Game Boy again was just an outlier. Nintendo was planning to end the Game Boy by 1995 or so, ARM who was designing the successor system (Ultra Game Boy? Game Boy 2?) simply could not live up to the size/battery/performance targets they set out for.

Mid-90s was a very, very different time for portable chip tech, battery life, screen tech, etc. etc.

If Nintendo had their way I suspect they would have liked to have released the Game Boy successor for holiday 1995 (and that would've canned the Virtual Boy from ever releasing). But with no Game Boy successor ready and Ultra 64/N64 delayed into 1996 ... Yamauchi seemed hellbent on releasing something ... anything for 1995 as both the SNES and Game Boy were long in the tooth... and I that something was the Virtual Boy (and we know how that went). 

Hopefully 2024 (and BC).

I would say both of those are pretty good bets at this point. 

No way is BC not happening unless something has really gone amiss on the hardware side and 2024 is looking more and more locked in. 

Development kits for Nintendo’s next console are now with key partner studios, with launch planned for next year, sources have told VGC.https://t.co/FG0YtEBWye

— Andy Robinson (@Andy_VGC) July 31, 2023

I wonder if an August-September ish launch could be in play with dev kits being out, if we're finding out about these kits in July, but had a leak in June already (Metroid Dread leaker) saying kits were out in Spain then, who knows.

For most 3rd parties their content is going to be initially ports of existing games, and given the Switch 2 will be much more powerful than the current Switch ... like a year+ to port titles like a Street Fighter 6 or Final Fantasy VII Remake (games that have PS4 versions either) is a generous amount of time. Those could probably be ported in like 8-9 months maybe less, remember these are games that run on the PS4 and also mobile Nvidia laptop GPUs, the Switch 2 is likely more advanced the the PS4 just due to a much more modern architecture that will more akin to the PS5 in that respect (Nvidia Ampere family of chips) even if it doesn't have the same raw power of a PS5.

As always it will come down to whether or not Nintendo's own internal software is ready, but if they can manage it I could see something like a September launch. 

Also aside from the strategic standpoint, Tears of the Kingdom was the first, first party game I've played on the Switch where I truly think the systems lack of power is negatively impacting my experience. Literally every instance of Ultra hands causes the framerate to struggle and resolution is constantly dropping below 900p which gets quite blurry for my 55inch OLED

Xenoblade 3 and Bayonetta 3 really seem to suffer as well ... Nintendo's maxxed out what they can do with this chip, I'm sure the dev teams at Nintendo are probably quite happy to be moving on. It's just time. 

Of this year? No way. Of 2024, sure. 

Yes I meant 2024 of course. If studios have had kits since like June, maybe even earlier than that, I mean really there's a lot of content that still runs on PS4 like Street Fighter 6, Resident Evil 8, Final Fantasy VII Remake, Elden Ring, etc. etc. that surely wouldn't take more than 10-11 months to port to an equal/better piece of hardware. A lot of content could be ready even by say September 2024, it just depends on whether Nintendo has the big gun launch title (Mario Kart?) ready to go for then. 

Witcher 3 on Switch which was an extreme port where a lot of the game had the be redone to run on the Switch because it was a PS4/XB1 only title took 12 months, but ports that the Switch 2 can run more easily should be easy enough to do in half that time surely. 

While technology has seen digitally delivery combined with cheaper internal and external storage replacing the need for the Optical disc, the advantages in storage size and manufacturing costs per disc that saw it become the main medium in home consoles still the main man if you want physical content heavy PS5 and Series X games those advantages of cost and size optical discs are still there.