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HigHurtenflurst on 21 November 2022
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Kyuu said:
trunkswd said:

We have done adjustments in both directions for all platforms. We had overestimated PS5 last holiday season by nearly a million. While recently we underestimated sales. We do the best we can with the data we have available to us. 

That was an outlier though. We overestimated PS5 during that period due to outpacing PS4 all year and us underestimating the severe shortages that Sony (and Bloomberg before them) warned us about, having considerably revised down their forecast.

Edit: My memory is hazy but I remember feeling we overtracked PS5 by a good margin quite a while before adjustments. Did we also have PS5 overtracked for Q1 calendar year? I can't remember the flow of information.

IIRC it was overtracked last holiday period. Can't recall specifics other than that but I think there have been 2-3 large downward adjustments to PS5, but more smaller upward adjustments.

Ultimately it's never going to be perfect (people seem to forget but there have been a number of times when Media Create & Famitsu disagree with each other in Japan to double digit percentages, and they supposedly each track ~60% of the markets directly)

Also although people seem to have it in their mind that the PS5s all immediately sell once "shipped"... it's never going to be that simple, many "shipped" consoles will be held in retail warehouse or in transit for differing periods of time. And while the PS5 has had stock issues, in order for it to get from 'issues' to being widely available it will have to pass through a period of shipped being higher than sold. (even if it still sells out "immediately" it does seem to be easier to purchase one as a normal consumer now than it was 6 months ago)
Meanwhile the Switch is in it's declining period, so I wouldn't see it as unusual if it has the odd quarter where sales are higher than shipping, though normally don't htink it would be significant till it's last couple of years (the whole chip shortage being the main thing complicating that making supply & demand bounce up & down)

Given how close they are in shipped figures for the quarter it's frankly a statistical tie for sales IMO. Switch will probably take the lead for holiday quarter (even if Sony has been stockpiling I doubt it will be THAT much, though I guess we may get an idea after black Friday week) then next year should be PS5 leading the way each quarter.