Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?

[VideoGameAccountant]

ConservagameR said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

Interesting to read everyone's predictions. I think the folks saying 12-13M are about right with the recession in 2023 coming. Funny I've been saying that for a while, so surprised to see other people say it.

If the recession is tied to a crash then I'd be more inclined to agree. If it's just a recession, unless it goes on for a year or two (in which case sales will slow), I don't think sales will be any less than last year.

Some thought during covid we'd see extremely weak sales which wasn't the case. Not that they were record breaking either, but people won't just sit around and do nothing, even if they aren't getting a government check here and there. They'll find something cheaper and do that instead. A console and an online game or two, or a sub, is a relatively cheap way to keep yourself entertained for years if you're just looking to hold out as a casual until things get back on track.

If I had to guess, if we see the rumored PS5 (Slim) this holiday, it'll be no more than $399 (and $50-$100 more for the disc drive add on). Might even be $349 if Sony is seeing a long enough recession coming. PS hardware sales are good but software is a bit lacking. The way to fix that is get the hardware manufacturing cost down as much as possible and subsidize it a bit if need be. Then people will buy more games and it'll be worth it, especially in a recession.

Most likely, this recession will be worse than 2008. The problems of 2008 weren't solved and with COVID, there is way too much money in the system. This, coupled with the fact a lot of the world is de-dollarizing, means more inflation in the US, higher rates, and less growth. A decline in the US would result in a decline every, and Europe is going to get hard due to high energy prices. There are also more assests that are overvalued than 2008, one of the most notable being cars. That's the asset I'd watch.

There are a lot of structural problems for the PS5 (issues getting consoles to market, a lot of scalpers buying up consoles, third parties not wanting to fully commit, Sony included). A bad recession could be a tipping point and really hurt momentum. The system did very well in Holiday 2022 thanks to GoW and better availability, but when push comes to shove, and with not a lot of compelling titles coming out, consumers may just stick with their PS4. 

Aside, but a recession will hurt Nintendo and Microsoft as well, but in different ways (and Microsoft may be the one better off).