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Forums - Sales Discussion - May Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

trunkswd said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Fair enough, 470k did sound quite high. Apparently the thread from back then also places it below 451k: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/244822/may-npd-2021-thread/1/

Still a huge month though.

Looks like Switch was just below 400K in May 2021. We are putting Switch around 450K for May 2023. PS5 around 270K and XS around 145K. I gave XS a similar drop YoY that was seen in some of the other reports. PS5 is more than double YoY and had to make sure Switch revenue for May 2023 is a new record for the console. 

Cool, sounds reasonable. And now at least my 450k Switch prediction is looking pretty good



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UnderwaterFunktown said:
trunkswd said:

Looks like Switch was just below 400K in May 2021. We are putting Switch around 450K for May 2023. PS5 around 270K and XS around 145K. I gave XS a similar drop YoY that was seen in some of the other reports. PS5 is more than double YoY and had to make sure Switch revenue for May 2023 is a new record for the console. 

Cool, sounds reasonable. And now at least my 450k Switch prediction is looking pretty good

Pretty much spot on! Great job! 



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I guess I didn't end up too far from the target. Switch had a beast month. June could yield quite the results of the Zelda effect still last for a good while



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We know Switch sold a ton in May in Japan, and now we see a similar story in the US. I think we are going to see some impressive hardware shipments in Nintendo's next quarterly report.

Breath of the Wild is making a comeback in the top 20, and there are a couple of Mario SKUs in there too. Between the Mario movie and TOTK, Nintendo is on fire right now. I mean there is very serious talk about the Switch winding down and about to be replaced, but its actual sales performance doesn't fit that narrative. Switch is still going strong in both hardware and software.



trunkswd said:

May 2023 Circana (NPD) covers the four week period from April 30 to May 27 and will be released on June 27.

Be sure to get your predictions in before June 27. Since NPD leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

  1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
  2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
  3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000

Results:

TLDR

Units: NS > PS5 > XSX|S
Revenue: NS > PS5 > XSX|S

YTD Units: PS5 > NS > XSX|S
YTD Revenue: PS5 > NS > XSX|S

Full VGChartz article (Link to the article):

The Nintendo Switch was the best-selling console in the US in May 2023 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the four week period of April 30 to May 27.

The amount of revenue spent on Switch hardware reached a new record in May for the platform, while it was the second best May in terms of units sold, only behind May 2020. The Switch saw double digit growth in terms of revenue.

The PlayStation 5 was the second best-selling console in terms of units sold and dollar sales. The PS5 saw triple digit growth year-on-year in terms of revenue.

The Xbox Series X|S was the third best-selling console in terms of units sold and dollar sales.

2023 year-to-date the PlayStation 5 is the best-selling console in terms of both units sold and dollar sales, while the Nintendo Switch is in second in both rankings, and the Xbox Series X|S comes in third.

Overall spending on video games in May was up 12 percent year-on-year from $3.67 billion to $4.12 billion. Spending on video game content increased nine percent from $3.31 billion to $3.62 billion, while video game hardware sales jumped 56 percent from $216 million to $338 million.

Overall spending on video games in 2023 year-to-date is up less than one percent from $21.77 billion to $21.83 billion. Spending on video game content decreased two percent from $19.10 billion to $18.73 billion, while video game hardware sales is up 23 percent from $1.76 billion to $2.16 billion.

"May 2023 U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories totaled $4.1 billion, a 12% increase when compared to a year ago," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella. "Spending gains were seen across Content, Hardware, and Accessories."

Piscatella added, "Spending on video game content grew 9% in May when compared to a year ago, reaching $3.6 billion. Console full game and add-on content spending increased 58% when compared to May 2022, offsetting declines across Mobile and PC."

Piscatella on hardware stated the "Switch was the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales during May 2023. Consumer spending on Switch hardware reached an all-time May high for the platform, while unit sales were 2nd highest ever for the platform in a May month, trailing only May 2020.

"PlayStation 5 continues to lead the 2023 hardware market across both units and dollars."

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom was the best-selling game in May 2023 and is already the second best-selling game of 2023, only behind Hogwarts Legacy. This is despite Nintendo not sharing digital sales of its games.

Hogwarts Legacy is up four spots to second place, while Star Wars Jedi: Survivor in its second month fell two spots to third place. Dead Island 2 in its second month on the market fell from second to fourth place.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II remained in fifth place, while MLB: The Show 23 dropped three spots to sixth place.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild saw a bump in sales as it returned to the top 20 in 13th place. 

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for April 2023:

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in 2023 year-to-date:

This is my first time i've seen the  software list without GTA V. I guess people are awaiting the next installment.



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Triple digit growth for PS5 and double digit growth for Switch, but decline for Xbox series in its biggest market, hard to believe that.

Also, very surprising to still see Forspoken in the Top 20, it will get kicked out in June.



kazuyamishima said:

Triple digit growth for PS5 and double digit growth for Switch, but decline for Xbox series in its biggest market, hard to believe that.

Also, very surprising to still see Forspoken in the Top 20, it will get kicked out in June.

Not when your software momentum is downright eating the ground as of this moment. Like maybe it'll pick up slightly because the latest showcase and Diablo 4 release but I just don't see how it'll gain any momentum until Starfield releases



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So we now know the Switch was up YoY in both April AND May in the US as well as Europe. (Only up YoY in May for Japan, but it was WAY up so it more than covered for April.)

Everything is trending towards the Switch's 1st quarter of this FY being up from last year.

So far, it's up by ~614k w/ June pending. And if the Famitsu weekly sales are an indicator (which so far they have been), then it should be up YoY in June as well



Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:

Will Circana give real numbers?

Yeah, if you're willing to spend thousands of dollars and sign an NDA.

This is America we're talking about. All things must exist in service to business executives and shareholders. This ain't Japan, where sales have been reported weekly for free in a video game magazine since the 90s. Don't ask for alternatives, either. I know first-hand where that gets you: just a bunch of nasty comments from people stanning corporations.

Now it makes more sense. It was just that the way I was seeing people talking it seemed like Circana was giving numbers (or at least leaks were occuring again).



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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

"The PS5 saw triple digit growth year-on-year in terms of revenue." Thats like double last year but given the stock issues of 2022 I think this is reasonable.