I don't think it's going to be inflation as a big factor to why Switch 2 will be as expensive as Switch OLED or higher. It would be more the fact that Nintendo handhelds have a wonkier price history than their home consoles. And Switch is a hybrid, so it's a handheld as well (and will surely get a handheld-only option).

Launch prices USD unadjusted for inflation
Game Boy: $89.99
Game Boy Color: $69.99
Game Boy Advance: $99.99
DS: $149.99
DSi: $169.99
3DS: $249.99 (slashed to $169.99 before its first holiday season)
New 3DS XL: $199.99
Switch Lite: $199.99

Switch 2 will probably be $349.99-$399.99 and Switch 2 Lite will probably be $249.99-$299.99.

While the comparison with the PS4 Pro was in raw performance, the one of the 7790 was not. Compared to the 3050 in the Techpowerup list, which shares the same GPU architecture, has almost 5 times the performance (484% to be exact) of the Orin NX 16GB. This is mostly due to having 60% less GPU cores and 40% lower clock speeds, but possibly also from having less than half the bandwidth, of which the CPU takes also a chunk.

Black-and-white paper specs doesn't tell the entire story.

Ampere is in a completely different league to Bonaire in terms of efficiency.

I would be questioning the 3050's 5x performance increase over the Orin NX 16GB, especially as they both don't share the same OS/Software stack so the comparisons aren't like-for-like... For example nVidia spends millions every year developing it's driver stack to optimize performance and efficiency in Windows, that same effort isn't put into it's Android stack.

But in a console where you are working closer to the metal, it's also less important.

SteamDeck has no exclusive software, let alone exclusive software of Nintendo's caliber. I never understood this comparison. SteamDeck is just a PC configuration, one of thousands, whereas Switch is its own thing.

Whether or not the market welcomes a Nintendo console over $400 is anyone's guess. People thought $500 may prove too high a pricepoint even for the PS5 early on, because the PS4 launched a $100 cheaper and got a pricedrop quicker (instead, PS5 got a price hike, and Digital Edition remains sparse). They thought Series S was a giga smart move because of the price difference, look how that aged! Every single generation most people make ridiculous predictions and they proceed to learn nothing of value from them.

A Switch 2 above $400 could still be a huge success imo (Nintendo with a unified library is a whole different beast), if maybe not as successful as the $400 alternative. $500 is where I would draw the line. If Nintendo releases two versions, early adopters (first couple of years buyers) will want to go for the more expensive/feature complete version regardless of the price difference. That may or may not change in the middle of the generation.

I'd go for two models: one (stripped down) at $350, and another (feature complete) at $450. But I think Nintendo will launch one version at $400, and I won't be against it because it's the safest and most balanced price/specs/features point. I think they can go higher, but it's a bit risky.

One common problem with two SKUs at launch has been the correct production volume. All too often the inferior SKU was sitting on shelves and not long after in warehouses too. The only two-SKU-strategy that has ever worked is the one where the feature-incomplete one is produced in very low numbers from the start, so just there for the manufacturer to say "new console starting at $X99" and never meant to be one that sells a lot.

One SKU at launch is a lot easier to manage and I don't think there are any features that are really worth it to seriously consider two SKUs. LCD vs. OLED is just a nicer screen, insignificant for a lot of gamers because they'll use the console first and foremost with the TV anyway, or they simply don't care enough. Storage capacity is similar, because separate SD cards will probably be needed either way.

Specs can be expected to be limited by the consideration for battery life and size of the console, that's why I expect $399 as launch price after this past year and a half of rampant inflation. Specs will lag notably behind the PS5 and XSX anyway, so there's no point in pushing the limits. The perceived difference between $399 and $449 is also a lot bigger than between $349 and $399 despite being the same difference. But $349 is out of the question for me due to the high inflation we've had recently.

$449 could work when we consider how much Switch still costs. In price it's not much of a leap from current gen to next gen. But at $449 Nintendo should have a first year first party lineup that at least matches Switch's in the number of system sellers and complementary software, because despite Switch's success they shouldn't anticipate that third parties are on board instantly. That's why $399 is the more sensible approach as it still allows for a more premium SKU to be introduced later on.

Nintendo does have a few more revenue streams today than they had when Switch launched, but dedicated gaming hardware still accounts for the vast majority of their business, so they should better play it safe than sorry.

I voted for $349.99, but could also see it launching at $399.99. I think it is safe to say that it will launch at a higher price than the first Switch, simply due to inflation and the current market prices of other video game hardware. I don't think that they will go over $400 for the primary model though.

On top of that, assuming Switch & Switch 2 coexist for awhile, I don’t think Nintendo wants too many SKUs available at any given time.

