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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Reality, Console Industry has become Stagnated.

"Shareholder satisfaction" as the standard capitalist dogma is a relatively new phenomenon. It only became the norm back in the 80s. The idea that a company, market, etc., can grow forever is nonsense, because nothing can grow forever in a finite world. There are always limits to growth.

For example, there are only so many households in the developed world that are willing and financially able to buy a video game console. Every console exhibits the same growth-peak-decline behavior to their sales (a couple of them even skipped the "growth" part, peaking at the dawn of their lives). Sales may grow for a while, but eventually sales will reach a peak and start to decline as the number of people that want a particular system but don't have one yet shrinks. Expand that to the whole market across multiple generations and you can see the full implications of this phenomenon. Once you've gotten to a point where everybody in a given market that wants a console has one and are still repeat buyers in subsequent generations, the only way for the console market to grow is to expand to other markets. But so far consoles haven't gained any significant traction outside the main three markets.

In the 8-bit & 16-bit eras, there were actually only two markets, with North American and Japan accounting for about 85% of the worldwide sales. Widespread adoption of consoles in Europe didn't happen until the latter half of the 90s because A) they were able to because they were an affluent region, and B) the collapse of the home computer market combined with PCs still being an incredibly expensive alternative at the time made consoles (esp. the PlayStation) the most appealing way of playing video games. But those conditions don't really seem to exist elsewhere, with low per capita uptake for consoles. All other markets outside the US+Canada, Europe, and Japan amount to somewhere between 10-20% of the global console market, something that hasn't really changed at all in the past 25 years.

Even if the rest of the world started to adopt consoles at similar rates to the main three markets, you'd still eventually reach a saturation point. There's only so many households on the planet. That would leave growth-obsessed corporations to once again push for new growth opportunities like subscriptions and microtransactions, but even those run into the same problems. Once everyone in the world that wants Game Pass or whatever has it, once everybody has their desire for live service titles sated, then what? Buy out the competition? Okay, so what happens when you have a de facto monopoly on a given market and still eventually reach the inevitable end of growth? Seems like every publicly-traded company that can't grow anymore finds that the best way to pad those profits and increase shareholder value right before the bitter end is to fire as many people as possible, butcher the very economic beast you've been feeding and sell it off to hedge fund managers. Or just sell it to someone else.

If the goal of capitalism is perpetual growth at any cost, then it's a system doomed to failure. Anything predicated on unlimited growth is effectively a Ponzi scheme. But even a dirty pinko socialist like me understands that capitalism doesn't necessarily have to involve unlimited growth. It's merely the private ownership of the means of production, operated on a for-profit basis. Plenty of unincorporated local mom-and-pop businesses have thrived for decades without having to expand beyond one or several locations and consume everything around them. You probably frequent them or at least know of them. They continually made enough profit to stay in business for a very long time.

If the video game industry can't figure out how to make a game profitable even if it's selling over 10 million copies, then that sounds like a "they" problem, not an "us" problem. But corporations always want to make it an us problem. They always seek to privatize gains and socialize losses, so they just do things like axe a bunch of employees. Or they do other questionable things like make deliberately manipulative monetization schemes to nickel-and-dime their customers. Here's an idea. How about they stop making every single-player game a massive 60-hour open-world sprawl filled with hours of advanced mo-cap cutscenes? We could deal with fewer ambitious games. Maybe that would help keep their budgets in check. "Linear" needs to stop being a dirty word. Maybe "short" games should become more acceptable. Some of my favorite games since this past generation have included Metroid Dread, the RE2 remake, and the Ori games, titles that are nowhere near as ambitious in scale as your typical open-world game, and they all did very well for themselves. Not every major title needs to be the next GTA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value
https://hbr.org/2012/08/hows-that-shareholdery-valuey
https://hbr.org/2010/04/the-myth-of-shareholder-capitalism
https://prospect.org/economy/shareholder-capitalism-came-town/
https://stevedutch.blogspot.com/2014/02/growth-is-ponzi-scheme.html



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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Even with stagnation, the console business model is the best way to make money, and can be monetized more today than past generations.

There's a reason Nintendo is a lot more profitable now, compared to the Wii/DS era, and that's with 100M less hardware sales. Despite the struggles with margins, the PS5 is making a lot more profit than the PS4 launch aligned, with some of its most profitable years ahead of it. There's a lot of growth to be had on PC, and Sony is starting to expand in that space, but I feel like they wouldn't do day one launches until they had their own storefront.

I feel like its more likely they will try to have PlayStation Plus be more accessible on PC/TV/Cloud, like they originally planned with PS Now, an approach similar to Microsoft, but as a more complimentary part of their platform rather than a primary driver.



RolStoppable said:
Azzanation said:

This is where you fail to understand. You are not looking at this as a whole. The Console industry has always been this way, it started when companies were choosing to be different all the time. Did you game during the Nintendo and Sega era? If so, then you would have seen how different companies were back then. Always trying new things to break the market open. The issue we have today is, the market has reached its peak. Unless these manufacturers go full experimental mode with their next line up of consoles, I can't see that happening. It's too risky and many have fallen straight out of the industry for trying to innovate. These companies are playing it safe now, unfortunately playing it safe only keeps the same customers, it doesn't create new customers.

I also don't ever expect Nintendo to put their games on other platforms, not unless they are on the verge of closure, and even then, they probably would rather just die than give up their IPs. In saying that, what I mean is that Nintendo will find ways to please shareholders if they start to fall behind targets. Nintendo have been smart with their approach over the years. They develop affordable hardware and have focused on a market that has been lacking AAA gaming and that's the portable hybrid market. That will soon be flooded with options as the years progress. Its only going to get harder for Nintendo as more competition arrives.

