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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 Sales Skyrocket to Best Week of 2022 - Worldwide Hardware Estimates for Nov 6-12

yo33331 said:
super_etecoon said:

Haha. That headline sure does bury the lead, though, doesn’t it? Switch takes the week!

Nope. Just wait till adjustments as it happens almost every time .. I guarantee you this week after 2-3 months when you go in to hardware by date switch will be less than the PS5

Yeah that much is kidna obvious, it could well happen by the next GfK monthly report. No offense to VGChartz their work is generally very good and serves as a nice shortcut to those who can't or don't have time to make their own estimates/adjustments, but it's just weird at this point for anyone to take these estimates at face value. Too many incremental updates adjusting PS5 up and Switch down.

For the last quarter, VGC following the quarterly report still had Switch sell-through ahead of PS5 in July, August, and September each after Sony/Nintendo's quarterly reports revealed PS5 to have outshipped the Switch for the dame period. And only changed that following the October NPD report. Basically, even without factoring in the 6.5 million PS5's produced in the quarter (vs 3.3 million shipped), we had a bigger gap between shipped and sold on PS5 than Switch even though the former near-instantly sells out everywhere. I think there is something wrong in our algorithm. Then again, anything is possible and Sony might be stockpiling more for Black Friday.



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Kyuu said:
yo33331 said:

Nope. Just wait till adjustments as it happens almost every time .. I guarantee you this week after 2-3 months when you go in to hardware by date switch will be less than the PS5

Yeah that much is kidna obvious, it could well happen by the next GfK monthly report. No offense to VGChartz their work is generally very good and serves as a nice shortcut to those who can't or don't have time to make their own estimates/adjustments, but it's just weird at this point for anyone to take these estimates at face value. Too many incremental updates adjusting PS5 up and Switch down.

For the last quarter, VGC following the quarterly report still had Switch sell-through ahead of PS5 in July, August, and September each after Sony/Nintendo's quarterly reports revealed PS5 to have outshipped the Switch for the dame period. And only changed that following the October NPD report. Basically, even without factoring in the 6.5 million PS5's produced in the quarter (vs 3.3 million shipped), we had a bigger gap between shipped and sold on PS5 than Switch even though the former near-instantly sells out everywhere. I think there is something wrong in our algorithm. Then again, anything is possible and Sony might be stockpiling more for Black Friday.

A lot of major retailers like Walmart, Gamestop, Best Buy, and Target have confirmed they will have stock of the GOW:R Bundle, so it's very possible numbers will be big for that week.



We have done adjustments in both directions for all platforms. We had overestimated PS5 last holiday season by nearly a million. While recently we underestimated sales. We do the best we can with the data we have available to us. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Uuuffff I really bet that GOW Week will do that PS5 surpass the Nintendo Switch... It seems not... Well, it doesn't appear that PS5 take the 1st place anymore this year. So officially we can say that COD was the only week that PS5 was the 1st...



trunkswd said:

We have done adjustments in both directions for all platforms. We had overestimated PS5 last holiday season by nearly a million. While recently we underestimated sales. We do the best we can with the data we have available to us. 

That was an outlier though. We overestimated PS5 during that period due to outpacing PS4 all year and us underestimating the severe shortages that Sony (and Bloomberg before them) warned us about, having considerably revised down their forecast.

Edit: My memory is hazy but I remember feeling we overtracked PS5 by a good margin quite a while before adjustments. Did we also have PS5 overtracked for Q1 calendar year? I can't remember the flow of information.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 21 November 2022

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I know vgc likes to undertrack the ps5 and over track the switch and always makes adjustments when ita out the headlines. But i still expected sony to do so good that it would not matter.

Still good week. But what happened to that stockpile? Please dont say its for the holliday. Games sell more on their launch than wait later for the holloday. Not only that but a big launch has a snowball effect.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Switch just 2 million units from overtaking PS4.
Last stop before Pokemon week, and the Santa season draws near.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:

Switch just 2 million units from overtaking PS4.
Last stop before Pokemon week, and the Santa season draws near.

2 or 3 weeks and the Switch will be ahead of the PS4. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Kyuu said:
trunkswd said:

We have done adjustments in both directions for all platforms. We had overestimated PS5 last holiday season by nearly a million. While recently we underestimated sales. We do the best we can with the data we have available to us. 

That was an outlier though. We overestimated PS5 during that period due to outpacing PS4 all year and us underestimating the severe shortages that Sony (and Bloomberg before them) warned us about, having considerably revised down their forecast.

Edit: My memory is hazy but I remember feeling we overtracked PS5 by a good margin quite a while before adjustments. Did we also have PS5 overtracked for Q1 calendar year? I can't remember the flow of information.

IIRC it was overtracked last holiday period. Can't recall specifics other than that but I think there have been 2-3 large downward adjustments to PS5, but more smaller upward adjustments.

Ultimately it's never going to be perfect (people seem to forget but there have been a number of times when Media Create & Famitsu disagree with each other in Japan to double digit percentages, and they supposedly each track ~60% of the markets directly)

Also although people seem to have it in their mind that the PS5s all immediately sell once "shipped"... it's never going to be that simple, many "shipped" consoles will be held in retail warehouse or in transit for differing periods of time. And while the PS5 has had stock issues, in order for it to get from 'issues' to being widely available it will have to pass through a period of shipped being higher than sold. (even if it still sells out "immediately" it does seem to be easier to purchase one as a normal consumer now than it was 6 months ago)
Meanwhile the Switch is in it's declining period, so I wouldn't see it as unusual if it has the odd quarter where sales are higher than shipping, though normally don't htink it would be significant till it's last couple of years (the whole chip shortage being the main thing complicating that making supply & demand bounce up & down)

Given how close they are in shipped figures for the quarter it's frankly a statistical tie for sales IMO. Switch will probably take the lead for holiday quarter (even if Sony has been stockpiling I doubt it will be THAT much, though I guess we may get an idea after black Friday week) then next year should be PS5 leading the way each quarter.



I am live on Twitch going over the latest VGChartz estimates for God of War week, monthly sales comparisons, and gaming news.

https://www.twitch.tv/trunkswd



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.