Switch

Switch Lite

Switch OLED

Switch 2

Switch 2 Deluxe

That’s overkill and I think sticking with 3 SKUs is the way to go. Entry level, standard & premium.

Switch Lite

Switch OLED

Super Switch

All of this is true. But I expect the Switch 2 to have a very compelling first year (3D Mario and Mario Kart 9 are in the cards), so a strong early software lineup is probably not an issue.

And while launching two SKU's does come with problems, it enables Nintendo to get slightly more ambitious with the core specs, knowing that they have a cheaper model as a safety net. This is what I suspect Sony did with PS5, they made the Digital Edition and then realized they didn't really need to push it because the demand for the standard model was high enough. Nintendo can also get more aggressive with the price difference between the two models, because they can cut further costs by providing a lower grade display and no dock.

Overall, one reasonably powerful launch model at $400 makes more sense than the two SKU route. Especially if they intend to keep producing Switch 1's.

The people saying over $400 is not much more expensive are ignoring Nintendo's entire history and philosophy of being the affordable system. Over $400+ means Nintendo is abandoning the pricing strategy they've always stuck to. It's not going to happen. Honestly $399 is probably not going to happen except for an upgraded version later on (similar to the OLED this gen). And we all know how Nintendo doesn't like price cuts, so they aren't going to make another 3DS mistake and release a $450 or so Switch 2 and then have to cut the price by like $100 within the first year and take losses and get bad press and slow sales. That's an awful combo to shoot themselves in the foot with.

If they have a single SKU at launch it'll almost certainly be $350 or very close to that price. If they do two SKUs, which I could totally see happening, they could do an LCD + less disk space model for like $330 and an OLED + more disk space model for $380 or at absolute most $399. Though if they do launch with something near $399 I would expect a $50 price cut after a couple years so they could launch a premium model at $399 later on. I don't see any model of next gen at any time coming with a price tag that starts with a "4".

I feel like people are throwing out these high price tags just because Switch hybrids are selling at $300 and $350. But you gotta remember Nintendo is making straight BANK on those systems. They could easily cut the price of those and still bring in good profit, they simply don't need to because Switch still sells very well. A generational leap over Switch doesn't mean the system is gonna cost $350-$400 to make. Depending on how high end they go, and depending on if they do one model or go with a base model plus a nicer model, next system is probably gonna cost somewhere from $300 to <$350 to produce, and the $350ish will probably only be for the nicer model if they go with a two SKU plan. A single model they are probably targeting around a low-$300 production cost and a ~$350 price.

Nintendo isn't dumb enough to ignore their market and put out a system that costs in the console range (ie $400+) and they know what happened last time they launched a system with a much too high price (the 3DS). They know their market is affordable systems and amazing games, not expensive systems with the latest high end tech.

Nintendo's audience isn't primarily children anymore.

Let me say that again, their primary audience by actual demographic split is not children.

Now sure Nintendo will always make kids a priority ... but the "dirt cheap hardware!" was always byproduct of Nintendo's demographics being much different in the past.

This is the demographic split for the Switch in the US for example early in its product cycle (through October 2017):

83% is 16 or older (so basically not a child).

This spread is likely actually only going to get *even older* for Nintendo. The person who was say 11 years old and got a Switch in 2017 for example will be 18 years old (an adult) when the Switch 2 launches presumably in 2024. 

So you are going to have another wave of "Nintendo kids" who are graduating up into late teenage-dom and adulthood with the Switch 2, I've said this before but when this happens over and over again generation after generation, the block of "kids" gets outnumbered by adults because you have multi-generations of adults (people who are from the NES generation, SNES generation, N64 generation, GCN/GBA generation, Wii/DS, Wii U/3DS, and now even Switch who have become adults but still enjoy Nintendo products). 

Even for things like the Super Mario Movie, the demographic split for the opening weekend was 84% of the audience was over the age of 12 (so teenagers or adults). 

As such Nintendo can charge $399.99 relatively easily, they probably could get away with $449.99 even really. The bigger factor is going to be having a strong first 8-10 months of software (Mario Kart and new 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4 cross-gen that sort of thing) and having good marketing. The hardware has to be appealling though ... so decent specs + something that doesn't look like a toy is probably a must. It should be a full generational leap beyond the current Switch, the other thing I think they'd be well advised for is to not bring down the screen size. The 3DS going back to a smaller screen after the DSi XL I think kind of hurt the system (though they were boxed in with the 3D screen probably being expensive). The rumors out there are the Switch 2 has an 8 inch display (these are rumors though) ... that would be an increase over the Switch OLED even, so that would be good.