September 2022 NPD Thread + Predictions

[UnderwaterFunktown]

CosmicSex said:

Here are VGChartz adjusted 2021 September sales
PS5 - 334k
Switch - 330k
XSX - 245k

Here are the adjusted September 22 numbers
PS5 430K (+31%)
NS: 385K (+16%)
XSX|S: 370K (,+51%)

So there are a few problems here:
First Matt said that the PS5 was the main driver of growth on the hardware side. Here VGC has Xbox as the main driver.
Second VGC has Switch up by double digits when Matt made the point that only PS5 and Xbox were up by at least plus 10% not the switch. So here PS5 is under tracked and Switch and Xbox are both over tracked.
Keep in mind that the number of units the PS5 is under by is less than the sum that Switch and Xbox are over by because the PS5 has a higher average selling price.

I got a bit confused by this since the hardware by date tool has pretty different numbers for September 2021 and ended up digging a bit in last years NPD thread where I found this:

Zippy6 said:

trunkswd said:

I just want to mention that our system automatically decides what weeks go into each months and it has the final week of NPD's September in October. So when you add up the 5 weeks for the NPD period we have the following estimates:

• PS5 - 421K
• NS - 410K
• XSX|S - 311K

Oooh so the months on the hardware tool don't always match npd. Thanks for letting me know.

So the 5 week period we should be comparing to should be the weeks September 4th - October 2nd last year, but those weeks have been adjusted since then and combined have these numbers currently (taken from the hardware by date tool):

PS5 - 425k
Switch - 387k
XSX|S - 250k

Compared to that the year-on-year growth for VgChartz current estimates would be:

PS5 - 430K (+1%)
NS - 385K (-1%)
XSX|S - 370K (+48%)

It's possible I'm missing something here but if not then this certainly seems quite off. I am wondering a bit what made the Xbox numbers from last year get adjusted down so much from the original 311k to 250k tho, but trunkswd probably has a better idea of that.