I think Wisconsin will be fine. 

Wisconsin is a fairly blue state, that's heavily gerrymandered.  

Imho, I may be wrong, but I think culture wars is a pointless political angle, I don't believe it's that effective, things like crying about stuff being "woke" and throwing a tantrum at the sight of a trans-person. What is effective is what has always been effective which is the economy, also immigration is sadly effective for hate because immigration is linked to the economy too, immigrants will be blamed why you can't get a job, why you can't get a house, why you can't afford anything, why hospitals are crumbling, etc.

But how can you link all this stuff to whether someone has a dick or not in their pants? Whether someone identifies as a man or woman? I don't believe most people give a single fuck about this stuff and here in UK it's what the Tories tried and I feel like people grew sick of it very quickly. Maybe I'm wrong for America but all these ads say is "This person is doing something I don't like in their own privacy!" and it's like "Okay, so how do I benefit or how does this hurt me?" and to that question, the answer is "It doesn't affect you at all"

Lets be honest, a lot of people are selfish but in this case, being selfish helps because then they would respond with "Okay, shut up, tell me how you're going to improve my life" and the answer to that question isn't "Hate trans people" cause how on Earth could it be? How can you say an extremely small minority of people are overloading hospitals? Are taking your jobs? Are the reason there's no available houses? Are the reason that you can't afford groceries? Etc...You can't...Not in any shred of logical explanation.

Now the economy, your bills, the housing market, your own bodily autonomy, those things actually benefit the voter, not what someone gets up to in their private lives and Tbh, I think this culture war shit does largely come from the internet echo chamber, it's a bit like in gaming, when people start pissing their pants about a character having pronouns, the internet makes it seem like a big deal but in reality, the majority of gamers not permanently glued to their PC screens do not give a fuck about it, at least I like to believe that. The Trump campaign team comes across like it is ran by edge-lord permanently online losers who have never taken a step out in the real world and actually spoken to real people, Lol.

Anyway, I think independent women break in large numbers for Harris too and they're an extremely reliable voting block, I also think she'll actually manage to get a decent amount of Republican women too, I think like in 2022, people are once again underestimating women in a Post-Dobbs environment. Ever since 2022 it has felt to me like American women are PISSED and rightfully so. Meanwhile Trump is trying to court the manosphere dude-bros which could be effective...If they actually show up to vote, which is unlikely.

While that may be true, gerrymandering only applies to the House in federal elections. Senators are elected by direct popular vote in every state, and the President is elected by a winner takes all process in every state except Nebraska and Maine. Hovde is a truly awful person who has been polling far too close to Baldwin for comfort.

Time marches on and the age of a new king draws nearer.

...seriously, it's getting pretty close now.

It’s widely supported in Florida, which is why DeSantis is resorting to lawfare to defeat it. Abortion rights passed in Ohio and Kansas, which are both red. 

Kansas, the home of murdered physician George Tiller and his murderer, Scott Roeder, is now an aborton rights sanctuary for women in western Missouri and Oklahoma. 

That's the oxymoron surrounding trump.  He can act as horrible as he likes and yet voters still love him.  I think that in this election at least, the voters want style and attitude more than substance.  

If we've learned anything about Republican politicians in the last ten years, it's that they want to get in power for power's sake. Hence why they've aligned themselves behind Trump no matter how stupid it would make them look like.

So if they are now turning against Trump, this late in the game right before an election, it's not because they've suddenly grown a spine. The rats-fleeing-the-ship theory is correct, because Trump is so off the mark on (perceived) conservative values by now - fiscal responsibility, economy, party of law and order, defense of the constitution - that continued backing of this loser will likely result in political death for his supporters; meaning their chances for their own re-election whenever it's coming up will drastically decrease.

If Republicans lose this election too, then Trump's record will be one of a fluky win in 2016, followed by disappointments in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Trump's mental decay that we can already witness today will make him completely unelectable in 2028, so this is his final run for office; nevermind that all the court cases against him will proceed after an election loss in 2024, new ones will be opened and he would be unelectable in 2028 even if still in great mental condition. Indeed, this is the time for the rats to leave the ship because they heard Liz Cheney's words. Paraphrased, "There will come a time when Donald Trump is gone, but the dishonor you did to this country won't be."

Or Queen 👀

We already had a new King anyway, his name is Charles, wish we didn't but hey, I understand the confusion though, with the way a large group of Americans treat Donald Trump it's easy to believe that they'd want to be ruled by a monarchy again, maybe Britain should take back control

It's a reference from Metaphor Refantazio and oh, yes, it's so sickening the way the Americans worship these candidates like pop stars, turns my stomach. We should be angry with politicians by default and weary of them, hold them to a standard but not idolise them. 

I'm aware. I'm pretty confident that Baldwin will win. 

She won by 11 points in 2018 and 5.5 points in 2012. She vastly outperformed Tony Evers in 2018, and 2022 had Evers at +3.5.

I'm starting to really feel like a lot of these polls are closer than they probably should be.