Mario wonder sold 4.2 million in 2 weeks. Spiderman 2 most likely beat that the first weekend considering it sold over 2.5 million day 1 and is the fastest selling 1st party PlayStation game ever. It will be a close one and both will sell over 20 million lifetime. I think Spiderman 2 will sell more in the end because eventually it will get discounted very often

4.3 mil after two weeks is honestly most comparable to the Pokémon Let's Go games that sold 3 mil in their first week.

I considered predicting this earlier and it might be a little late now, but might as well: Wonder won't outsell New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe or enter the switch top 10 in its first quarter.

2D Mario is a game for casuals, it will sell a lot on christmas. Don't worry the legs will be good, as we can see by weekly charts. It wont have any problem clearing 25 million even on Switch alone

You can't call it after 2 weeks, especially with a game like SMW, which will probably be an evergreen for years. Also, don't forget it is selling to a massively higher userbase. I expected SM2 to be the bigger seller initially but SMW to outsell it eventually with legs. I see nothing to change my opinion.

Considering it's selling faster than NSMB DS and Wii so far this is a fantastic opening with how leggy the game is going to be.

switch is at the end of it's cycle games  games will be very front loaded at this point imo. then you have mario rpg coming that will also give casuals another mario game of choice to buy. Then switch 2 is with a new 3d mario game coming which will shift focus on away from switch and mario wonder. it's obvious to me but we can wait and see. 

That’s an interesting theory, new Mario games take away from existing ones, but is there anything to back this theory up?

We have Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Mario+Rabbids: Kingdom Battle, Super Mario Odyssey, Mario Tennis Aces, Super Mario Party, New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe, Super Mario Maker 2, Paper Mario: The Origami King, Super Mario 3D All-Stars, Super Mario 3D World+Bowser’s Fury, Mario Golf: Super Rush, Mario Party Superstars, Mario Strikers: Battle League & Mario+Rabbids: Sparks of Hope all on Switch, did any of these hurt the performance of other ones?

This site is crazy sometimes

Forum member: Mario Wonder isn’t going to be as big of a deal as people think

Nintendo: Mario Wonder is our fastest-selling Mario game ever!

Forum member: See I told you all! Where’s my apology?

umm my prediction was 20 to 22 million tops everyone was predicting it would do 30-35 million easy in that context, and would do similar to totk launch numbers so yea you are missing the context its the fast selling mario is expected considering the user base and actually a new mario platformer.

Way to ignore the actual questions I asked

Of course there are things to back up the theory. just look at nintendo history they are very careful with franchise fatigue but since they had so many wiiu ports that no one played they now have 4 mario platformers on switch which is something Nintendo has never done before, and then you have mario rpg which of course some parents  and kids are gonna see commercials of and buy that over mario wonder for the holidays but of course the biggest holiday gifts will be ps5 cause its in its prime and switch is on the way out, spider man 2 is gonna sell better during the holidays.