It's already up a lot in places like Japan and the UK though. There is zero chance it's flat for the year, let alone notably down.

Most likely, this recession will be worse than 2008. The problems of 2008 weren't solved and with COVID, there is way too much money in the system. This, coupled with the fact a lot of the world is de-dollarizing, means more inflation in the US, higher rates, and less growth. A decline in the US would result in a decline every, and Europe is going to get hard due to high energy prices. There are also more assests that are overvalued than 2008, one of the most notable being cars. That's the asset I'd watch.

There are a lot of structural problems for the PS5 (issues getting consoles to market, a lot of scalpers buying up consoles, third parties not wanting to fully commit, Sony included). A bad recession could be a tipping point and really hurt momentum. The system did very well in Holiday 2022 thanks to GoW and better availability, but when push comes to shove, and with not a lot of compelling titles coming out, consumers may just stick with their PS4. 

Aside, but a recession will hurt Nintendo and Microsoft as well, but in different ways (and Microsoft may be the one better off). 

Went for 18-20m could be lower but there are some people really taking the cake in here.

I can't even begin to fathom how anyone could think PS5 could be down YoY.

Under 14m is insanity.

Tom Henderson has recently said that Sony expects to ship 10M PS5's in Q3 this year.

I'm not sure how that stacks up against other PlayStation systems, or industry records, but it would topple the PS4's best Q3 by a decent margin.

Man it must be really lonely in your world of delusions....

There are ZERO "structural problems" for the PS5 within the next 12 months.

If we take Sony's FY23 plan to manufacture 23.5M units, subtract this fj22 4th quarter of 6M units, and add a pessimistic 4M units for the fj23 4th quarter, we get an estimated lower limit of 21M units shipped for this calendar year. Sony has always been very good with their plans so anyone thinking of less than 20M units shipped this year might think again. Trolls with estimates under 12M should think of finding a new hobby.

VideoGameAccountant is the person who said PS4 will never pass Wii's numbers.

Crediblity = 0%

Yes I heard this too and I heard 30.5 million for FY23.  This would be 68 million total.  If this is true it's a forgone conclusion that PS5 gets to 100 million.  

These numbers are unbelievable.  It Would be wonderful to see the Switch pass the PS2 and the the PS5 to top that.  That would be insane.  What a time we live in lol.

I have noticed 666 respondents to the poll so Sony is run by the Devil.

There should be a competition between the  eighty odd people who went for the bottom two predictions and the 80 odd people who went with the top two predictions, now all we need is a poll to decide the type of competition and it should be silly in keeping with those predictions so post your suggestions.

Not so sure about that. Maybe, but 2008 wasn't anticipated by most and was quite abrupt, where as things have been weakening for some time now and many have been keeping an eye on it for some time. That's not to say there won't be a crash and it won't be bad, but we're far more aware of the situation this time around so we can much better maneuver. How much that softens the blow is hard to say. There was a general narrative that we were going to see another crash around 2020, but with covid, we may have potentially avoided a hard crash, and instead are riding it out slowly over years. Though it's also possible we've been maneuvering around it for years now and it's going to hit at some point no matter what.

If we do get a crash as I said, then sales will slow a bit. Yet people will still want something to do and gaming is cheap and can be repetitive in a good way, and even cheaper for PS5 come this fall hopefully, so I don't see sales hurting too much even with a crash. Unless the crash is somehow terribly devastating across the board, which at that point all products and markets are in massive trouble.

I'd say right now it looks more like a long slow drawn out recession. That's something that will hold back PS5 sales a bit, but won't cause them to falter much for the next couple years.