Well, Starfield could move some consoles, and elder scrolls 6 definitely will move some. Also, getting to where the x is readily available should help too.

On the other hand, all of these games can be streamed without purchasing hardware. So, while there are probably a lot of people that pick up PS5 or switch as a secondary console, I don't think they are going to be as many to pick up an Xbox for secondary use. You can just stream the games. Streaming doesn't work well for everybody, but it does seem to work well for a whole lot of people. So, I think we're close to the point where following hardware sales numbers is pointless. One of the major players is directly and intentionally sabotaging their own hardware sales.

2022 9+million bringing lifetime to 20 million.

My predictions:

2023 ~13 million

2024 ~15 million

2025 ~15 million

2026 ~11 million

2027 ~6.5+ million

2028 ~?

Lifetime ~80+ million

Post from the Xbox Series sale through expectations for 2023 year.

I may be lowballing the 2026/2027 years if by chance Elder Scrolls VI happens to release this generation.

Microsoft needs to step up it's advertising campaign and start pumping games out... Then it will start to hit it's stride I think.

Xbox 360 days... It was advertised everywhere. - Motorsports, movies, television, radio, energy drinks, potato chips and more.
...And Halo was the talk of the town.

I mean, I have a series X, but nothing that gets me excited to actually turn it on and use it.

It will peak the year gta6 releases which is 2025 or 2026

Nope. Peak year will either be 2023 thanks to Starfield or more likely whatever year TES6 releases (2026 probably) alongside price cuts and heavy bundling that year.

As the reason this issue is mainly coming up is the recent decline in sales for the Xbox over the last few months I thought it would be a good idea to look at how other systems performed in their 3rd holiday quarter YoY.

XSX and PSP are the only two systems to show decline in their third holiday quarter. Though the PSP's is an odd situation with such a massive drop off that can probably be explained by it's very staggered launch (Japan Dec 2004, USA March 2005, EU Sept 2005) meaning that it's 2nd holiday quarter received a huge boost from being just one month after the system launched in Europe and so it's 3rd Holiday Quarter suffered YoY from that. The launch of the PS3 in it's third holiday quarter may also have damaged it.

Either way this shows a decline in a 3rd holiday is very unusual indeed.

Though it's probably the January reports that are more concerning because I see no reason for the Xbox to suddenly not be down YoY with nothing on the immediate horizon. I believe February, March and April may also see similar reports of the Xbox in decline and Redfall in May might make that the first month of 2023 that actually is up YoY. February is probably the Series best bet before this as Feb 2022 sales for the Series were lackluster.

I think Holiday 2023 for Xbox Series will be a lot bigger than Holiday 2022 was, really it has to be or any hope of the Xbox Series performing significantly better than the Xbox One is basically done.

I still believe 2023 will be bigger for Xbox Series than 2022 overall rather than mirroring the sales curve of the Xbox One which declined in 2016. Though my confidence in that may be shaken depending on the reports and figures that come out in the next few months.

All 3 current systems have already peaked.

I think 2024 will be the peak year for PS5 and the Xbox Series X/S. Because this generation has been hit with supply issues, I wouldn't be surprised if the traditional sales curve, as well as console longevity, have been extended by a couple of years. 

No way Elder Scrolls is coming out in 2026. I'd bank on that being a late generation release (2027 at the earliest, IMO). 

At least no one can say that Xbox doesn't have a variety of games in the pipeline. Covers damn near every genre. So, there's a game for everyone. Even the last 4 games Xbox has released has been Narrative Adventure, Graphic Adventure/RPG, Survival, and Rhythm/Action. Xbox is even getting in on the 4X Strategy genre with Ara: History Untold.

Series consoles definitely have not peaked yet. Either this year or 2024 I'd say is when it'll peak when the larger titles will be dropping.