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SanAndreasX 5 days ago
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JWeinCom said:
Jaicee said:

Alright, I voted for Kamala Harris and Colin Allred yesterday in what was the easiest vote of my life, so if the alternatives win, it won't be my fault. If current early voting trends hold though, Trump will win, and I don't just mean Texas, so if you're an American then please get your ass in gear and go vote if you haven't already! (Except if you're a MAGA Republican. Then you can stay home.)

I would take that with a very large grain of salt. The article's source is a "journalist" from Newsmax, so I would not put it past him to lie.

Moreover, they specifically mention Nevada as one of two states. The problem with that is that Nevada is not typical. While Democrats usually win big in mail in/early voting, Nevada is a state that is almost all mail in voting. So, you would not expect the mail in vote to lean much one way or the other. It's also important to note that in Nevada, most of the vote, and most of the Democratic vote, will come from one county, Clark County, so who is up or down will likely depend on which counties have counted most at this point.

The other big issue is that of course, 2020 was a very different time cause of the whole Covid thing. It is quite possible, and I'd go so far as to say likely, that many Democrats who would have otherwise voted on election day voted early or by mail. I would not expect the same kind of gap we saw in 2020. That said, Democrats have been outvoting Republicans substantially so far in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and it is somewhat telling that those states are not mentioned in the article. 

I would not be too concerned by that article. There is a definite effort my Republicans to create a Trump is winning narrative so if he loses they can make another case for a stolen election. I think this is part of that. 

Arizona is another state where most people vote by mail, thanks to the fact that the state is very sparsely populated outside of five or six urban areas. Trump is up by 2 there in overall polls, yet Gallego is up by 8 points over Kari Lake. I don't get the disconnect. The majority of voters clearly understand that Lake is not fit for office, yet they don't apply that to Trump. Lake has deliberately made herself a female carbon copy of Trump (TV personality, conspiracy theories, and baseless claims of election fraud.) She was also a frequent guest at Mar-a-Lago and received numerous Trump endorsements both in the governor's race and the Senate. She lost by a razor-thin margin to Katie Hobbs in the 2022 gubernatorial election and is getting curb-stomped by Gallego after two years of claiming widespread voter fraud. Yet they still vote Trump.