Eventually but consoles dropping physical completely in the next few years is a mistake. It's not the time yet. If the leaked xbox model does not have a usb-c disk drive option and they do go ahead with completely dropping physical for Xbox it would be a mistake. Digital-only models are one thing, having no physical option at all is entirely different.

I think even in 2028 for next-gen there would still be a big enough backlash for completely dropping Physical to make it problematic, but we'll see where the digital ratio's are by that point.

You don't want to be the first console manufacturer dropping physical games or risk repeating a situation to the horrific PR MS got near the launch of the Xbox One.

Physical will die with oldf@gs

~User was banned for this post

Considering we still have CDs and even LPs in music after Napster all these years ago, and books/magazines/news papers after ereaders and phones, I doubt physical media for games is going anywhere anytime soon. It'll most likely become a small section of a much wider market.

Music is completely different though, it doesn't need specific hardware to run. You can buy a CD today and shove it into any knock-off brand CD player and it'll run. You won't be able to just grab a limited edition physical release of the newest Mario Kart, Forza, God of War or Call of Duty in the 2030's and shove it in any old thing. If a manufacturer stops making CD Players, who cares, there's plenty and CD's aren't locked to a manufacturers device, heck you can even just burn your own CD's if you want. It would take a monumentally greater investment, amount of effort and support from publishers to cater to a niche physical games market than a niche physical music market.

Any company can make a CD or Vinyl player that will play all CD's or Vinyl's. Supporting physical games requires specific hardware, active support from the developers and publishers for that specific hardware and regular updates to keep up to date. I don't think the music industry catering to the physical niche is in any way a useful example for gaming due to the hardware requirements for playing a game vs some music.

PC is the most comparable as in that case any company can make a device that will play all PC games. Yet PC is the system where physical is already well and truly dead and has been for many years so...

I don't see a lasting future for physical games once the big players in the industry drop it. If Nintendo/Sony/MS stop supporting physical on their consoles then their is nothing anyone else can do about it beyond creating their own console, and yes PC physical is already non-existant.

According to Polygon 80% of sales for ps5 are digital..... steam is all digital

No, they won't. And even in the highly improbable case that they will, it will only be for a brief period before they return. This is because the more you reduce the amount of physical game releases and/or the size of the physical printrun, the higher the percentage of high-paying customers (the gamers who buy the most games) for physical games will be. At that point it becomes simple economics where game publishers will think thrice about cutting off their most valuable customers. Nevermind that there's a lot of value for console manufacturers to have your console cardboard boxes surrounded by lots of games in stores.

Physical vs. extinction has taken on the life of Michael Pachter's infamous "this will the last generation of consoles" prediction that he kept making each generation. So you can expect that the end of physical games will be routinely predicted to happen in the not-so-distant future.

I think the value of physical games is mostly for parents who are looking for Christmas and birthday gifts for their kids - and that is a fairly important thing, commercially - especially for companies like Nintendo. Eventually that’s going to be replaced with digital codes in plastic cases and perhaps a return of the digital gifting feature they had on Wii (which I would have loved on the Switch).

For most people, digital is vastly superior. No clutter, no risk of breaking, no risk of theft. I mean, the hardware that plays the games could be stolen or broken, but then you can just restore purchases on new hardware.

I agree with @RolStoppable, plus big games will still want to sell their special editions. Soon they'll find out they sell better with disc instead of Starfield's contellation edition.

I'm reluctantly at 50/50 now since PSVR2 hardly has any physical games. Also BG3 doesn't have a physical release and that's just too good to pass up. Starfield is on the fence for me and finding out that the physical (standard) edition only holds 47GB of data on the disc and you still have to download another 55GB makes the physical edition pointless for keeping / collecting. Thus the only way I'll get Starfield is when I find it cheap on the second hand shelf.

Fact is, I have no issue paying $70 for a physical (complete) edition, but getting me to pay $70 for a digital version it must be something truly special like BG3 and FS2020 (which runs off the cloud anyway). Anything else I'll wait for a sale, $30 max. Luckily PSVR2 games are all in that range, while I got RE8 and RE4 remake as physical editions, plus have my store on the lookout for physical versions of PSVR2 games. Digital has little value to me and my spending habits on games have been declining due to the shift to digital. Luckily Nintendo is still launching all their big games on cartridge, TotK, Pikmin 4, Wonder, great year for Switch.

This year I have bought FF16, TotK, Pikmin 4, Star Wars Tales from the Galaxy's edge (PSVR2), Song in the Smoke (PSVR2), Dead Space remake, RE4 remake, RE8 and Life is Strange New Colors, all physical. On the digital side It Takes 2, BG3 and PSVR2 games: TWD S&S 1&2, Moss Book 2, The last Clockwinder, Pistol Whip, Synthriders, The Dark Pictures Switchback, Kayak VR Mirage, Puzzling Places, Before your Eyes, and Demeo. Only BG3 being a full price game. And planing to buy Mario Wonder, Spiderman 2 and The Lords of the Fallen, physical editions day 1.

In quantity it's more 50/50, in money spend I still spend far more on physical, and am far more willing to spend more money on physical editions. Plus I enjoy visiting my local game store. It's still a place of wonder for me, seeing all the systems back to the NES and its games on display. Plus I usually find something good on the 2nd hand shelves.

Really depends on what "death" means here. Major publishers stop releasing physical copies? Then I say yes. But like vinyl records, they will still have a dedicated market I'm sure

Completely, as in no physical options at all? Maybe, but it won't be for a very long time.

But if you're asking if physical games will get to the point where physical music is currently at? Where something like ninety-percent of the population don't want them, and only stream/download games? Then yes... and sooner rather than later. I believe we're at a tipping point right now. I think next gen, consoles won't have disc drives in them. Possibly as add-ons, but they won't come built-in. And at that point, the party finally ends for physical-game lovers such as myself. Gamepass, PSN Plus and Steam will reign supreme. Nintendo will probably stick with carts, but since everyone else will have gone mostly digital, the bulk of their sales will probably be as well. Major retail stores will phase out physical copies completely like CDs (they kind of already have in the US)... and there ya go.

So if you love physical media, this is the last of the MohIcans. Enjoy them while you can. Because after this gen, the chapter in that story ends... for good.