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Forums - Sales Discussion - April NPD (Circana) 2023 Thread + Predictions

Bandorr said:
SKMBlake said:

 It's not a mental disability, nor console wars

Been 4 years or so since your last moderation.  So lets call this an official warning.

It was a tasteless joke. It's a real condition so to cheapen it for a poor laugh at a console is just not okay.

I would have gone with a "System of a Down".

I got a warning 4 years ago ?

But yeah, it was tasteless, sorry for that. You can remove the posts if possible.



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Bandorr said:
SKMBlake said:

 It's not a mental disability, nor console wars

Been 4 years or so since your last moderation.  So lets call this an official warning.

It was a tasteless joke. It's a real condition so to cheapen it for a poor laugh at a console is just not okay.

I would have gone with a "System of a Down".

It was a dumb joke but I can't agree with the notion of it being morally wrong to make a joke like that if that is what is being implied here. Low effort posts like that still aren't ideal though.



How do we know that PS5 sales have dropped significantly? I can't tell from Matt's thread.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

How do we know that PS5 sales have dropped significantly? I can't tell from Matt's thread.

Mat was asked if the PS5 set a new record for PlayStation for April and he replied "no, and not particularly close." While in March the PS5 set a new PlayStation record. Plus PS5 sales dropped 35% in the UK in April compared to March. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

How do we know that PS5 sales have dropped significantly? I can't tell from Matt's thread.

Mat was asked if the PS5 set a new record for PlayStation for April and he replied "no, and not particularly close." While in March the PS5 set a new PlayStation record. Plus PS5 sales dropped 35% in the UK in April compared to March. 

Last month, according to Matt's tweet, hardware spending was $566M. This month it is $367M so it appears you are correct.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

I noticed these predictions in your signature for 2023:

SW: 27m

PS5: 24m

XBS: 12m

Tour Switch number is nearly twice Nintendo's own goals,  your PS5 predictions is lower than Sonys goal and your Xbox number way too high.

Are these old predictions?  What are your current predictions?



trunkswd said:

Yeah it sounds like PS5 is down a decent amount compared to the crazy sales in March. That isn't a big surprise. PS5 sales were down 35% in the UK compared to March. I'd say it is a mix of less stock and some of the demand now being met. 

I'm glad the PlayStation showcase rumors were right. Outside of FF16, FF7R2, Spider-Man 2, and Wolverine we don't know much about upcoming games for the PS5. I'm guessing we will see the Last of Us multiplayer game. MGS3 remake has been rumored to be announced at this showcase.

I don't see why stock would suddenly hold back PS5 sales in Sony's most prioritized markets. Sony forecasted 25m in shipments for the fiscal year, so when you break it down by quarter, you'd have to expect ~5m for April to June at the very least (for the full year it would be roughly 5m+5m+10m+5m).



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Libara said:

Imagine using a mental disability for console wars.

I need some context.



I was sick all last week and completely missed this.

Anyway, the previous April record for a PlayStation system in the U.S. was the 411k sold by the PS4 in 2020, which beat the previous record of 332k sold by the PS2 in April 2005. Incidentally, that was the PS4's second-best non-holiday month ever (Sept. 2014, Destiny's release month, takes the #1 spot). It was up 177.7% year-over-year, and was also up 191.5% over Feb. 2020 despite February being on average the strongest non-holiday month of the year and April being one of the two weakest months on average (along with May). It will forever be a mystery how it managed to accomplish this, especially considering how the XBO also managed inexplicably massive growth. Curious.

Moving along, assuming that 98% of hardware revenue went to the main three consoles, then the PS5 being #1 in revenue means it had to have grossed no less than $120M. Assuming an ARP of $520, that would yield a minimum sales figure of at least 231k, definitely well short of the April record for a PlayStation system. Of course, that's just the lower limit. The actual number could still be a good bit higher. Figuring out upper & lower limits for the other systems is a lot more difficult, though. Without solid numbers, we have some pretty big margins of error to work with. The revenue split could have been very close, say, 35%/33%/32%, or it could have been a 45/40/15 split, or a 40/35/25 split. At the very least, we do know that since the PS5 was #1 in revenue and the Switch #1 in units, assuming an ARP of $525 and $300, respectively, that does put a cap on the Switch-to-PS5 unit ratio, which would be just short of 1.75-to-1. Of course, since we don't know the exact SKU split, even that has a margin of error attached to it, but it should be a decent approximation.

Hopefully we get some more leaks eventually.



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