Well Spider-man 2 was ahead of SMW in physical sales chart for the month of October, and is ahead in the most recent week ending Sunday 19th, which encompasses the start of the Black Friday week sales in the UK, and SMW was ahead the 2 weeks in between. It’s very likely physical sales are close and probably SM2 is ahead by a small margin. Amazon UK has SMW outselling Spider-man 2 at a 2:1 ratio.

I think the short version is Spider 2 is doing better than many thought. And Wonder isn't doing as well as some thought.

SM2 is doing as it was supposed to do, even slightly weaker than most Sony fans were predicting here but inside the accepted range. People who think it was going to do any worse are clueless. Sony major first party is extremely strong now, they had several games surpassing 20 million mark last gen and we have no evidence their brand power is on decline 

About Mario Wonder, then I agree it's doing much worse than predicted. People (me included) didn't know the IP selling history track and were expecting huge openings. Turns out it's a game with good (but not stellar) launch and good legs. It should have no problem clearing 20 million mark, but the predictions of it selling 40+ and entering Switch top were always misplaced anyway. This is not a generation defining game. 

Weren't most major Mario games released early in their respective console's life? If so, it's a no brainer to expect Mario Wonder to have a much stronger opening than most if not all Mario games, especially with the "Switch effect" in mind. Wonder came at a time where other major Nintendo games had insane openings. The game definitely had a meh launch in comparison. It should have strong legs, but Switch 2 may hurt them, and a Wonder DX would pretty much cut them.

It's my first time in a while that I overestimate a Nintendo game. When a company keeps beating your expectations, you're bound to one day overestimate them. Not that it matters... a Wonder DX on Switch 2 releasing early in its lifecycle is guaranteed to have great legs, and combined, Wonder and Wonder DX could well pass 40 or 50 million for all I know.

The closest comparison should be NSMBWii, which after a solid but not spectacular launch ended up with virtually no decline and even weekly increases until the year ended. We'll see what Famitsu charts say this week but Wonder seems to be falling behind even accounting for digital.

Wow I nailed it look at wonder at NPD told you guys me. Only person Here who nailed it. My analysis was spot on.

Sadly Super Mario Wonder has already outsold FF16, only physical vs physical+ digital. It is doing pretty good.

I never said it won't do great but my prediction was 20 million to 22 million tops on Switch only and most here found that prediction offensive. 

Other thing to take into account, is that Circana doesn't track revenue for games in a Bundle, so Niche-Man 2 Bundles are not counted.

 Wow Nice. if anyone wants an expertise opinion on predictions PM me.