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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: Switch at 139.36m shipped

Phenomajp13 on 19 February 2024

Partner showcase on the 21st is focused on games releasing in the first half 2024. So maybe Nintendo is relying on 3rd parties to carry Switch first half. Second half Nintendo could carry the platform with Luigi Mansion 2 HD in July, Metroid Prime 4 in September, Mario TYD in October, and Pokemon in November. Not many resources wasted on Switch final year and yes Metroid 4 should be on Switch because it needs a big userbase not 4K graphics.



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curl-6 on 19 February 2024
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah if Switch 2 misses this year Nintendo have dropped the ball.

If it’s delayed to late 2025 than I agree but if it’s early 2025 than it’s probably not that big of a deal. A ~3.5 month delay between late November 2024 & early March 2025 won’t make a huge difference. Basically, I would prefer holiday 2024 but if it releases this fiscal year than I’m not too worried.

As for Nintendo’s lineup this year

Jan-Another Code: Recollection

Feb-Mario vs Donkey Kong

March-Princess Peach Showtime

Summer-Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD

2024-Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door

Obviously that’s not a great lineup but a few points, 1. Nintendo often has a barren lineup this time of year then a Feb/March Direct shows off more titles releasing in the Spring/Summer and 2. I have a feeling Nintendo has a few titles waiting in the wings in case of an unexpected drought. I could absolutely see ports of Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Metroid Prime 2&3 being mixed in there along with new installments of smaller IP like Rhythm Heaven.

Then there is the possibility of having a true price cut (Lite-$169.99, OLED-$299.99, original-discontinued)

Next fiscal year shipments could be something like Switch, 10-11 million and Switch 2, 3-4 million and that would be a pretty good result.

Ordinarily I'd agree, as almost every year of the Switch has had major games we didn't know about at the start of the year, (Wonder last year, Xenoblade 3 in 2022, Metroid Dread in 2021, etc) but at this stage it really seems to be the end of the road for Switch, as their entire release schedule is remasters with the sole exception of Princess Peach Showtime which is itself looks like a B-grade spinoff.

The fact that the upcoming Direct is a Partner Showcase further suggests Nintendo proper have nothing significant left for it.

It's that familiar twilight zone Nintendo consoles tend to have, like Wii U's 2016 or Wii's 2012, where the successor isn't ready yet but all the first party teams have moved on to it and left the current system behind.



zorg1000 on 20 February 2024
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

If it’s delayed to late 2025 than I agree but if it’s early 2025 than it’s probably not that big of a deal. A ~3.5 month delay between late November 2024 & early March 2025 won’t make a huge difference. Basically, I would prefer holiday 2024 but if it releases this fiscal year than I’m not too worried.

As for Nintendo’s lineup this year

Jan-Another Code: Recollection

Feb-Mario vs Donkey Kong

March-Princess Peach Showtime

Summer-Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD

2024-Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door

Obviously that’s not a great lineup but a few points, 1. Nintendo often has a barren lineup this time of year then a Feb/March Direct shows off more titles releasing in the Spring/Summer and 2. I have a feeling Nintendo has a few titles waiting in the wings in case of an unexpected drought. I could absolutely see ports of Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Metroid Prime 2&3 being mixed in there along with new installments of smaller IP like Rhythm Heaven.

Then there is the possibility of having a true price cut (Lite-$169.99, OLED-$299.99, original-discontinued)

Next fiscal year shipments could be something like Switch, 10-11 million and Switch 2, 3-4 million and that would be a pretty good result.

Ordinarily I'd agree, as almost every year of the Switch has had major games we didn't know about at the start of the year, (Wonder last year, Xenoblade 3 in 2022, Metroid Dread in 2021, etc) but at this stage it really seems to be the end of the road for Switch, as their entire release schedule is remasters with the sole exception of Princess Peach Showtime which is itself looks like a B-grade spinoff.

The fact that the upcoming Direct is a Partner Showcase further suggests Nintendo proper have nothing significant left for it.

It's that familiar twilight zone Nintendo consoles tend to have, like Wii U's 2016 or Wii's 2012, where the successor isn't ready yet but all the first party teams have moved on to it and left the current system behind.

That’s why I mentioned the last few major Wii U ports, a couple more GameCube remasters and small IP.

The only big hitter I could imagine releasing is a new Donkey Kong, seems like the perfect opportunity with him being a main character in the Mario Movie, a recent line of Lego sets and the DK expansion at Nintendo World. Would be a decent sized title for Switch’s last holiday.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 20 February 2024
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Ordinarily I'd agree, as almost every year of the Switch has had major games we didn't know about at the start of the year, (Wonder last year, Xenoblade 3 in 2022, Metroid Dread in 2021, etc) but at this stage it really seems to be the end of the road for Switch, as their entire release schedule is remasters with the sole exception of Princess Peach Showtime which is itself looks like a B-grade spinoff.

