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There won't be any price drop, even with Switch 2 coming

They will charge 400 to 500 for the Switch 2

No idea.

But they should. At least before the successor comes out. It's gonna be real awkward if next gen is selling at say $350 (or even $400 if it ends up being real pricy but I don't see Nintendo launch at $400, I could see an upgrade a few years later costing $400) while the OLED of current gen is still selling at $350 lol.

Basically, they should keep the Switch going at current prices until HW sales really start to drop (not really happening that badly yet) and then they should drop prices significantly to something like $150/$230/$280. That is presumably enough to still be making profit on all models. This should probably take place next Spring or Summer. Then let Switch keep selling at these much lower prices, and only when they really start to drop down again start preparing to announce next gen. This way, when next gen finally comes out, there will at least be some price difference - perhaps $280 compared to $350 - between the Switch 2 and Switch.

Then again they might just never do a price drop and basically just have to discontinue both hybrid models once next gen launches cuz nobody is going to be buying a $300 or $350 Switch when they can get next gen in the same price range.

AFAIK the Switch has never seen an APU die shrink - only a sideway move to TSMC's 16nm finfet - and most of its components are mature tech. So there are not a lot of reasons to believe it's much cheaper to manufacture today than it was six years ago, and that's without taking inflation into account. Probably no price cuts.

Nintendo's response to people asking for a price cut:

Yea people thinking switch is gonna 350$ are funny to me. switch was 300$ when we didn't have crazy inflation like we do now, and with how well the switch is selling releasing  a switch 2 would kill switch sales if it's only 50$ for a massive upgrade. friggin NSMU is still 60$ a game released 10 years ago.

I agree that software sales are more important than hardware sales, but that's why I think they'll reduce the price. Their older evergreen titles, of which they have many now (MK8, Odyssey, BOTW, Smash, etc.), will see sharp spikes in sales with new hardware purchases. It seems like it would make them more money to drop the price and increase hardware sales because of the untapped market who are waiting for a price drop. Though I expect you're right about the re-introduction of the Nintendo select series around the same time as the price drop, which would also help increase sales. I'm willing to do a signature bet with anyone that a price drop is coming this year. Or any kind of bet really, just to make things more interesting.

if switch 2 is BC why would they see a spike in sales? and switch will be at 140-145 million by the time switch 2 comes out everyone that wanted those games already bought them.

Because I think they'll reduce the price of the OG/OLED/Lite before Switch 2 comes out. The people who want those games but are waiting for a price reduction would cause a spike in sales. I doubt the Switch 2 being backwards compatible will cause much of an uptick in sales of those games because, as you said, everyone who gets a Switch 2 can already play them on Switch. A cheaper Switch will bring in new consumers who haven't been able to play those games, and will finally be able to (legally).

I think a price cut at this point will give a small boost. its 7 years now and switch oled is really fueling switch hardware sakes.

I think there will be no official price drops. Nintendo will have the usual Black Friday bundle (with Mario Kart 8) and that's it. But here in Europe at least, retailers compete in prices for all 3 Switch models. OLED model has a range from 299 up to 399, OG model from 279 up to 369, Light model from 199 up to 259.