Internally I think they are worried, it's not like they had 10 big IP, Final Fantasy is really the only one they have that has global reach in big way (well used to anyway). It's more the damage being done to the brand really, once a brand becomes less relevant in this business, it's very, very difficult to get it back. 

Their stock price has been down since FF16 released and didn't sell maybe up to some people's expectations, so having a low forecast for Q4 would make sense ... if you have a sky high Q4 guidance and didn't deliver that would be a monumental disaster that would shake their stock price to its core. They had to be more cautious after FF16. 

How they are going to prevent FF17 and FF7 Remake Part III from selling even worse has to be a pretty big discussion behind the scenes I would think.

Well, they can be happy to devalue their IPs for short term profits but in the end they still devalue their IPs. But that's obviously nothing investors care about as long as the profit right now is enough to dry your tears with money. 

I mean yes, but it's sort of like pissing off your wife to the point where you might be headed towards a divorce but in the short interim you the upside of being able to grab some beers with the boys, lol. 

If I was an investor though I'd care a lot, you can see actually why stock investors who are really smart know and dig in deep to find out all this stuff, if I was just a random investor who didn't know much about Square-Enix, I would have no idea all these factors are at play in terms of their long term outlook as a company. 

I would not invest in this company at all, lol. Not with a 50 foot pole. 

It'll definitely be doing better than Forespoken did, since FF is an evergreen brand, and Forespoken was new, it's marketing didn't exactly set the world on fire, was mostly memed on, and by it's time of release, it both ran poorly and had poorly written dialogue and just got shat on and faded into obscurity. 

Is their 3m projection for PC sales first month?.

Forspoken flopping doesn't really get talked about too much either, but I think that cut Square-Enix deep. They were betting on that being the next big brand to diversify their company away from the exact problem they're in now (decline of their main brand, Final Fantasy). That game doesn't look like it was cheap to make either even if it wasn't great. 

I do find it weird though, how now of all times, only now are they releasing FF XIV onto Xbox, and only now are they ultra specifically using Western style marketing to try to nab that audience (No offence to anyone that liked the FF XIV Xbox trailer, but that came off as immensely cringe and Western designed, that it felt slightly insulting for how basic it come off as, while acting like it was some new game). 

Usually SE is just doing their thing, making spin off FF's and a mainline, mostly pandering to Sony's side first and foremost, then PC, maybe Nintendo, but largely ignoring Xbox, right up until now, when they mentioned they'll be bringing XIV over to the Xbox side. I don't think they can live on short term exclusivity deals forever, much like how a far smaller company like Remedy has been doing for most of their life.

Long-term sales and reach these days should be any company's main focus, I mean MS gets it, that's why they're starting to just give up the goose and port over their games to multiple platforms and stores over time, because having X/Y game on one system in today's market simply isn't good enough for the long-term, and actually makes it harder to port later and ask for a high price up front (Like how I won't ever pay SE's asking price for any of the late games they port over, because I gain no benefit whatsoever for paying a high price on a year old game, with a mediocre port job, that actually feels like a negative to me than a positive of a good port and a good price). 

FF 17 really does need to hit multiple platforms day 1 going forward, instead of Sony first, PC a year later and calling it a day, because that is not going to carry them through like they think it will. It is time to adapt with the times and what others are doing, rather than sticking with the same strat for decades on end, expecting bigger results (definition of insanity).

It's mostly because it was a fresh product that no one really had much interest in, so the hype cycle itself was artificially forced by SE, not organically grown like we've seen with the likes of Helldivers 2 and palworld.

AAA marketing relies on flashy trailers to do the talking, and FS's was laughably forgettable to a high degree, that even I can't remember a damn thing about it, it was honestly that bad. It also doesn't help that it's writing was garbage, along with line delivery, and you have a classic case for one of the most forgettable games in history.

Also the pre-order bonuses?, those were the most poorly thought out bonuses I have ever seen for any AAA or any AA game ever, like for real, who the hell wanted fake nails on their character, that you always look at the back model of, and will hardly ever see the nails on? (the PC in-game keyboard pre-order felt insultingly stupid as well. Some of us actually do use a gamepad to play games as well SE?).

I think it's coming out now because they have a new president just recently put into the job now. His first order of business was probably "fuck, we have to get some of these games on other platforms guys, we can't keep operating like this". FFXIV he could do, FF16/7 Remakes were probably tied up by exclusivity contracts up the rear end before he became president so there's probably not much he can do with that. 

I think even Phil Spencer alluded to that, that they were happy to have Square-Enix helping them again and they weren't going to push them to have to do something that they knew was tied up by pre-existing contracts. 

I do buy that logic, because to me it makes sense. A new president also can involve a new set of strats to employ, but also a new mindset to adopt, and that mindset now seems to involve them trying to spread out across the platforms more often, much like how Sony and MS have been doing in regards to reaching PC more often now than they were 10yrs ago. 

SE just needs to lay off the exclusivity crack for 5 seconds to realise that 1 years isn't really worth it, nor 6 months, because you still have to pay for more marketing for those other platforms (that marketing for FF XIV Xbox wasn't free, but SE will never tell us how much that campaign cost to make and put out), as well as trying to actually incentivise the platform they've ignored for a time to actually buy their game for their asking price (which is a hard sell to ask for when you're coming in a year later and still asking for £60-70, when your competition is busy releasing brand new games, and the AA/indie market have cheaper alternatives).

The remakes were likely as you said, last remnants of a previous binding contract, so we'll see what happens going forward after Rebirth Pt 3 and when 17 eventually comes about. I do think SE would better benefit by extending itself to as many platforms as possible, because even if one of the platforms sells slightly less, the others can make up for it, instead of them betting on just Sony, and PC a year later, then complaining their forecast didn't line up to expectations.

The reason why I'd push for multiplat day 1 releases, instead of 1 plat per year basis, is because I focus on the long-term goals, not the short term, because short term could dry up in months, if not a year and then you're up shit creek. One of my E-business professors taught me that long-term sustainability is more important than short term contracts, because the short term can easily leave you with zero options or simply dry out in shorter time, leaving you more venerable to negative impacts that could last years (which is also why we're seeing buyouts of companies that made poor short term decisions, that left them negatively impacted and thus worth little value and little to output with to sustain their independence). 

I think it's also just a changing market. Square-Enix would be right ... 25 years ago maybe. 

Back then 2nd/3rd party exclusives that were impressive were treated like "wow! this game is amazing! I have to buy a N64/PS1/PS2/Dreamcast/whatever now!"

Saw that many times literally in person, I think no less than 3 of my buddies owned a Playstation 1 but bought an N64 after playing GoldenEye 007 at my place. I know a few people who bought a Dreamcast after seeing Soul Calibur, some people who had an N64 but bought a PS1 for FF7, etc. etc. etc.

But it seems like today that attitude has changed from

"Wow! I will buy a 2nd console for sure! This game is awesome!"

to

"Fuck you, I'm not buying your game period and I'm now not even interested in your IP, I'll just play something else."

lol. Felt that kind of energy around Starfield as well. If you're not going to offer your product on the platform the player is at, they're not going to give you the time of day any more.