The fact that the upcoming Direct is a Partner Showcase further suggests Nintendo proper have nothing significant left for it.

It's that familiar twilight zone Nintendo consoles tend to have, like Wii U's 2016 or Wii's 2012, where the successor isn't ready yet but all the first party teams have moved on to it and left the current system behind.

That’s why I mentioned the last few major Wii U ports, a couple more GameCube remasters and small IP.

The only big hitter I could imagine releasing is a new Donkey Kong, seems like the perfect opportunity with him being a main character in the Mario Movie, a recent line of Lego sets and the DK expansion at Nintendo World. Would be a decent sized title for Switch’s last holiday.

Old ports/remasters and small IP won't be enough to prevent stagnation if that's all they have though. It's better to end a system on a strong note than let it rot on the vine like Wii/Wii U.



Shtinamin_ on 20 February 2024
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

That’s why I mentioned the last few major Wii U ports, a couple more GameCube remasters and small IP.

The only big hitter I could imagine releasing is a new Donkey Kong, seems like the perfect opportunity with him being a main character in the Mario Movie, a recent line of Lego sets and the DK expansion at Nintendo World. Would be a decent sized title for Switch’s last holiday.

Old ports/remasters and small IP won't be enough to prevent stagnation if that's all they have though. It's better to end a system on a strong note than let it rot on the vine like Wii/Wii U.

There has been a Zippo rumor of a Mario game coming this year. Though be warned Zippo is hit/miss for rumors.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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curl-6 on 20 February 2024
Shtinamin_ said:
curl-6 said:

Old ports/remasters and small IP won't be enough to prevent stagnation if that's all they have though. It's better to end a system on a strong note than let it rot on the vine like Wii/Wii U.

There has been a Zippo rumor of a Mario game coming this year. Though be warned Zippo is hit/miss for rumors.

Zippo's been wrong too many times to have any credibility tbh.

That said I wouldn't rule out a B-tier Mario spinoff of some kind; the Wii for instance got Mario Party 9 in its final year. But I don't think that would be enough make up for the lack of any major new releases.



Shtinamin_ on 20 February 2024
curl-6 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

There has been a Zippo rumor of a Mario game coming this year. Though be warned Zippo is hit/miss for rumors.

Zippo's been wrong too many times to have any credibility tbh.

That said I wouldn't rule out a B-tier Mario spinoff of some kind; the Wii for instance got Mario Party 9 in its final year. But I don't think that would be enough make up for the lack of any major new releases.

Yeah I know he can be, just wanted to get that out cause that would be cool. Honestly any kind of Mario game would be welcomed.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

SAguy on 20 February 2024
Shtinamin_ said:
curl-6 said:

Zippo's been wrong too many times to have any credibility tbh.

That said I wouldn't rule out a B-tier Mario spinoff of some kind; the Wii for instance got Mario Party 9 in its final year. But I don't think that would be enough make up for the lack of any major new releases.

Yeah I know he can be, just wanted to get that out cause that would be cool. Honestly any kind of Mario game would be welcomed.

Mario teaches typing remaster.



The world belongs to you-Pan America

RolStoppable on 20 February 2024
curl-6 said:

Old ports/remasters and small IP won't be enough to prevent stagnation if that's all they have though. It's better to end a system on a strong note than let it rot on the vine like Wii/Wii U.

Is this analysis or just a doom fantasy you have there? Because what Switch is getting in 2024 is worlds apart from the situation of the Wii and the Wii U in 2012 and 2016, respectively. Not just on the first party side, but also concerning third party content as well.

The other catch is that success or failure of one system doesn't mean all that much for the next system, hence why any talk of momentum is always misguided. It won't matter if Switch sees no big first party release anymore, what matters for its successor if it has a strong and robust first year lineup (first twelve months) or not, regardless of the system launching in late 2024, early 2025 or late 2025.

Lastly, you are confusing yourself in your "analysis" anyway. You try to attribute the Wii U failure to a loss of momentum in the final stage of the Wii, but at the same time don't recognize that the Wii U's final stage was even worse and yet still couldn't stop Switch's success in any manner.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

haxxiy on 20 February 2024
curl-6 said:
haxxiy said:

An early launch for the next Xbox would be more like the Mega Drive or the Dreamcast... neither of which really worked in the end.

Launching ahead of the competition actually worked really well for the Megadrive; by leapfrogging the NES and getting a head start on the SNES they managed to gain a lot of market share, and they were actually outselling the Super Nintendo for much of the 4th generation, until Nintendo got a second wind in its later life with games like Donkey Kong Country.

A lot of the earlier Mega Drive sales were due to Sonic fever, though. It was eclipsed by SMB3 before that. It probably would have sold just as well had it come a year later (assuming the games weren't delayed too).