Regional Hardware

Regional Software

Calendar Year 2023 Hardware

Japan - 4,290,000
America's - 6,190,000
Europe - 4,430,000
Other - 1,890,000
Global - 16,810,000

Calendar Year 2023 Software

Japan - 40,110,000
America's - 87,410,000
Europe - 59,140,000
Other - 19,160,000
Global - 205,800,000

Agreed! Wish more people put an * by PS2 sales because of those factors.

Nintendo has always been about the profits. So what's more profitable?

1) Delaying Switch 2 launch (causing it's tech to be more outdated when it does launch, and making it closer to PS6/XS2 launches hurting its backend, potentially) and trying to squeeze every last sale out of Switch 1's life knowing full well software sales drop significantly at this stage in a console's life so you won't make that much out of Switch 1 owners at this stage.

2) Launch the Switch 2 as soon as the software launches are ready, maximizing the window, between the twins releasing their next generation, for sales potential, and let the Switch 1 organically die (make whatever you project it could sell and nothing more).

This is not a situation where we deal with mutual exclusivity. It's possible to get Switch above 160m and simultaneously get Switch's successor off to a good start. We've seen how this can work at the beginning of this generation when the 3DS sold 11m units after Switch had already launched; the 3DS did this with mostly minor releases (the exception being Pokémon Ultra Sun/Moon) and a late revision (2DS XL), so it didn't require Nintendo to dedicate a lot of resources to the late life of the 3DS. Concurrently, Switch's first year wasn't hampered by Nintendo's continued support of the 3DS because almost all of the big Nintendo games in 2017 went to Switch, except that aforementioned Pokèmon game.

Now the thing is that Switch is approaching its successor on a notably higher sales curve, approximately twice as high as the 3DS's. This makes it more than feasible to at least match the 3DS's tailend sales of 11m.

Right above this post of yours the Switch software total for 2023 was posted: 205.8 million units. You've been beating this drum for three years straight, you just don't get how it works. That aside, delaying Switch's successor is not a prerequisite for Switch to reach 160m+ anyway; you are inserting a flawed assumption here.

Certainly possible to have a steeper decline if Nintendo does nothing more than release their B-titles this year, because the holiday quarter would contribute negatively in a big way in that case. But last year we've gone through the same things repeatedly and then Nintendo ended up doing something, hence why this fiscal year turned out better than most people believed when the original forecast of 15m was announced.

In the long run, having the most sold units of any gaming system is probably very good for the brand. It could be a good strategic move to offer some short term earnings in order to push the Switch to the best selling ever heights.

But if Nintendo takes that path I think they want to be damn sure that the Switch make it, and just beating the PS2 with a few thousand units won't be enough.

ShadowLink93 said: Regional Hardware Regional Software

I love your charts so much!

Ok so as of Dec 31, 2023 the Switch has 139.36M hardware units shipped. And Nintendo has a goal to ship 15.5M hardware units. That means they only plan to ship a minimum of 1.76M units in Q4. Let’s assume that they reach their goal and don’t plan to ship more in Q4 once they ship 1.76M.

How do you think they will distribute the 1.76M?

Personally this is what I think (using FY 23/24):

Japan: 4.24 (+0.5M)

Americas: 5.45 (+0.6M)

Europe: 3.96M (+0.4M)

Other: 1.85M (+0.26M)

@RolStoppable

*beats drum more*

How you like those apples!?

I think I remember that, years ago, some reports kept showing MKWii selling some good numbers way after Wii production was shut down. But I'm saying this by memory, just so that I don't forget to reply. If I stop to research it, I sometimes get entrenched in other stuff I find interesting along the way and forget to come back. :)

@bold: That was pretty unbelievable to me. Seriously, I cannot make much sense out of that. Do people did not know there was a new game in the series? Do they want to buy BotW now and then wait to buy TotK later to get the full experience (also knowing the price won't come down for f. sake, so why bother)? Is it the difference in price? Wtf, really?

Nintendo Low balled their forecast, i think 2.2M is what they will ship for Q4. Japan will be very low because they overshipped in Q3 by 400K.

Japan: 300K

Americas: 950K

Europe: 650K

Other:  300K