All I know for sure is that there's a better chance of it happening if we get a new Banjo Kazooie. And Blast Corps.

My first impulse was that sure, of course it will, it's sold like 28m in three years so what's another 12 million?

But it's hard to overstate just how badly Xbox Series sales are cratering right now. As of the latest VGC numbers, it's down to well under half of PS5 sales in AMERICA. It's strongest region, where they once trounced Playstation. As for Europe, it's basically dead, plus it's pretty much irrelevant in Japan and Asia.

I still think it might just manage to crawl there, but the fact this is even a serious question that's polling closely goes to show just how catastrophic things have become for Xbox.

2024

Call of Duty

Avowed

Indiana Jones

Unannounced Titles?

2025-2026

Forza Horizon 6

Outer Worlds 2

State of Decay 3

Fable

Clockwork Revolution

Project Mara

Perfect Dark

Contraband

Gears 6

South of Midnight

The Elder Scrolls Oblivion Remaster

More CODs

Project Kestrel

More Unannounced Titles?

Titles do nothing for Xbox. Even less if they are multiplat like Call of Duty or the current third party push. Starfield was supposed to be the game of the generation for them, a system seller, and hardware fell 7% that quarter anyway.

I also think it will do a little better than 40M but won't do Xbox One numbers (58M).

It seems crazy to think it wouldn’t do 40m but it really is possible that it won’t. Sales can only fall so far before they totally collapse and the product isn’t worth supporting. Xbox is currently doing ~300-400k a month? What if it’s doing 200k a month next year? That seems like modern Dreamcast territory to me.

Reaching 40 million is very likely. Probably will end up closer to 50 million when it's all said and done. Everyone thought the the Xbone was at 50 million before getting the update it was at 58 million.

If you can't wait to play those games, and don't already own an Xbox you are going to want to buy an Xbox Series.  All of these game are going to eventually end up on a Playstation system for those with patience.  It may not be on the PS5 but they are coming at some point.

Only care about Gears 6. Rest are meh

The lack of transparency from MS has greatly reduced the accuracy of tracking.  And this discrepancy can easily work in both directions. Sales could crater and it would difficult to report accurate figures until long after.

I think it will make 40 million but not by much.