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Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2022 Thread - #1 MWII, #2 Pokemon S/V, #3 GoW Ragnarok

Mar1217 said:
Kakadu18 said:

The dev team was three times the size of the first games dev team. The budget was way to big.

But the game was also quite better and more expansive than the first so I'm not surprised either about the lofty expectations. Though they prolly wanted the IP the bloom like other 1st party franchises did on the Switch.

What they think that is and what would actually happen are two different things. Like did they expect 10 million and they got a 8 million seller? 

Also their own fault with things like 'you trained your fans to wait for sales' and 'um Ubisoft, you know people don't like you'. 



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

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trunkswd said:

OP updated with VGChartz article on December NPD.

Aqua over at Install Base leaked NPD numbers for PS5 and Xbox Series X/S up to Nov 2022. (Not sure if I am allowed to link to the thread itself of that forum but there's lots of good info there so it's worth a look anyways)

PS5 US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K

XBX US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K

Last edited by Blood_Tears - 5 days ago


NPD Year - Plataform dominance by year.

1994: GEN - 3,27M
1995: SNES - 2,32M
1996: PS1 - 1,99M
1997: PS1 - 5,05M
1998: PS1 - 7,11M
1999: GMB - 7,21M
2000: GMB - 6,84M
2001: PS2 - 6,18M
2002: PS2 - ~8,5M
2003: GBA - ~7,7M
2004: GBA - ~7,1M
2005: PS2 - ~5,5M
2006: NDS - ~5,3M
2007: NDS - ~8,5M
2008: WII - 10,17M
2009: NDS - 11,19M
2010: NDS - 8,56M
2011: 360 - 7,24M
2012: 360 - 5,31M
2013: 3DS - 3,81M
2014: PS4 - 4,68M
2015: PS4 - 5,72M
2016: PS4 - 5,10M
2017: PS4 - 5,45M
2018: NSW - 5,64M
2019: NSW - 6,48M
2020: NSW - 8,98M
2021: NSW - 7,61M
2022: NSW

Using neogaf, resetera and Ludostrie.

Source: InstallBase (Astral_lion02)



Blood_Tears said:
trunkswd said:

OP updated with VGChartz article on December NPD.

Aqua over at Install Base leaked NPD numbers for PS5 and Xbox Series X/S up to Nov 2022. (Not sure if I am allowed to link to the thread itself of that forum but there's lots of good info there so it's worth a look anyways)

PS5 US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K

XBX US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K

Thanks for the information. Excluding November we aren't a crazy amount off. Looks to be about ~54K too low for PS5 from June to October and ~96K too high for Xbox Series. November though definitely the biggest amount off. PS5 about ~148K too low and XS ~294K too high. And yes, as always I will do adjustments. 

I guess there weren't any Switch leaks?

Edit: These adjustments look like it means our estimates will have Xbox Series a little bit below 10M for 2022. 

Last edited by trunkswd - 5 days ago

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
Blood_Tears said:

Thanks for the information. Excluding November we aren't a crazy amount off. Looks to be about ~54K for PS5 from June to October and ~96K for Xbox Series. November though definitely the biggest amount off. PS5 about ~148K too low and XS ~294K too high. 

I guess there weren't any Switch leaks? 

Nothing yet on Switch but they're asking him for it. lol 



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Blood_Tears said:
trunkswd said:

Thanks for the information. Excluding November we aren't a crazy amount off. Looks to be about ~54K for PS5 from June to October and ~96K for Xbox Series. November though definitely the biggest amount off. PS5 about ~148K too low and XS ~294K too high. 

I guess there weren't any Switch leaks? 

Nothing yet on Switch but they're asking him for it. lol 

I'll keep an eye on InstallBase and see if we get any Switch leaks. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Funny that in is this website, numbers prediction are always too high for Xbox but too low for PlayStation... biased much ?



CloudxTifa said:

Funny that in is this website, numbers prediction are always too high for Xbox but too low for PlayStation... biased much ?

That isn't on purpose and not always true. In Holiday 2021 we overtracked PS5 by nearly 1 million. 

We are working on changes for 2023 that will hopefully make our initial estimates a bit more accurate. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

CloudxTifa said:

Funny that in is this website, numbers prediction are always too high for Xbox but too low for PlayStation... biased much ?

Not bias... it's expectations. The community here generally expected this generation to be much closer than the previous one, this extends to the tracking team. Xbox quarterly reports being more vague than before (due to the big price gap between Series S and X) is also making revenues less meaningful/reliable for extrapolation. Xbox sales are extremely difficult to accurately estimate, this is why I never take any estimates very seriously, can't even trust Famitsu's numbers for the matter. But I respect most relevant estimates because they represent a knowledgeable person's hard work, which does apply to VGChartz.

That said, the leak's November figures were a disaster for Xbox. They lend weight to a lot of arguments that I and some others made, but even I didn't think it was going to be this bad. Series S is looking more and more like a misfired product, Series X too might be misfired in the sense that it's very expensive/difficult to produce in true mass quantities. Series S was likely carried by the pandemic and the limited PS5 (and Series X) availability relative to demand.

Let's see what Starfield can do because Xbox is in serious need for a killer app right now. Then again, Xbox's biggest problem may be its redundancy to the millions of players who are switching to PC.



Blood_Tears said:
trunkswd said:

OP updated with VGChartz article on December NPD.

Aqua over at Install Base leaked NPD numbers for PS5 and Xbox Series X/S up to Nov 2022. (Not sure if I am allowed to link to the thread itself of that forum but there's lots of good info there so it's worth a look anyways)

PS5 US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 277K
Jul-22: 301K
Aug-22: 341K
Sep-22: 494K
Oct-22: 456K
Nov-22: 1328K
LTD as of Nov-22: 10592K

XBX US NPD HW:
Jun-22: 260K
Jul-22: 247K
Aug-22: 251K
Sep-22: 288K
Oct-22: 261K
Nov-22: 730K
LTD as of Nov-22: 8736K

In the end, I was right to lower expectations for XBS for November. But I still underestimated PS5, Switch I think I got close.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9418973