Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: Switch at 139.36m shipped

[RolStoppable]

Dulfite said:

RolStoppable said:

Hardware in line with my expectations, SMB Wonder significantly below my expectations despite being the fastest-selling Super Mario game anyway, Super Mario RPG significantly better than what I had expected.

I am not sure when I'll get around to updating my spreadsheet (still have to do the update for Q2 first, so I am way behind). But that aside, Switch remains on track to become the best-selling console of all time. A 30% decline in calendar year 2024 would still result in a figure above 10m, so despite inevitably approaching the end of its era as Nintendo's main console, there's enough gas left in the tank.

The only way I see Switch 1 passing PS2 is if Nintendo makes decisions that will Sabatage Switch 2's capabilities to sell. Personally, I hope they don't chase records and instead target the healthiest situation for Switch 2.

This is not a situation where we deal with mutual exclusivity. It's possible to get Switch above 160m and simultaneously get Switch's successor off to a good start. We've seen how this can work at the beginning of this generation when the 3DS sold 11m units after Switch had already launched; the 3DS did this with mostly minor releases (the exception being Pokémon Ultra Sun/Moon) and a late revision (2DS XL), so it didn't require Nintendo to dedicate a lot of resources to the late life of the 3DS. Concurrently, Switch's first year wasn't hampered by Nintendo's continued support of the 3DS because almost all of the big Nintendo games in 2017 went to Switch, except that aforementioned Pokèmon game.

Now the thing is that Switch is approaching its successor on a notably higher sales curve, approximately twice as high as the 3DS's. This makes it more than feasible to at least match the 3DS's tailend sales of 11m.

Dulfite said:

Agreed! Wish more people put an * by PS2 sales because of those factors.

Nintendo has always been about the profits. So what's more profitable?

1) Delaying Switch 2 launch (causing it's tech to be more outdated when it does launch, and making it closer to PS6/XS2 launches hurting its backend, potentially) and trying to squeeze every last sale out of Switch 1's life knowing full well software sales drop significantly at this stage in a console's life so you won't make that much out of Switch 1 owners at this stage.

2) Launch the Switch 2 as soon as the software launches are ready, maximizing the window, between the twins releasing their next generation, for sales potential, and let the Switch 1 organically die (make whatever you project it could sell and nothing more).

Right above this post of yours the Switch software total for 2023 was posted: 205.8 million units. You've been beating this drum for three years straight, you just don't get how it works. That aside, delaying Switch's successor is not a prerequisite for Switch to reach 160m+ anyway; you are inserting a flawed assumption here.

curl-6 said:

RolStoppable said:

Hardware in line with my expectations, SMB Wonder significantly below my expectations despite being the fastest-selling Super Mario game anyway, Super Mario RPG significantly better than what I had expected.

I am not sure when I'll get around to updating my spreadsheet (still have to do the update for Q2 first, so I am way behind). But that aside, Switch remains on track to become the best-selling console of all time. A 30% decline in calendar year 2024 would still result in a figure above 10m, so despite inevitably approaching the end of its era as Nintendo's main console, there's enough gas left in the tank.

Wouldn't the decline be a lot steeper than 30% given Switch is likely to be replaced this year? Once a successor is announced and then released sales should fall off dramatically, and companies these days tend to phase out old hardware quite quickly.

Certainly possible to have a steeper decline if Nintendo does nothing more than release their B-titles this year, because the holiday quarter would contribute negatively in a big way in that case. But last year we've gone through the same things repeatedly and then Nintendo ended up doing something, hence why this fiscal year turned out better than most people believed when the original forecast of 15m was announced.