2024 has been a much MUCH better year for games than 2023. 2023 kind of sucked. As for the TGA's. Don't give a shit. They're trash. Too many ads. Doesn't actually celebrate games. They're as bad as the VGA's in a different way. Stop putting importance on Geoff the corp shill. But the trailers! Watch them on YouTube after that. Played a lot of great games this year but so far it's Stellad Blade and Space Marine 2 after that for me.

My personal GotY is an extremely tight competition between these two titles. Astro Bot is a platforming experience with enough polish to rival Mario’s best, Zelda has blown me away with its creativity and openness. I’ll be rooting for Astro in TGA, though personal pick will likely be Zelda for the sole purpose of it being much longer as well accompanied with a fun story.

Lol what, 2023 was of the best years in a long time. Tears of the kingdom, Alan wake 2, baldurs gate 3, mario wonder, spider man 2, hi-fi rush, cocoon, pikmin 4, Street fighter 6, pizza tower, dave the diver, jedi survivor, starfield, lies of p, final fantasy 16 and more. I'd say 2024 has been one of the worst years in a long time, still has some very enjoyable games but still feels like an off year overall.

Hi Fi Rush was great but most of what you listed I had no interest in for found to be a letdown. I got some good stuff out of 2023 but I was dry most of the year. Hi Fi Rush and Cyberfunk were rare bright spots along with LaD Gaiden.  2024 has been much better. So far I have gotten Like a Dragon Infinite Wealth. Persona 3R. Granblue Relink. FF7 Rebirth. Stellar Blade. Macross Shooting Insight. Radirgy 2 (blown away this got a sequel after 18 years) Eiyuden Chronicles. Visions of Mana. Port of Assault Suit Leynos 2. Wolf Fang. Space Marine 2. Waited so long for a good SP TPS like this. Slave Zero X (again blown away Slave Zero got a new game) Shin Megami Tensei V-Vengence. Gundam Breaker 4 (waited 8 years) Cosmic Fantasy 1-2 were finally localized after a 30-year wait. A new contra. Metaphor out next month. Along with Ys X. Capcom Arcade Collection. Dragon Quest III Remake.

Usually to win the TGA, you need two things:
1. High critic scores
2. Be popular

So far Black Myth Wukong and Zelda are the most likely winners.

I still think it's a little early to put down the chips on anything but since the thread is here might as well.

If you ask me the winner is predictable, but the nominee lists are much trickier. I'd expect something like this:

• Astro Bot
• Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
• Tekken 8
• Balatro or Animal Well
• Echoes of Wisdom
• Helldivers 2 or Space Marine 2 (I think western award shows break out in a cold sweat at the thought of having only japanese games and indies)

Only the top two stand an actual chance, but I'd definitely put my money on Astro Bot since Rebirth is a sequel, a remake and a JRPG.

A few slighly less likely candidates would be Wukong, Yakuza and Dragon's Dogma II. I'm sure some shows will go fuck it and nominate Shadow of the Erdtree as well.

As for games that are yet to release I think only Dragon Age: Veilguard could theoretically stand a chance, Metaphor is too japanese and Indiana Jones is releasing in december and most Game Awards insist on deciding the game of the year before the year is over. Honestly Veilguard isn't entirely far fetched since there's so little western competition.

I think the most likely top winner at the Game Awards will be Astro Bot. It's exceedingly high-rated, highly popular, factually excellent, in proper 3D (an important determinant), and part of a familiar, but not overly familiar, and increasingly beloved first-party franchise that feels strikingly fresh at this moment.

I feel like Final Fantasy fascination is a largely generational thing for the gamer of a certain age who was young when the original version of FF7 came out decades ago and was the hit RPG of a generation that enjoys disproportionate representation on VGC. It's probably not where the kids are today in terms of franchises they keep up. Notice that no Final Fantasy installment has yet won the GOTY while a good number of Western RPGs have at this point, by contrast. Name recognition is an important ingredient to victory at the Game Awards. FF7: Rebirth has built up a sufficient reputation that it still has a slim chance, I think, but the simple fact is that even the biggest in Japanese RPGs simply haven't won the ultimate award at these shows yet.

