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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 125 84.46%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.54%
 
Total:148

Any idea how spider 2 will do on steam? Not sure if that could be a significant boost.



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Chrkeller said:

Any idea how spider 2 will do on steam? Not sure if that could be a significant boost.

It's only switch vs ps5. So steam won't count 

 



zeldaring said:
Chrkeller said:

Any idea how spider 2 will do on steam? Not sure if that could be a significant boost.

It's only switch vs ps5. So steam won't count 

 

Fair enough.  I'm still curious because of steam is a good revenue source I could see better Sony support to PC moving forward.

PC will offer a good jump in fidelity.  I have not tried but I'm guessing I can get 4k and 120 fps on most ps5 ports.  



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SMB Wonder had sold through 4.3m in October and added 6.4m in two more months.
Spider-Man 2 sold through 5.0m in October and added 5.0m in three more months.

The sales curve heavily favors Mario here, which is no surprise, because that's the story that the ongoing software charts from various countries already told us.

While SMB Wonder underperformed my expectations significantly for its launch quarter, Spider-Man 2 matched them. Expectations were roughly 20m for Mario, roughly 10m for Spidey. I don't see any threat yet to Wonder's longevity, because it will be a long time until we get the next 2D Mario game, be it a new one or a remaster. As such, the game will continue to sell on a backwards compatible Switch successor; not as well as a Switch 2 branded game would, but well nonetheless.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

The fact that SMB Wonder simply continues to chart high on the Eshop and most charts worldwide, ahead of Spiderman 2 in most cases, clearly states that it's sales trajectory is simply much better for the moment. It'll prolly remain like this for the year too I think and can even debated if the eventual release of a Switch successor will affect it's sales.

Spiderman 2 got quite the start to surpass Mario which many here overestimated because of the nebulous Switch effect in spite of ignoring it's usual sales trajectory. However it seemed more than sufficient enough to surpass the former and from current results. It'll remain like that for good while I believe.

The only moment we'll see Spidey catch up in any meaningful way is the moment you see that software on heavy discounts and the obvious holiday bundles.



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Mar1217 said:

The fact that SMB Wonder simply continues to chart high on the Eshop and most charts worldwide, ahead of Spiderman 2 in most cases, clearly states that it's sales trajectory is simply much better for the moment. It'll prolly remain like this for the year too I think and can even debated if the eventual release of a Switch successor will affect it's sales.

Spiderman 2 got quite the start to surpass Mario which many here overestimated because of the nebulous Switch effect in spite of ignoring it's usual sales trajectory. However it seemed more than sufficient enough to surpass the former and from current results. It'll remain like that for good while I believe.

The only moment we'll see Spidey catch up in any meaningful way is the moment you see that software on heavy discounts and the obvious holiday bundles.

The thing is ps5 kinda tanked in sales. Considering xbox is all but dead and Sony forecast we expected much better sales for ps5, instead switch with no deals and no bundles in it's 7th year  was only behind 1.2 million ps5 sales for the holiday quarter that's what really made the difference. 



zeldaring said:
Mar1217 said:

The fact that SMB Wonder simply continues to chart high on the Eshop and most charts worldwide, ahead of Spiderman 2 in most cases, clearly states that it's sales trajectory is simply much better for the moment. It'll prolly remain like this for the year too I think and can even debated if the eventual release of a Switch successor will affect it's sales.

Spiderman 2 got quite the start to surpass Mario which many here overestimated because of the nebulous Switch effect in spite of ignoring it's usual sales trajectory. However it seemed more than sufficient enough to surpass the former and from current results. It'll remain like that for good while I believe.

The only moment we'll see Spidey catch up in any meaningful way is the moment you see that software on heavy discounts and the obvious holiday bundles.

The thing is ps5 kinda tanked in sales. Considering xbox is all but dead and Sony forecast we expected much better sales for ps5, instead switch with no deals and no bundles in it's 7th year  was only behind 1.2 million ps5 sales for the holiday quarter that's what really made the difference. 

I mean this isn't the thread for this debate but PS5 sales are aligning to be the best they ever were since the PS4. It just won't surpass the milestone in any meaningful way. This is not a factual tanking like the Xbox brand is currently experiencing. It's just course correcting to their usual level of sales.



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Mar1217 said:
zeldaring said:

The thing is ps5 kinda tanked in sales. Considering xbox is all but dead and Sony forecast we expected much better sales for ps5, instead switch with no deals and no bundles in it's 7th year  was only behind 1.2 million ps5 sales for the holiday quarter that's what really made the difference. 

I mean this isn't the thread for this debate but PS5 sales are aligning to be the best they ever were since the PS4. It just won't surpass the milestone in any meaningful way. This is not a factual tanking like the Xbox brand is currently experiencing. It's just course correcting to their usual level of sales.

Ps5 sales are great by they have massively missed on the forecast, and with xbox tanking you expect ps5 to do much better. The home console only model is seeing huge decline this gen.



zeldaring said:
Mar1217 said:

I mean this isn't the thread for this debate but PS5 sales are aligning to be the best they ever were since the PS4. It just won't surpass the milestone in any meaningful way. This is not a factual tanking like the Xbox brand is currently experiencing. It's just course correcting to their usual level of sales.

Ps5 sales are great by they have massively missed on the forecast, and with xbox tanking you expect ps5 to do much better. The home console only model is seeing huge decline this gen.

Sony had been missing their forecast massively during the first two quarters of the fiscal year already, so you shouldn't have expected them to be able to change that. 8.6m in the holiday quarter are in line with what we had seen before.

Also, the generation is far from over, so speaking of a huge decline is premature. The PS5 is tracking ~2.5m behind the PS4 launch-aligned, Xbox Series vs. Xbox One should be a similar value up to this point. The PS5 is set to close the gap a little bit in the current quarter, expected to ship at least 4.6m compared to the PS4's 2.9m at the time. Additionally, it's doubtful that these declines have anything to do with a home console-only model. For one, the PS5 is keeping pace with the PS4, and two, the Xbox's decline can be attributed to Microsoft's ill-advised strategy of releasing their games day and date on Xbox and PC, making the Xbox console redundant due to no exclusives, neither outright or timed.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 14 February 2024

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
zeldaring said:

Ps5 sales are great by they have massively missed on the forecast, and with xbox tanking you expect ps5 to do much better. The home console only model is seeing huge decline this gen.

Sony had been missing their forecast massively during the first two quarters of the fiscal year already, so you shouldn't have expected them to be able to change that. 8.6m in the holiday quarter are in line with what we had seen before.

Also, the generation is far from over, so speaking of a huge decline is premature. The PS5 is tracking ~2.5m behind the PS4 launch-aligned, Xbox Series vs. Xbox One should be a similar value up to this point. The PS5 is set to close the gap a little bit in the current quarter, expected to ship at least 4.6m compared to the PS4's 2.9m at the time. Additionally, it's doubtful that these declines have anything to do with a home console-only model. For one, the PS5 is keeping pace with the PS4, and two, the Xbox's decline can be attributed to Microsoft's ill-advised strategy of releasing their games day and date on Xbox and PC, making the Xbox console redundant due to no exclusives, neither outright or timed.

Yea maybe i'm being too negative. I haven't been following sales that much and assumed that xbox series was doing much worse then xbox one which ended up selling 55-60 million i think? I heard that this gen xbox might end up at 35 million and i expect ps4 to end up at 105 million that's kinda of a huge decline is my prediction.