I think people are underestimating Zelda. It doesn't have to be as a well known as Mario, it is still very well known by almost anyone born post 1980.

Lets not forget BOTW outsold Super Mario Odyssey by a large margin too ... Zelda has a multi-generational fanbase by now because it has been a thing since the 80s.

I remember even working in retail in the late 90s and a grandmother coming in to buy a Zelda DX on Game Boy Color and saying she knew the brand because she had taught her grand daughter how to read using the game and the instruction manual. Zelda may not make a billion right out of the gate, but I could definitely see 750 million+ and then subsequent sequel Zelda films having 1+ billion potential.

Much like not everyone knew Iron Man and Guardians of the Galaxy at one point were a C-tier Marvel IP.

Perhaps though BOTW and now its sequel is already doing plenty of that. A Zelda film would be a worthwhile endeavor since as long as it doesn't suck it should do at least as much as Sonic 2 and the Uncharted films did with potential to go beyond 500m if it's high quality. Doing a similar amount as the Lord of the Rings and Hobbit films did though would be an extremely tall order. 

Zelda as a movie will destroy 500 million IMO. It would have to be done very poorly to only do 500 million.

I think putting those two in the same category is a bit much. In Nintendo terms, Iron Man before the MCU would be like Star Fox, whereas Guardians would be like a Golden Sun or something. Totally different realms of popularity. And yeah Zelda is for sure a bigger name than either of those were - it probably still is a bigger name than at least one of them.

Build the characters is something that would work, and it would be relatively cheap for the first two movies using unknown actors for the roles of Link and Zelda. Look at Harry Potter as an example, started as children, then the series wrapped up when they were essentially adults. Just need a few strong adult actors to help those kids shine and develop and grow.

Look at last of US as a good example, very popular actor (Pedro, who attracted the non gamers to also watch the series) and a relatively young up and coming actress (Bella) who many would not know, now everyone knows her far more then they did before.

Agree with the Star Fox analogy and also why I think with how TV during COVID has changed how a lot of people watch entertainment, I think streaming on TV is the spot for it, similar to how The Last of Us ended up there.

In terms of Marvel, it is a good example of how they built something from relatively nothing.

Even the complexity of the way they tie in all the MCU movies, makes me wonder, did someone sit down and write a 20-30 year plan for it? or they just got some crazy ass writers who are able o come up with innovative ways as they go along to tie things up.

The thing that blew my mind the most was how Spider-Man no way home tied up the three spider verses into each other so smoothly. Before that I was pissed off that they kept rebooting spider-man instead of sticking with one for a longer period of time. Now the writers in this were either geniuses and achieved it or it was planned well and helped the writers write the story over the last 20 years.

There’s a high chance/a real chance Nintendo is becoming a legitimate film studio or at least an animation house in the very near future imo.

This is very similar to how the NES broke Nintendo into the gaming industry after the crash. The Mario Movie has been attributed to bringing families back to theaters after COVID.

Also, animation studios/brands are not what they used to be. Blue Sky and DreamWorks used to be competitive and were good competition for Disney and Pixar. Those have gone by the wayside. Pixar and Disney dominated and monopolized the animation genre pre-pandemic. Only Illumination was their competitor. There are not enough big studios anymore.

The pandemic happened and destroyed both Disney animation and Pixar as viable brands in the theatre and to general audiences. People were declaring animation is dead in theatres or whatever very recently. Because the monopoly Disney had over animation in recent times, when it’s damaged there’s no other studio to fill that role. Illumination is that but one big studio can’t carry the whole genre. The death of Pixar left a huge hole. There are holes to be filled and imo Nintendo will be that thing to fill the holes just like they did back in 1983. Honestly, it’s not even up to Nintendo to decide. The market needs another player and the audience is clearly here for it with open arms.

There are lines and parallels here with what COVID did to the movie business and the 1983 video game crash.

Also, you guys are seriously underestimating Zelda. That’s another BILLION dollar picture in the making.

Still will need great marketing. What would be great marketing for the Zelda movie?

It would be hard to come up with a marketing strategy before the idea, tone, energy of the movie has even been speculated on. There are many paths to many audiences to get them hyped about a given product, so I think that’s a bit of putting the cart before the horse. 

but the Nintendo Direct did wonders for the Mario movie. Chris Meledandri said he had never seen anything like it, and he is the head of a major studio. 

I wouldn’t underestimate the brand recognition of Zelda, or if its clout. Even non gamers know Zelda. It is arguably the most dignified of all the Nintendo IPs, so often doesn’t carry with it the same social stigma that many of Nintendo’s IPs come with. 

I wouldn’t and couldn’t make any predictions about the box office potential of a Zelda movie personally. Just look at the Batman franchise and see how many times it has failed versus succeeded. The execution of the work is more important than anything else and that starts with a great studio, a great director, great casting, and perfect tone. For every Batman Dark Knight there is a Batman and Robin. 

True, but they can still have marketing without giving away the plot or contrasting the tone, right? Like maybe posters of a sword with the legendary quote "It's dangerous to go alone, take this.", or something fun like have Rupees hidden in public?