This is mainly for the poll but let's also discuss arguments for or against Global tensions, Russia and Ukraine, Isreal going off script, China with eyes on Taiwan. The economy as it is and so on and so fourth. 

Early stages and the makings of a global conflict aside, at what point would you consider we are in a full World War 3? China taking Taiwan. Isreal and Iran directly fighting? Both..

No, The USA, China, and all of USA allies do not want war, so it won't happen. None of the biggest countries that would suffer in their GDP wants to go to war with each other and will avoid it at all costs. Money is always more important.

Exactly. Money is more important. Oil is enough to go to war, Taiwan is exceptionally significant to the US and China for computer tech. The SCS is also of great financial value. No body ever wants war, the US tried to be isolationist during early WW2 and they simply couldn't, it came to meet them. Isreal has gone rouge. Russia has gone rogue since 2014. The economy is collapsing almost and a war economy would save people a lot of financial ruin. 

Israel can't do much without US support and the US has made it clear they do not want to be dragged into a war with Iran. Israel can still do a lot of damage in the ME but it won't spread into a world war.

Iran also does not want a war with Israel or the USA. They turned the retaliation foe the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus into a big light show after informing the US and allies of what they were sending and when. Iran also still hasn't responded to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh. Iran wants to keep their deterrence (they're bound to do something) yet will be careful not to escalate.

Russia has little left to fight with, they have their hands full with Ukraine. The US is happy to keep the grind going, let Ukraine keep killing Russian draft soldiers while telling Ukraine not to escalate.

China is looking more for economic power. Last they did was broker a trade deal between Iran and Saudi-Arabia. Why would they want to blow that up again. China is its own economic powerhouse. They don't need Taiwan, but it's an ego thing for President Xi like Ukraine is for Putin. China could still take Taiwan as the West has shown they won't do much. However China has too much to lose from sanctions.

War economy does not save people from financial ruin. Over 40,000 businesses are going bankrupt in Israel due to the war(s). The only ones profiting from war are the ones making the weapons.

The US would do well in a war economy as long as the war is over seas. The factories are ready to be converted to weapons manufacturing quick and easy. Already they are making money selling arms, no? 

It's more than an ego thing with Xi, they really want Tawian back, it's a matter that same as here in Ireland, many want the Northern province reunited with the republic but in Chinas case this won't be as easy as Hong Kong was to snatch (remember that, no? That's the idea) They will try to get it back and the west will not allow this wheter it's Trump or Kamala. There's two great books you should read if you're interested by Robert Spalding. Called Stealth War and a follow up called War without rules. It explains in great detail how China operates and how this would be difficult for the west to confront. They're already fighting by proxy even if they won't admit it, Ukraine and Isreal are about as much as the US fighting China than themselves fighting. China has the US wasted resources backing these fights while China is sitting back relaxing. 

Again, I say this is a new age of warfare, one with the internet and things that weren't even dreamt of in ww2. Operations like that with the walkie talkies. Stuxnet. The recent russian propaganda a few weeks back where they tricked a load of fools into propagandizing for them in the US like Tim Pool. And so on. 

It could play out very oddly. Unmanned drones attacking unmanned drones for example. Hacks on infrastructure that would do severe damage like stuxnet. If they don't go to a hot war like in the past and we are in a cold War now or enter a cold war we'll never get out of it cuase of the Internet, it'll be forever.  

World War won't come until the vast majority of people are inconvenienced. This won't happen until prices for oil starts becoming unsustainable in 30+ years. Everyone will predict it though, so even then we might pull through and prevent ourselves from killing each other.

No. Russia is running out of steam and even China is getting more and more reluctant to even supply Russia. They already stopped banking with Russia some weeks ago. Iran is just selling missles, and their only motivation is to make $$$$.

So it's more of a non-issue.

That being said, Europe is somewhat worried because they got caught with their pants down so to speak, when they have recently spent less than average on defense. But i don't think that anything will come of this other than Europe spending more on defense. Russia has lost many officers and many of its stored vehicles (tanks, artillery, etc etc) and it would get its ass kicked if they tried to do anything after such a long costly war. They literally can't do this again, much less against NATO.

China is indeed playing the long game. Watch the US decline while extending their influence in the ME and Asia.

And yes electronic warfare will be the future. Hence the developments in AI are so worrying. WW3 will likely be fought by AI. Israel is already using AI to select targets based on meshing intelligence streams. (Often gets it wrong but that's not stopping anything)

The world is already at war, never stopped. 70 countries participated in WW2 while 150 armed conflicts are ongoing today. WW2 was the deadliest and hopefully we never get to that point again, bombing entire cities to the ground. (Well Israel is doing it in Gaza :/)

However the global economy is very much dependent on global trade today. There is too much to lose and not much to gain. The big powers are dependent on each other. Yet there will always be more tyrants. To prevent WW3 humanity needs to find a way to stop people like Putin, Netanyahu, Khamenei, Xi, Trump getting into power.

No. Right now, everyone is terrified of a major war. Russia is absolutely terrified of having to fight the West, since they're just barely managing against Ukraine when it's receiving very limited support from the West. No one in Europe wants to get involved, because no one wants war. The US doesn't want to get involved, probably because a ton of reasons, many of them probably related to escalation/opportunism. Israel might want a war, but it would be really risky without US support, which they don't seem to have for a large war. Iran doesn't want a war, because it would drag the US into it. China doesn't want a war with Taiwan, because they don't feel like they're ready for it yet. The US is not going to start a war in Taiwan, because what reason do they have to start a war there.

Now if the US was involved in a major conflict that's not Taiwan, that might prompt China to take advantage of the situation, but it doesn't seem like we're getting there. I'm also not sure even a war in Taiwan would escalate into a world war, because I don't think it's in anyone's interests to wage more than a limited war outside Taiwan.

China definitely wants to take Taiwan, and it's probably going to involve a war. They're just not comfortable with initiating it just yet, but at this rate, I would be very surprised if it didn't happen sooner or later.

I'm not sure this is necessarily true. Based on my (limited) reading, US actions prior to Pearl Harbor were quite escalatory, as the US didn't just let Japan do whatever it wishes. I'm not sure I'd call that isolationist or calling the war something that just happened to come to meet them. To me, it seems like among the US leadership, it was accepted that the actions they took might lead to the US getting involved in the war.

Ground water running out everywhere is a issue. (desalination is expensive, and not easy to do)
Global warming, rising sea levels... food scarcity.
On top of the oil becoming prohibitively expensive in the next 30 years.

I could see that leading to wars.