I am all for killing the messenger, if the messenger is the one who is causing the biggest problems.

As sundin13 has already pointed out, taking a firmer stance against Israel comes with the risk of losing votes. I'd say it would lose easily more votes than the current course of the Biden administration, because support for Israel is something that both Democrats and Republicans agree on.

(RolStoppable, that first sentence makes no sense to me lol. The one abt killing the messenger.)

In any case, did you not read my response to Sundin13? Cutting aid to Israel and having U.S. utilize its leveraging power in stopping further Israeli aggression would be an extremely popular move amongst (non-Republican) Americans. I already provided a poll backing this claim, see my response to Sundin13. Are you genuinely telling me that Biden reaching a ceasefire agreement prior to the election would actually cause more harm than help for the Dems? Especially when the opposing party is sporting the line of “Finish them.”?

I am refering to you when I talk about the messenger.

I did read your response to sundin, and I also read his response. I agree with him that such polls have little to no value.

Since Netanyahu absolutely wants to have a war, pressuring Israel into a ceasefire agreement would take nothing short of providing no aid to Israel anymore AND threatening them with sanctions. This wouldn't bode well for the American election.

Biden has done absolutely nothing to reign in Netanyahu. Talking about the potential risks of a firmer approach to Israel that only assumes a black or white options (zero support compared to the unlimited support) is disingenuous. The risks of letting Netanyahu does what he wants are real, and have been real for about a year now and things are only getting worse by the hour. Saying "we can't control Israel's policy" is also disingenuous and parrots the white spox clowns which no one wants to associate themselves with, you sound fucking ridiculous.

Soon Kamala will win and if she doesn't change course when those potential risks of doing the right thing are diminished, excuses will run out.

Remember, we're talking about Biden here, the guy who got dragged out of the race kicking and screaming swearing he's the only who could beat Trump, to pretend he's some political genius and his approach to Israel is calculated, responsible or makes sense electorally is indefensible.

“I agree with him that such polls have little to no value.” What’s your evidence that Biden reaching a ceasefire agreement would cause more harm than good? Beyond just gut feeling.

”pressuring Israel into a ceasefire agreement would take nothing short of providing no aid to Israel anymore AND threatening them with sanctions. This wouldn't bode well for the American election.” What’s your evidence this wouldn’t bode well for the American election? Again, beyond just disputing the entirety of polling and relying solely on what your gut tells you?

@the-pi-guy You reading this, right? You have told me in the past “What would it take to convince you? If all evidence we provide isn’t sufficient, I don’t believe anything will be sufficient.” How would you respond to RolStoppable and Sundino13 in this instance? They are literally stating that you cannot trust polling b/c polling error exists lol.

Ryuu's post with the most recent swing state polls is the evidence. Harris leads in Michigan in all polls; within the margin of error, but it's a lead nonetheless. You made the claim that Michigan is lost for the Democrats and you have yet to provide any evidence; a nationwide poll doesn't qualify as evidence.

…so, we’re switching topics? Okay lol. To address this point, my claim that Harris is in a tricky position with Michigan shouldn’t be interpreted as I deny the polls: Yes, Harris is leading in all midwestern states. What you have to keep in mind here is that dismissing the polls altogether is far different than considering potential for MoE. I believe these polls are 95% reliable…not 100%. If 2016/2020 are any indicators, there is legitimate reason to be skeptical of a Harris victory solely according to the polls (especially in a state such as Michigan where the error between poll and actual was around 4pts in favor of Rep both in 2016/2020).

I hope this response will be helpful in you providing a response to my prior msg btw. No point in switching between topics unless concessions are made and agreement (to an extent) is reached.

This is not going to help in Michigan

US resident killed in Israeli strike on Lebanon

A resident of the city of Dearborn in the US state of Michigan has been killed in an Israeli strike on Lebanon, the Reuters news agency reports.

The US State Department said it was “deeply saddened” by the killing of Kamel Ahmad Jawad, whom a friend and a local group in his home town of Dearborn said was killed in an Israeli air strike, describing him as “one of the kindest and most generous humans”.

Jawad was in Lebanon taking care of his elderly mother, according to the Detroit News.

When asked about reports of an American killed in Lebanon, a State Department spokesperson said: “It’s our understanding that it was a legal permanent resident, not an American citizen [who was killed in Lebanon] but we obviously offer our sincerest condolences to the family.”

Distancing themselves by saying he's not an American citizen is pretty tactless.



US Muslim group highlights Americans killed in Israeli attacks

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a Muslim civil rights group, has criticised the US government for failing to address Israel’s killing of Americans in Gaza and now Lebanon.

The condemnation came after American citizen Kamel Jawad was reportedly killed in a recent Israeli air raid on Lebanon.

“Only politics and racism could explain the Biden administration’s disgusting pattern of indifference to Americans of colour killed by the Israeli government – from journalist Shireen Abu Akleh to Aysenur Ezgi Eygi to Kamel Jawad,” CAIR said in a statement.

“Every member of the Biden administration’s foreign policy team should be ashamed of themselves for enabling Israel’s war crimes against American citizens and countless other civilians. We do not expect this feckless and complicit administration to do anything to hold Kemal’s killers accountable, and we are done asking them to treat American Muslims killed overseas like human beings worthy of US protection.”

I am not particularly taking a position, because I don't think there's particularly good data in this instance for either position. 

A.) what percentage of people would be supportive of US pushing these measures for ceasefire. What percentage of people are opposed to that?

B.) But more critically, for what percentage of people, would those decisions affect their election choices? 

A is relatively easy to figure out, I'm not sure there's good information on B. 

A ton of people support a ceasefire, but they would still vote for Kamala on the basis of women's rights, for example. 

You could be 100% right that Michigan is in jeopardy, or you might be completely wrong, because of other factors.