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Forums - General - The Articifical Intelligence thread.

 

AGI/ASI will be..

A great advancement 7 33.33%
 
A poor advancement 6 28.57%
 
Like summoning a demon. 5 23.81%
 
Like summoning God. 1 4.76%
 
No opinion on what AGI/ASI will be like. 2 9.52%
 
Total:21


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SvennoJ said:

You might want to read Jean Baudrillard. We're getting to the fourth and final stage where the real is replaced by the hyperreal. What to do? Even if you crack down on the big players, smaller companies hosted in less regulated countries will have access to increasingly sophisticated models that will outperform anything Veo or Sora are doing today in due time. 

I suspect, however, this state of complete epistemic collapse isn't qualitatively worse than the polarized bubbles TV networks and social media created, it just compounds on it.



 

 

 

 

 

You know who the real victim
Of AI is? Weird Fucking Al. Because all
the standard fonts don’t differentiate between an upper case i and a lower case L, he just looks like Weird ai now. Not cool. Not cool at all.



It's impossible to pivot, it would destroy the entire global economy. It'd be a global great depression. It's too late.



An interesting discussion with Andrej Karpathy on AI. 10 years-ish sounds like a reasonable timeline to me (but there are a lot of people, consciously or not, who don't like 2030s timelines because it means China is more likely to achieve it first than the "free world").



 

 

 

 

 

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SvennoJ said:

I very much support more regulation on AI, and high taxes on institutions that automate away jobs to fund expansive unemployment insurance programs which hopefully would evolve into a UBI. 

Having said that, I don't think AI can be simultaneously an imminent bubble about to bust soon and and lead to mass unemployment (soon). If it leads to mass unemployment (soon) it isn't about to bust, because right there are the real gains to the investment. The AI companies can start increasing prices for their "agents" to replace workers, and as long as the prices are cheaper than the workers without affecting productivity drastically, they'll have consumers. This is also why AI companies have transitioned from scaling base models and fundamental research (Google and Nvidia being the exceptions) to improving the ability of AI-supported tools to perform tasks. 

I do think in the medium-term (two - five years from now) we're going to experience a pretty enormous AI-induced crash. But it will be an indirect result rather than an AI bubble. This crash won't be because AI companies weren't able to profit, but will be the result of depressed aggregate demand due to low incomes/high unemployment. What will happen is that profits will stay pretty high for a few years until incomes drop so low that nobody can buy many of the products companies are producing. The FED (and other central banks), worried about a deflationary spiral and an economic slump will reduce interest rates to foster lending and hiring while the government goes into stimulus mode, but that isn't enough. Hopefully, if we're lucky, the U.S will elect a center-left leader, taxes will be raised, and relief will come, probably in the form of something like a new public works program since Americans are too Calvinistic for UBI and the infrastructure needs rebuilt anyway. If we're unlucky, the system collapses into a depression and we can't really predict what happens other than whatever does happen will be radical. I think the latter scenario is more likely, to be honest, and if that happens I hope socialists win rather than fascists/neo-feudalists. 



sc94597 said:
SvennoJ said:

I very much support more regulation on AI, and high taxes on institutions that automate away jobs to fund expansive unemployment insurance programs which hopefully would evolve into a UBI. 

Having said that, I don't think AI can be simultaneously an imminent bubble about to bust soon and and lead to mass unemployment (soon). If it leads to mass unemployment (soon) it isn't about to bust, because right there are the real gains to the investment. The AI companies can start increasing prices for their "agents" to replace workers, and as long as the prices are cheaper than the workers without affecting productivity drastically, they'll have consumers. This is also why AI companies have transitioned from scaling base models and fundamental research (Google and Nvidia being the exceptions) to improving the ability of AI-supported tools to perform tasks. 

I do think in the medium-term (two - five years from now) we're going to experience a pretty enormous AI-induced crash. But it will be an indirect result rather than an AI bubble. This crash won't be because AI companies weren't able to profit, but will be the result of depressed aggregate demand due to low incomes/high unemployment. What will happen is that profits will stay pretty high for a few years until incomes drop so low that nobody can buy many of the products companies are producing. The FED (and other central banks), worried about a deflationary spiral and an economic slump will reduce interest rates to foster lending and hiring while the government goes into stimulus mode, but that isn't enough. Hopefully, if we're lucky, the U.S will elect a center-left leader, taxes will be raised, and relief will come, probably in the form of something like a new public works program since Americans are too Calvinistic for UBI and the infrastructure needs rebuilt anyway. If we're unlucky, the system collapses into a depression and we can't really predict what happens other than whatever does happen will be radical. I think the latter scenario is more likely, to be honest, and if that happens I hope socialists win rather than fascists/neo-feudalists. 

While the 'OR' scenario is just as bad, failure and bubble burts -> recession OR works and millions of jobs lost -> recession (massive reduction in buying power), it can also be both when for example cheap Chinese AI completely obliterates the hopes of charging a lot for American AI agents.

The latter is the real fear for the bubble bursting, AI is in a race who gets there first. The entire US economy seems to be betting on betting trillions of dollars into being the first to get 'job replacing' AI. 

And just like blue collar jobs were outsourced to cheap labor countries, AI can just as easily be outsourced to cheaper systems... Quality nor 'loyalty' was never a priority for capitalism, profits are, so AI jobs will also go to the cheapest bidder, and that shift is a lot easier than building factories in China and offices in India.

So if AI succeeds in taking over jobs, cheaper AI can just as well succeed in taking over the US AI made at enormous investments. It's like building the first ultra expensive car manufacturing factory in Detroit, just to be replaced a year later or even before opening by overseas production. No time to recoup the investments.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/11/low-cost-chinese-ai-models-forge-ahead-even-us-raising-risks-us-ai-bubble


Anyway the US economy is fucked either way :/ Bubble burst, vast unemployment surge or both.

But temporarily profits can go up if AI works to replace those jobs before cheap AI... Until common people run out of money. Then yep, either deflation, UBI or massive unrest. And millions of people sitting at home all day fuming on the internet isn't going to go well either :/

We live in interesting times :(



SvennoJ said:

Kyle is still as narrow minded as he was when he was a decade ago, he still has the fundamental belief that everything works in the political Sphere and everything is controlled my those in power or the 1% which is clearly not true, they have fuck all of an idea most of the time. In this video he is completely blind to simple things like IT peoples propensity to want to build and advance things and the power that humanities collective consequences has, the man needs to learn about game theory the concept of Molach. He is so annoying when he takes every problem and circles it around to blame a politician, or 1%er. It's mind boggling short sighted that he hasn't gained any level of awareness that sometimes large groups of people just do things that hurt ourselves or commit to things that are of benifet but have severe consequences that are out of our control yet we can't stop and there is noone with a finger on the button. I bet he thinks climate change is whitin the control of government's. This is the first video I've seen of him in years and the last, my God he is so narrow minded and hyper focused on his little political Sphere like it's the cause and solution to all of the Universes problems but I guess it keeps the pay checks rolling in, hypocrite. 



I think it's plausible the marginal cost of labor decreases instead of increasing as jovs are automated. If employers see an AI productivity boost as mostly independent of employee quality, for instance.

At the same time, most labor (excluding the jobs that are reduntant/automatable already) is full of small little moments of zero-shot learning and analogical reasoning that even a pretty general and flexible AI model (say, one that saturates ~ all current benchmarks by 2030) will likely struggle with them in the short to mid term. So the automation of labor will take a long time, perhaps enough to deal with the societal and economic concerns around it.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 21 November 2025