of community complaints about padding, minigames, story/ending, and picture quality. AstroBot's complaints were minor in comparison. AstroBot is also significant in that it is Sony's first 3D Mario-tier platformer since... ever?... So some publications may pick it as a way to push Sony to that direction; to make more platformers and expand the remnants of Japan studio.

No JRPG ever won a major GOTY award. Platformers won a number of times. It Takes Two, which is often viewed as a platformer, is GOTY 2021.

I think it can go either way, but cheer with me for Rebirth, that's an order.

I agree that having 3 RPGs there will canibalize the audience and favor Astro Bot, but I still believe that is nowhere near enough for it to beat Rebirth.

It Takes Two would not come near winning most years, 2021 was arguably the weakest year in many, many years, the biggest game there was RE8 which would also not make the top 3 this year.

Elden Ring is a JRPG, too, and would you look at that 

FF7 being a JRPG and winning the GOTY there too would not surprise me in the slightest, it's FF7 afterall, a open world FF7 no less, it was made to win GOTY awards.

Usually the GOTY needs to fill at least 1, or more of this points to be elected:

1. Be technically impressive

2. Be artistically impressive

3. Be massive/have content to last long

4. Have a strong narrative/story

5. Have brand/franchise recognition

6. Studio/company have excellent track record

FF7 Rebirth fits all of those, all of them.

Astro Bot has 2, 6 because of Sony, and 1, but many would dimish it there because it's not a realistic focused game.

Metaphor have 2, 3, 4 and 6 because of Atlus.

Obviously have more points doesn't automatically make a game the winner, it's not math, as a game can be so, so good at only something as that matter more than others being good in more ways, but Rebirth really looks like a lock to me.

FromSoftware doesn't make JRPG's. "Japanese" RPG's are Japanese in style, not make. Souls games go outside the range of what makes a JRPG. Yes, they're 100% "Japanese made RPG's" and a glorious Japan gaming achievement, but I'm talking style/genre, not place of origin. Sure, the term "JRPG" remains quite broad and encompasses a large variety of gameplay systems and art styles, but it's generally agreed on that FromSoftware's games go outside this range. I would argue BotW and TotK are closer to being JRPG than FromSoftware's stuff, certainly more "J". 

Granted genres overlap and are becoming more and more difficult to define, RPG's especially.

It Take Two had weaker competition, but it was also a weaker game so it evens out... kind of.

AstroBot is more technically impressive than Rebirth as far as I'm concerned (physics and interactivity are off the chart!). Scope, content, IP recognition, and narrative obviously go to Rebirth. But AstroBot has its own set of advantages that may cancel out whatever Rebirth has going for it. SquareEnix stopped being synonymous with "quality" a long time ago, and are generally more associated with disappointments. They couldn't quite bounce back like Capcom did (nicknamed "Crapcom" in the 7th gen).

Overwatch beat Uncharted 4 even though the latter was higher rated and ticked more of these boxes. I do respect that you're not completely denying AstroBot's chances, so I guess there's not much left to discuss. May the gods realize your prediction because I think Square and Final Fantasy deserve it this time.



BraLoD said:
Leynos said:

Over exaggerating there a bit and JRPGs fell out of favor in the 7th gen but things like Xenoblade and Dark Souls helped bring it back. There is no Final Fantasy at all without Wizardry. RPGs were successful on 16-Bit machines mind you just FF7 helped further expand the popularity in the west but Secret of Mana in Japan was more popular as is DQ. FF7 did not inspire any RPGs to copy it or create any new mechanics to be emulated and create an entire genre. Wizardry did. No FF. No DQ. No YS. No falcom. No Enix. No Square. No Legend of Dragoon. Wizardry wasn't the first either. Ultima was.

I know the discussion itself is silly to begin with, but putting LoD there just to try to make fun is pretty much ridiculous.

Xenoblade Chronicles 5 games and 2 remasters, combined together, still have yet to outsell FF7 on the PS1 alone. Xenoblade helped bring the genre back, but FF7 is not the biggest name in RPG story? lol, just come on brother.

You are mentioning Japan, and FF7 was the game to make the whole world want to get into RPGs.

After FF7 the genre went from being another genre to the prime genre in the industry, just because of FF7 alone. Presentation in RPGs changed drastically and a LOT of games came trying to be the next FF7.

You are talking about making ground, I'm talking about becoming the biggest game there was.

It doesn't exist without it https://www.timeextension.com/features/the-making-of-wizardry-the-landmark-rpg-that-inspired-dragon-quest-and-final-fantasy

You used the words most impactful which is wrong.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Leynos said:
BraLoD said:

I know the discussion itself is silly to begin with, but putting LoD there just to try to make fun is pretty much ridiculous.

Xenoblade Chronicles 5 games and 2 remasters, combined together, still have yet to outsell FF7 on the PS1 alone. Xenoblade helped bring the genre back, but FF7 is not the biggest name in RPG story? lol, just come on brother.

You are mentioning Japan, and FF7 was the game to make the whole world want to get into RPGs.

After FF7 the genre went from being another genre to the prime genre in the industry, just because of FF7 alone. Presentation in RPGs changed drastically and a LOT of games came trying to be the next FF7.

You are talking about making ground, I'm talking about becoming the biggest game there was.

It doesn't exist without it https://www.timeextension.com/features/the-making-of-wizardry-the-landmark-rpg-that-inspired-dragon-quest-and-final-fantasy

You used the words most impactful which is wrong.

So many games including Dark Souls and arguably the entire Soulslike genre wouldn't have existed as we know them without ICO (a highly influential PS2 title that couldn't sell a single million copies). Miyazaki (responsible for lifting FromSoftware to godhood) may have not even entered the industry without ICO. I don't know if this makes it more impactful than Dark Souls though, they're just influential in different ways. Tens of thousands of games have some influence one way or another on tens of thousands. Gaming is the accumulation of countless influences. Zelda and Team ICO games literally influenced each other according to Eiji Aonuma.

I think it's fair to consider FF7 the most impactful RPG as long as you don't pass it as a fact, because it's not an apples to apples comparison. It's not something that can easily be measured.

Last edited by Kyuu - 13 hours ago

BraLoD said:
Leynos said:

The most impactful RPGs are Ultima and Wizardry. Wizardry esp as every RPG esp JRPGS took from it. Aside from DnD itself, Wizardry is the most influential and impactful RPG series ever made. FF7 helped further popularize JRPGs in the west but no new genres or subgenres came from it nor mechanically anything new.

FF7 is often considered the most important RPG in gaming, it doesn't need to be the first to become that, as FF7 marked the change in status for the genre, RPGs are still relevant to people nowdays because almost 20 years ago FF7 made it go from niche to the biggest thing in the industry.

FF7 is important game for many reasons, but not the most important RPG in (video) gaming - that title goes to Ultima (and to some extent Wizardry, but its influence is more important for JRPGs).