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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Chrkeller said:
burninmylight said:

And a well-known homosexual. That was never going to fly in conservative Middle America

Except he won mayor in Indiana.  He is well respected by middle America.  

Edit

He had a better chance than Biden and Harris.  He was the better pick, imo.

And don't forget middle America, to a large degree, embraced Obama.  

Writing off Pete is a huge mistake.  He has charisma.  

Minorities win mayoral elections often enough, yet we've only had one as president. Obama galvanized a huge sector of typically nonvoting minorities to show up in droves that H. Clinton and Harris could not. Bible thumpers are more comfortable with a black man in office than a woman or a gay man. I agree that Pete got that rizz though.



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the-pi-guy said:
KLAMarine said:

Democrats need to nominate a billionaire celebrity next time. But who?.. Mark Cuban?

Nah, money needs to get as far away from politics as possible. 

Sorry to break it to you Mr pi guy but politics and money are two sides of the same coin so you really can't separate that.  I know that you're just being an idealist though.  



Also, i think that the vast majority of americans are going to be disgusted with Trump by the end of office. He's really going to be showing his ass. JD Vance may have a difficult time campaigning in 4 years time to set up a Democrat win.



EnricoPallazzo said:

I have the "benefit" of participating in discussions in both fields, which allows me to have some kind of insight on what both sides think. My ignorant and non scientific view would be:

1) Inflation, Inflation, Inflation. I won't go into specifics as it would require a book instead of a post, but people cannot correlate the increase in GDP and low unemployment with the absurd loss of purchase power the average Joe suffered. A lot of economic growth has come from huge government spending and debt (since Obama 2 but it got much worse under Trump 1 and Biden) which creates inflation. Due to several factors, this does not necessarily reflects on the official government numbers, so Joe Doe looks at "official" inflation rates of 3% but his rent, food, gas, mortgage, everything is WAY more expensive than a few years ago, when Trump was in power. Saying "we have the strongest economy" or "USA GDP is really growing" says nothing to Joe Doe if now he needs to go into credit card debt to pay for everyday stuff.

The inflation of 2021-2024 was caused directly by Covid stimulus. If it was just a matter of the U.S having a more generous stimulus spending during the Obama and pre-Covid Trump periods, then the U.S would be a leader in the pack among developed countries (as most countries took more austere positions after the Great Recession.) But the U.S was about middle of the pack when it came to inflation. 

So yes, increasing the money-supply and injecting it into the economy through stimulus packages is definitely the cause of the 2021-2024 inflation, but what other choice did the U.S government (or any other national government) have? Remember, both Democrats and Republicans voted for the Covid stimulus packages, including the PPP loans, robust unemployment insurance, and the stimulus checks. People were locked down with not much to do, so they went into a spending frenzy. Supply chains couldn't keep up without their former workforce. You were bound to get inflation. But the alternative situation would've been much, much worse. We would've entered a severe recession with unemployment rates in the double-digits and a slow recovery. More people would have died from Covid than those who did. So the inflationary spending was a lesser of two evils, and nobody really was questioning it (other than a few fiscal hawks) in 2020. It's only after Biden was elected that you started to see the rest of conservatives (other than fiscal hawks) start to question it. 



IkePoR said:
sc94597 said:

The fact that inflation is the main reason why Trump won, and his two main policies: tariffs and deporting undocumented workers are highly inflationary is a great irony. 

Trump will succeed the most by not succeeding in his campaign promises here. 

Why are tariffs inflationary? The point of tariffs are to create a price-floor to make local manufacturing competitive with foreign manufacturing. They are taxes designed to make up for the fact that companies can underpay workers abroad to sell products at a lower price (while netting some margin with the arbitration for themselves.) The whole point of them is to make sure prices go up. 

Why is deportation inflationary? Many industries that almost all Americans consume and were complaining about price-increases in: construction, farming, housekeeping, and child-care have 10-30% of their workforce as undocumented immigrants. If you deport them, that gives the remaining workers more bargaining power and ability to request higher wages. This is good for those workers of course, but the business/owners are going to want to offset a part of that onto their customers. 

If we could teleport back in time and give Democrats a message, they should have focused on how to explain this to as many people as possible, while pushing the fact that they were ready to subsidize child-care, home-purchasing, etc and save Americans money. They should have also found a way to explain that while inflation was high over the course of the pandemic it has finally come down and while they are still not feeling the effects it takes a bit of time for these effects to be felt/noticed, just as it did for the high inflation of 2022 to be felt in 2023 and 2024. Democrats just threw graphs at these people without doing the work to ELI5 for them. 

