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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 126 84.56%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.44%
 
Total:149
curl-6 said:

Looks like it was the tortoise and the hare; Spiderman had a bigger opening, but Mario had better legs.

I kinda expected more from Spiderman with how aggressively it was bundled.

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.



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UnderwaterFunktown said:
curl-6 said:

Looks like it was the tortoise and the hare; Spiderman had a bigger opening, but Mario had better legs.

I kinda expected more from Spiderman with how aggressively it was bundled.

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.

 I would agree with you but switch just keeps on selling its just insane that ps5 only out sold switch by 1.5 million this quarter with spiderman 2 bundled while switch had no discounts in its 7th year.



UnderwaterFunktown said:
curl-6 said:

Looks like it was the tortoise and the hare; Spiderman had a bigger opening, but Mario had better legs.

I kinda expected more from Spiderman with how aggressively it was bundled.

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

As far as Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor releases, I'm not so certain of that. If the successor is backwards compatible and there's no Switch 2 version of Wonder, the original game's legs could extend well beyond the Switch's replacement.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 14 February 2024

curl-6 said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

About Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor comes out, I would think that would depend on whether the successor is backwards compatible, and whether there's a Switch 2 version of Wonder.

If they make a mario wonder deluxe version or a even a new 3d Mario at launch it would differently kill interest in wonder for switch only.



zeldaring said:
curl-6 said:

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

About Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor comes out, I would think that would depend on whether the successor is backwards compatible, and whether there's a Switch 2 version of Wonder.

If they make a mario wonder deluxe version or a even a new 3d Mario at launch it would differently kill interest in wonder for switch only.

Nah, a new 3D Mario won't affect Wonder. This can be clearly seen on Switch where having many Mario games did not result in fatigue.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 14 February 2024

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curl-6 said:
zeldaring said:

If they make a mario wonder deluxe version or a even a new 3d Mario at launch it would differently kill interest in wonder for switch only.

No, a new 3D Mario won't affect Wonder. This can be clearly seen on Switch where multiple having many Mario games did not result in fatigue.

You don't think a 3d Mario that looks mind blowing won't take all the interest off wonder? All those mario games vs wonder are all very old and and they aren't a big deal like a new 3d Mario or 2d mario. 



zeldaring said:
curl-6 said:

No, a new 3D Mario won't affect Wonder. This can be clearly seen on Switch where multiple having many Mario games did not result in fatigue.

You don't think a 3d Mario that looks mind blowing won't take all the interest off wonder? All those mario games vs wonder are all very old and and they aren't a big deal like a new 3d Mario or 2d mario. 

Well, let's consider what we saw on Switch; we had four mainline Mario games pass 10 million in sales, more if you count spinoffs like Mario Party and Mario Kart. Heck, Mario RPG Remake came out like a month after Wonder but sold more in a month and a half than the original SNES version sold lifetime.

The release of Wonder also did not cut the legs of the older Mario games; they all sold well over the same holiday.



zeldaring said:
curl-6 said:

No, a new 3D Mario won't affect Wonder. This can be clearly seen on Switch where multiple having many Mario games did not result in fatigue.

You don't think a 3d Mario that looks mind blowing won't take all the interest off wonder? All those mario games vs wonder are all very old and and they aren't a big deal like a new 3d Mario or 2d mario. 

nsmb wii sold millions after the release of the wii u despite sales of the wii collapsing long before that. There isn't really any reason to think sales of the game will completely collapse once the next console releases, especially if it has backwards compatibility.



zeldaring said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.

 I would agree with you but switch just keeps on selling its just insane that ps5 only out sold switch by 1.5 million this quarter with spiderman 2 bundled while switch had no discounts in its 7th year.

True but I think we can still safely say the PS5 has a lot more sales left in the tank than the Switch. It mostly comes down to what happens after the successor.

curl-6 said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

As far as Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor releases, I'm not so certain of that. If the successor is backwards compatible and there's no Switch 2 version of Wonder, the original game's legs could extend well beyond the Switch's replacement.

It's possible, but I feel like a deluxe version is pretty likely though to get a 2D mario out on the new system. Unless they just let you buy Switch games on the new systems eshop, but that would make it a bit confusing as to whether that counts as Switch sales or not.



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Mario Wonder must be around 13 million in February against SM 10 million

It sold more, however I was expecting it sell significantly more not just "more". I thought Spider-Man would never had a shot to outsell Mario, but now I can see it Spider winning

It comes down to two things, if Nintendo release a Switch 2 version of the game it will cut down the legs of Wonder and it will sell ""only"" around 18-20 million lifetime. If there is no Switch 2 version (at least at launch) and Nintendo will wait a few months/years to release a "deluxe version" if Wonder then I can see this game having much bigger longevity and getting closer to 25 million 


As for Spider, it's a flagship Sony game. It will sell for years, be bundled to oblivion and likely to receive deep discounts eventually. Unless something strange happens (like Sony never dropping the price) Spider will cross 20 million before the end of the generation