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I think it's plausible the marginal cost of labor decreases instead of increasing as jovs are automated. If employers see an AI productivity boost as mostly independent of employee quality, for instance.

At the same time, most labor (excluding the jobs that are reduntant/automatable already) is full of small little moments of zero-shot learning and analogical reasoning that even a pretty general and flexible AI model (say, one that saturates ~ all current benchmarks by 2030) will likely struggle with them in the short to mid term. So the automation of labor will take a long time, perhaps enough to deal with the societal and economic concerns around it.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 21 November 2025