Edit:   
Democrats love to talk about how they appeal to the educated, without doing the work to appeal to the less formally educated by educating them in a non-condescending manner. That is what needs to change. 

Can you explain how to improve the economy in a non-inflationary manner, and that is better than tariffs? 

Essentially what the Fed has been doing, they got inflation under control by raising interest rates so the cost of borrowing money (business loans/credit cards/mortgages) went up and decreases demand but did so in a slow and steady process in order to prevent a recession and mass layoffs.

Now that inflation is close to its ~2% goal, they have started to lower interest rates, but also in a slow and steady process so demand doesn’t explode and cause inflation to kick back in.

Inflation has stabilized but prices are still up from the high inflation of 2022/2023 and they aren’t going to come back down, the way to lower the cost of living is by having wages grow at a faster rate than inflation which is what had been happening over the past year.

The most recent data I believe is inflation +2.4% & wages +4.1% year over year. We need to see this continue for the next few years and people will slowly but surely feel their purchasing power increase.

The problem is that most people don’t understand the economy and don’t want to hear that it’s a slow process that gradually gets better, they want to hear a simple and quick fix. Trump went with promoting tariffs and Harris went with cracking down on price gouging. For many people their view on the economy might be as simple as “Trump’s a business man and prices were lower under him and Harris is the current VP so why aren’t her and Biden already doing what she’s proposing?”



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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I’ll admit @Chrkeller was right. Democrats are terrible messengers and they need to simply hammer down on economic issues that resonate with people who are struggling, basically what Bernie Sanders was trying to sell.

He supports progressive social issues but his main message was always about things like increasing wages, strengthening unions, bringing back outsourced jobs, fighting against the establishment, etc. In an election year where the cost of living was the main concern that people had, this message would likely have done much better.

When people feel like the economy and their quality of life is good then you can focus on social issues but when people are struggling to afford rent and groceries, trans issues and abortion aren’t going to sway them.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

I’ll admit @Chrkeller was right. Democrats are terrible messengers and they need to simply hammer down on economic issues that resonate with people who are struggling, basically what Bernie Sanders was trying to sell.

He supports progressive social issues but his main message was always about things like increasing wages, strengthening unions, bringing back outsourced jobs, fighting against the establishment, etc. In an election year where the cost of living was the main concern that people had, this message would likely have done much better.

When people feel like the economy and their quality of life is good then you can focus on social issues but when people are struggling to afford rent and groceries, trans issues and abortion aren’t going to sway them.

Thank you and nothing but respect.  You deserve credit.  And hopefully things flip in the mid terms.  As a country we are on the wrong path.  



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I disagreed or would have disagreed on the basis that "Democrats abandoned these groups". I don't think that's true. 

But Democrats as a whole are horrible messengers on a good day. Although I personally think a lot of that comes down to Democrats having an inherently more complicated platform. For one obvious reason trying to appeal to more kinds of groups. 

Chrkeller mentioned Buttigieg, right? 

I was going to point out that Tammy Baldwin won in Wisconsin despite being openly gay and a woman, and did better than Harris did. 

I don't know if Buttigieg would have made a difference, but I think he's a very good messenger. 




More evidence that this election could have been a lot worse if 1. Biden didn't drop out or 2. Kamala didn't run as strong of a campaign as she did (infra-structurally.) 

This along with this tweet I shared in another post, strongly hints that the Democrats would have had to run an exceptional once-in-lifetime campaign to win. Just sucks that this happened at the same time Donald Trump was running on the GOP side. If only we didn't have a FPTP system. 



Do you know what would be extremely funny. If he actually started fixing things for Americans, like the cost of living, homelessness, women's rights that have been removed lately and so on. I'm watching people melt down again like 2016 and like...ffs, he was in before and the world didn't end. People are pushed to live in fear of "the other side" and trump being Hitler. I'll eat my pants if this man starts showing signs of a fascist regime, he's the biggest attention whore the world has ever seen, all he wants is love and he hates the fact that people hate him. He'll do whatever it takes to win as many peoples favour as possible, even actually making the country better.
People outside of America, us Europeans have more to worry about than the Americans themselves, we're the ones who are gonna get fucked by foreign policy changes if he's intent on changing things. All I'm saying is it's done with now, give it a chance and see where this leads to, if it leads to ruin push back at the prick but if it leads to success don't berate the bastard, give him what he wants. Give him praise.