As for Sony following Microsoft's way, it's pretty simple. Sony are not doing enough for their shareholders, and they know they can't compete with Nintendo in the portable market, they have tried many times. Sony are not set up for that style. They have designed their structure to make high budget AAA experiences, it will all need to be shuffled around if they start focusing on Nintendo's way of gaming. 

Xbox might not be doing as good as the other two in raw sales figures; however they are set up for the future, they can adapt and evolve a lot quicker than Sony and Nintendo if the digital, PC, Streaming future started to explode tomorrow.

Yeah... no. Big budget AAA experiences and more reasonable budgets are not mutually exclusive things. If hardware sales are stagnant and software sales only increase marginally, then you simply have to look at ways to keep your costs under control instead of having development costs make big jumps each generation.

Microsoft isn't set up for the future. Digital is nothing special and available on all major gaming platforms, so I don't know why you even mention it. PC is always there and steady because there's no such thing as generations in PC gaming, so a sharp increase in popularity is just as unlikely as a sudden implosion. Streaming is what Microsoft had high hopes for, but it's not taking off; input delay and lack of game ownership are big reasons why and these are inherent flaws that can't and won't be fixed.

Kristof81 said:

But they did ...

Nintendo lays off 320 workers in Europe

They didn't in Japan, where the law is very strict, and terminating an employee is possible only in extreme cases. 

But they did not.

Don't make the same mistake as this biased Polygon article that conflates developers with non-development staff. People who work in marketing and translating aren't anywhere close to as valuable as developers and we've seen the results of Nintendo's change in translation practices already, because these layoffs date back about a decade. Since then the quality of translations in Nintendo games hasn't changed in a measureable degree despite the switch from having their own translators to contract work with third party companies.

>Streaming is what Microsoft had high hopes for, but it's not taking off; input delay and lack of game ownership

This is wrong, the cloud gaming stuff is growing and has increased 50% yoy according to phill spencer.

https://www.kitguru.net/lifestyle/mobile/mustafa-mahmoud/xbox-cloud-gaming-has-increased-by-50-yoy-claims-phil-spencer/

Even if you do not want to belive him, cloud gaming is increasing in terms of revenue.

https://appdevelopermagazine.com/cloud-gaming-market-research-report/



EricHiggin said:
Soundwave said:

I grew up close to the US/Canada border, I remember my dad paid $90 for Super Mario Bros. 3 back in the day, lol. Street Fighter 2 on the Super NES was marked up by some retailers to that as well. $80 CAD/pop for N64 games for 3rd party games was pretty standard too. 

They do want to hike the price of games, Capcom's president even openly admitted that he feels games should cost more, it's just a delicate balancing act for them, it's coming, but in the mean time they really like that GAAS model. Why settle for $80 when you can sucker gamers into getting $100+. 

I imagine GTA6 is going to have a heavy GAAS component. 

That's why I think it's weird. The industry is calling for higher prices, yet SNY isn't doing it. They typically lead when it comes to moves like this. Maybe just because their image isn't as peachy as it was for PS4 so they're more careful about making these moves perhaps.

I agree, GTA VI online is going to 'bankrupt' many casuals. I have to assume SNY and MS are battling for some type of partnership for that very game. The profits are going to be astronomical.

Soundwave said:

Those decisions were probably made a while ago, recently now Sony themselves came out and said they must invest more into GAAS titles, so that basically tells you where their head is at today. 

Their new president is talking all about how they must get higher margins and wants more multiplatform games. 

I can't see why they couldn't go from let's give it away free to let's charge $20 or $30 or whatever, as they got closer to launch and realized more income would totally be beneficial and not just from a pure greed perspective considering the layoffs.

Gta 6 will be a dissapointment, if ff7 rebith was one. I don't the ms or sony will be jumpojg with joy. They probably won't thinl the profits are good enough.



holylol said:

Even if you do not want to belive him, cloud gaming is increasing in terms of revenue.

https://appdevelopermagazine.com/cloud-gaming-market-research-report/

From that 2024 article:

21 GB per month = 1 - 5 hours (depending on the streaming quality), that's 2 - 10 minutes per day.

Nevertheless they claim that 60% of these 30 million users are "professional gamers".

According to the following chart, ~3 billion of the $5 billion is "file streaming"... aren't these classic downloads to run the downloaded games locally on compatible hardware?

Last edited by Conina - on 05 August 2024

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Sony and MS have been pretty meh so far this gen in terms of releases. Usually third parties pick up the slack but they have been underwhelming too. It’s come down to AA/indies.

Nintendo should have released the SwitchU like two years ago.



Conina said:
holylol said:

Even if you do not want to belive him, cloud gaming is increasing in terms of revenue.

https://appdevelopermagazine.com/cloud-gaming-market-research-report/

From that 2024 article:

21 GB per month = 1 - 5 hours (depending on the streaming quality), that's 2 - 10 minutes per day.

Nevertheless they claim that 60% of these 30 million users are "professional gamers".

According to the following chart, ~3 billion of the $5 billion is "file streaming"... aren't these classic downloads to run the downloaded games locally on compatible hardware?

https://www.statista.com/outlook/amo/media/games/cloud-gaming/worldwide#:~:text=Revenue%20in%20the%20Cloud%20Gaming,US%2425.30bn%20by%202029.

Ooff wrong link, but it is still growing.