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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2022 NPD Thread + Predictions

So how did that 400% thing translate to units?



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Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.



CosmicSex said:

Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.

Hopefully he does something about this. 



CosmicSex said:

Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.

Blood_Tears said:
CosmicSex said:

Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.

Hopefully he does something about this. 

I'll go through the numbers again when I'm feeling better. Been under the weather today. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

CosmicSex said:

Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.

I got a bit confused by this since the hardware by date tool has pretty different numbers for September 2021 and ended up digging a bit in last years NPD thread where I found this:

Zippy6 said:
trunkswd said:

I just want to mention that our system automatically decides what weeks go into each months and it has the final week of NPD's September in October. So when you add up the 5 weeks for the NPD period we have the following estimates:

  • PS5 - 421K
  • NS - 410K
  • XSX|S - 311K

Oooh so the months on the hardware tool don't always match npd. Thanks for letting me know.

So the 5 week period we should be comparing to should be the weeks September 4th - October 2nd last year, but those weeks have been adjusted since then and combined have these numbers currently (taken from the hardware by date tool):

PS5 - 425k
Switch - 387k
XSX|S - 250k

Compared to that the year-on-year growth for VgChartz current estimates would be:

PS5 - 430K (+1%)
NS - 385K (-1%)
XSX|S - 370K (+48%)

It's possible I'm missing something here but if not then this certainly seems quite off. I am wondering a bit what made the Xbox numbers from last year get adjusted down so much from the original 311k to 250k tho, but trunkswd probably has a better idea of that.



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UnderwaterFunktown said:
CosmicSex said:

Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.

I got a bit confused by this since the hardware by date tool has pretty different numbers for September 2021 and ended up digging a bit in last years NPD thread where I found this:

Zippy6 said:

Oooh so the months on the hardware tool don't always match npd. Thanks for letting me know.

So the 5 week period we should be comparing to should be the weeks September 4th - October 2nd last year, but those weeks have been adjusted since then and combined have these numbers currently (taken from the hardware by date tool):

PS5 - 425k
Switch - 387k
XSX|S - 250k

Compared to that the year-on-year growth for VgChartz current estimates would be:

PS5 - 430K (+1%)
NS - 385K (-1%)
XSX|S - 370K (+48%)

It's possible I'm missing something here but if not then this certainly seems quite off. I am wondering a bit what made the Xbox numbers from last year get adjusted down so much from the original 311k to 250k tho, but trunkswd probably has a better idea of that.

That 5 week period would have been adjusted many months ago when I got some new data. I don't remember when it was. Taking a quick look I do need to adjust September 2022 again. Xbox down a bit and PS5 up a bit. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

I did more tweaks to our September US estimates before I ran the latest estimates.

  1. PS5 462K (+32K compared to before these adjustments)
  2. NS: 385K (No change)
  3. XSX|S: 345K (-25K)


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

I did more tweaks to our September US estimates before I ran the latest estimates.

  1. PS5 462K (+32K compared to before these adjustments)
  2. NS: 385K (No change)
  3. XSX|S: 345K (-25K)

I didn't see a thread yet for the Oct NPD which was just released this morning.

Here's a quick summary from Mat P's twitter

Summary incoming:
- Units order: PS > Xbox > Switch
- Revenue order: PS > Xbox > Switch
- PS and Xbox see double digit growth, Switch declines.
- Total Revenue Flat
- SW up 2% (cod was a November game last year).
- HW down 8%
- Accessories down 10%
- COD MW2, #1 month, #2 YTD, #3 TTM
- Gotham #2, P5R #7, Bayonetta #9, Grounded #15


Rankings
Unit Ranking: PS5 > XBS > NSW
Revenue Ranking: PS5 > XBS > NSW

Year to Date
Unit Ranking: NSW > PS5 > XBS
Revenue Ranking: PS5 > XBS > NSW



Blood_Tears said:
trunkswd said:

I did more tweaks to our September US estimates before I ran the latest estimates.

  1. PS5 462K (+32K compared to before these adjustments)
  2. NS: 385K (No change)
  3. XSX|S: 345K (-25K)

I didn't see a thread yet for the Oct NPD which was just released this morning.

Here's a quick summary from Mat P's twitter

Summary incoming:
- Units order: PS > Xbox > Switch
- Revenue order: PS > Xbox > Switch
- PS and Xbox see double digit growth, Switch declines.
- Total Revenue Flat
- SW up 2% (cod was a November game last year).
- HW down 8%
- Accessories down 10%
- COD MW2, #1 month, #2 YTD, #3 TTM
- Gotham #2, P5R #7, Bayonetta #9, Grounded #15


Rankings
Unit Ranking: PS5 > XBS > NSW
Revenue Ranking: PS5 > XBS > NSW

Year to Date
Unit Ranking: NSW > PS5 > XBS
Revenue Ranking: PS5 > XBS > NSW

I'm just getting on the PC now. I'll write up the article and post the new thread. Thanks for the breakdown. I'm glad May gave us info for YTD and ranking as well. 

Edit: I also totally forgot about making the thread ahead of time.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 14 November 2022

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

We have Xbox ahead of PS5 YTD in the US by about 160k even after all those adjustments.