Erd Tree bas no place in that list. It's laughable, I liked it but it's not a full game. Stellar Blade is a game from this year that should be in its place. I'm not even gonna tune into this clown show.

Metaphor could have been game of the year for me but for so many tiny issues that pulled up over the course of the long game and gave it a death by a thousand paper cuts. It had so much promise. 

I've not played anything else so I'll have to go with Astrobot as it's the one I know will be great cause it's a continuation of Rescue Mission and Playroom.  I'll probably get Astro and WuKong in before the end of the year but not before the awards. 

Not that I think they deserve the win but I think they deserve to be nominated for best RPG. Granblue Fantasy Relink and Visions of Mana. Both good games. DQ3 is incredible but came too late. How Persona 3R is not on the list I don't understand or SMTV-V. Phenomenal games. Dragon's Dogma II is a mess but is nominated rofl. Also Eiyuden Chronicles Hundred Heroes is a good game. I have not played the remake of Paper Mario TTYD yet.

I have both Remake/Rebirth but still have to play both.

It's not like Rebirth got bad reviews, it got a 92, and it's not the highest scored game that goes winning most GOTYs all the time.

Rebirth is FF7 done very right (take from basically everyone), that is a really, really big thing, we are talking about the most impactful RPG of all time here. And it's not like it's competing against a God of War, The Last of Us, Zelda or Rockstar game, not even directly with a proper From Software game, just a DLC.

Usually the game winning GOTY is the, or one of the in years with multiple of them, big respected game that seems like it pushed gaming foward technologically or artistically, or a game that is massive, that's what take the GOTYs most of the time. And Rebirth is the only game doing it this year, so for me it has it locked from the start.

Astro Bot is a short and sweet game, it's excellent in what it does but platformers are hardly real contenders for a GOTY, like other genres as fighting or racing games, for example, it's either big adventure, action or RPG games.

Metaphor is also a RPG like FF7 but it's not a big open world game, it will need to make a Persona-like fame before it can actually feel like a GOTY case. FF7 wins quite easily in scope against it.

Erdtree is a DLC, it won't win, like many here many of the actual votes will consider it as a detriment for it to be THE game, which it isn't, it isn't even a game, you need another game to even play it, it won't win. It's there to make a statement of how much a expansion actually delivered.

Wukong didn't even sit that well with reviwers, it is there to please the community, that's it, if we can get actual placements from 1 to 6 it's not making the top 3, for sure.

Balatro is an indie game, we are basically getting a 6th spot for a indie to be there in the last years, it will hardly have a chance against one of gaming biggest names like FF7, won't make the top 3 either.

So either you believe Astro Bot is capable of winning even being so short because of how incredibly good and unpolarizing it is, which I don't think it's enough for this year, or you believe they will actually consider a DLC the actual GOTY, when even Geoff made sure to create a barrier against it and himself saying he was not part of the decision of it even being there, it is his event, if the DLC wins what is a joke right now will become a potential actual problem for his event, he knows it, he proved it already, it just won't happen.

The most impactful RPGs are Ultima and Wizardry. Wizardry esp as every RPG esp JRPGS took from it. Aside from DnD itself, Wizardry is the most influential and impactful RPG series ever made. FF7 helped further popularize JRPGs in the west but no new genres or subgenres came from it nor mechanically anything new.

Metaphor isn't beating Rebirth, but it's guaranteed to "steal" a bunch of votes because the two games appeal to similar demographics. As long as publications pick their actual favorite of the two rather than politically ignore Metaphor for the sake of "the other great JRPG winning", Rebirth will lose a number of votes. Metaphor is definitely favored over Rebirth by a good number of people. Will it be enough to beat Rebirth? Probably not, but it could do some damage and indirectly help AstroBot.

I mostly agree on Wukong, Balatro, and Shadow of the Erdtree.

Reviews and scores are a little bit different. You can tell that AstroBot overall was better received than Rebirth, and that's not just because it score a couple of points higher on Metacritic and Opencritic. God of War was arguably better received than RDR2 even though it was 3 points behind. RDR2 got criticisms unexpressed by the inflated aggregated scores. Rebirth received a LOT of community complaints about padding, minigames, story/ending, and picture quality. AstroBot's complaints were minor in comparison. AstroBot is also significant in that it is Sony's first 3D Mario-tier platformer since... ever?... So some publications may pick it as a way to push Sony to that direction; to make more platformers and expand the remnants of Japan studio.

No JRPG ever won a major GOTY award. Platformers won a number of times. It Takes Two, which is often viewed as a platformer, is GOTY 2021.

I think it can go either way, but cheer with me for Rebirth, that's an order.

FF7 is often considered the most important RPG in gaming, it doesn't need to be the first to become that, as FF7 marked the change in status for the genre, RPGs are still relevant to people nowdays because almost 20 years ago FF7 made it go from niche to the biggest thing in the industry.

I agree that having 3 RPGs there will canibalize the audience and favor Astro Bot, but I still believe that is nowhere near enough for it to beat Rebirth.

It Takes Two would not come near winning most years, 2021 was arguably the weakest year in many, many years, the biggest game there was RE8 which would also not make the top 3 this year.

Elden Ring is a JRPG, too, and would you look at that 

FF7 being a JRPG and winning the GOTY there too would not surprise me in the slightest, it's FF7 afterall, a open world FF7 no less, it was made to win GOTY awards.

Usually the GOTY needs to fill at least 1, or more of this points to be elected:

1. Be technically impressive

2. Be artistically impressive

3. Be massive/have content to last long

4. Have a strong narrative/story

5. Have brand/franchise recognition

6. Studio/company have excellent track record

FF7 Rebirth fits all of those, all of them.

Astro Bot has 2, 6 because of Sony, and 1, but many would dimish it there because it's not a realistic focused game.

Metaphor have 2, 3, 4 and 6 because of Atlus.

Obviously have more points doesn't automatically make a game the winner, it's not math, as a game can be so, so good at only something as that matter more than others being good in more ways, but Rebirth really looks like a lock to me.

Final fantasy don't have the 6) 

The media and gaming journalists are dooming and glooming Square for a while now. The general consensus is Square a has-been developer, and none of their games are particularly groundbreaking anymore 

If anything an award would be used to push a "recover" narrative for Square after an year of very negative internet discourse 

Pretty much every Final Fantasy are still some of the biggest, well aclaimed JRPGs out there, they definitely have point 6 too.

what on earth is this list you've compiled here, BraLoD? Lol.

Point (1.) dismisses the fact that Nintendo has come very close to winning two of the past eight years (2017, 2023), and has been in the discussion for six of the past eight years (2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023).

Points (2.) & (6.) is satisfied by almost every nominee for GotY in any given year.

Point (3.) is a fair point: Usually open world AAA experiences do have a bit of a bias leaning in their favor. That's part of the reason why Astro isn't a lock for winning.

Point (4.) is very subjective, and dismisses the fact that four of the past eight years saw a winner from a game in which story took a backseat compared to gameplay (2017 BotW, 2021 It Takes Two, 2022 Elden Ring, 2023 Baldur's Gate 3).

Point (5.) is arguably wrong. Originality is a positive, not a negative. (2013 TLoU, 2016 Overwatch, 2019 Sekiro, 2021 It Takes Two, 2022 Elden Ring, 2023 Baldur's Gate 3 (first entry in over two decades).)

...This is not to say I disagree with your conclusion that FFVIIRebirth is gonna win, though you're reasoning here with this arbitrary list of broad and subjective factors is a bit off imo.