The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom can possibly ride in on its brand popularity as part of the Legend of Zelda franchise, the Nintendo name, and general creativity and longevity (important qualities for winning the top award), but I would point out that, fairly or unfairly, it has two definite disadvantages when it comes to what sorts of games win the top award that I think combine to make the big victory unlikely: it's a top-down perspective game rather than a proper 3D title and it centers on a female protagonist specifically rather than optionally. Only one specifically female-centric title has ever won GOTY at the Game Awards to date and it was definitely the most expensive one of its release year: The Last of Us Part II. So, in other words, Echoes of Wisdom would have to make history in a bigger way than either Astro Bot or FF7: Rebirth to win. I would also point out, on top of that, 2017's Breath of the Wild remains the only Legend of Zelda installment to take home GOTY at the Game Awards, so the question then becomes: does Echoes of Wisdom strike you as being on par with the entry that won in terms of rapport?

That's my reasoning. It's not necessarily a total match for my own preferences, but it's what I think is most likely to happen based on the slew of games that are currently available. I think Astro Bot would be a deserving winner. I also think all three of those games would probably be deserving winners. (I'm still playing through Echoes of Wisdom right now, so I don't have a full perspective on the game yet.) But I also think that many deserving contenders released this year are ones that have no chance owing to simple factors like relative or severe lack of name recognition and as such would be lucky to even get nominated, let alone win. That certainly includes a lot of my personal favorites released this year so far, such as 1000xRESIST, Lorelei and the Laser Eyes, Animal Well, Nine Sols, Senua's Saga, Black Myth: Wukong, and UFO 50. It may be kind of cheating to even mention these next two because they're only in the early access stage as yet, but I'd also add being highly impressed with what's available of Hades II and Ender Magnolia so far. I wish some of those games had a chance too because in a more perfect world, they would.

2024 has been really poor in GOTY material. Lack of Nintendo, Rockstar and Sony games can be noted. Well Sony had Astrobot at least. So far the shortlist is:

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth

Astrobot

And that's it. Yeah, that short lol. The other possibly nominees are not guaranteed, because you need a combination of qualities such as branding (prestige/lobby), sales, quality, production value and impact to get nominated which I don't think any other game released this year had. Nonetheless they still need 5 nominees, so other possible choices are

- Dragons Dogma 2, because it's a Capcom game with high production value, good sales and good critics reception. It's an open world game in a year with lack of open world games. 

- Zelda EOW, because it's from Nintendo and will likely sell well. Positive reviews though not world shattering. Low production values are playing against it.

- Metaphor Refantazio. Persona5 got a nomination so this one have a shot due to weak completion. What plays against it is the existence of Final Fantasy, no RPG can compete with Final Fantasy in production value, popularity or branding. Read: There is no Like a Dragon being nominated 

- Tekken 8. I know fighting games never get nominated, but this year being really weak can give this a chance. Not feeling it though 

- Black Myth Wulkong, because of its sales really. Reviews are poor and I doubt more than 1 million people really played it outside of China. Being from a Chinese company also plays against it. But internet discourse is strongly favoring this game so it will get a nomination. It's by far the fighting game with better production value this year, stomping things like Porn doll Stellar Blade

- Warhammer 40k Space Marine 2. it's probably selling a lot and Tablet Top RPG based games are more popular thanks to Baldurs Gate. There is not much options for high production shooters and action games this year, so it might secure a nomination 

- An indie game will complete the shortlist. I don't know which though, I was thinking on Hades II but it's in EA. I would normally root for Satisfactory, which is a great game, but it's too PC-centric and it's a simulation game which for some reason journalists think it's not as good as story driven games 

BTW Astrobot is totally winning. Nope, it's not because it's the best game of this year (it is, but it's not the reason behind the winning)

Yes I know it's "just a platformer" but it's from Sony. Sony just have released their 3D Mario, industry will do whatever they can to uplift this game

Balatro

It has taken over my life