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Forums - Sales - Famitsu Sales: Week 34, 2022 (Aug 15 - Aug 21)

ShadowLink93 on 26 August 2022
tbone51 said:
ShadowLink93 said:

2022 lead over 2019 is 902K, from now on that lead will decline. Is it a big enough lead to stay ahead come the end of the year? I think so. i expect 2019 to only take out around 600k of that lead.

Incorrect, the 902k will turn into over 1000k before nsw lite launch, quote me on this by end of W37

Edit: In case you didn't know, splat3 oled edition releases this week. And splat3 releases the week before lite launch (W37)

How many Switch's do you think will sell during the splatoon 3 launch week? This far into Switch's life I'm not expecting more than a 120K week, if it launched 2 years ago then Splatoon 3 could have pulled in 250K plus for Switch but not now with 25.7 million already out in the wild.



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eddy7eddy on 26 August 2022
Kakadu18 said:
eddy7eddy said:

Xenoblade 2 Sold 149.390 physical copies on it's first month, Xenoblade 3 already surpassed that in 3 Weeks with 158.971 and even has a bigger Digital Ratio, so we should be at over 200.000 by now, Excellent! numbers in my opinion ;)

It's way higher than 200k. I already said that before, it's digital ratio because of vouchers has to be at over 60%. XCDE had a digital ratio of over 50% while being 2k yen cheaper. Astral Chain, which went for the same price had a digital ratio of over 60%, maybe even 65% depending on physical sellthrough. Even XC2 had 40% digital before vouchers. All based off of Nintendo's shipment numbers. On top of that the Special Edition is not counted here, which in XCDE's case had likely a quite large share of the sales if Comg is anything to go by there.

I believe too that XC3 is over 200K, but XC2 sold 19,684 Digital copies on that month, that's a %13.18 not 40%.

Yeah, Special Edition Took a large part of the sales too.



tbone51 on 26 August 2022
Farsala said:
tbone51 said:

Personally  I think Oct/Nov (2022) could have better weeks outside of 2021 OLED launch and certain week spikes but holiday will be maybe 10% lower overall than last year. Safe bet is 4.5mil by now ears end but I'm gonna go with 4.8mil

1m lead by week 37 would be ~3m. So 1.5m-1.8m for the rest would be on par with 2021. I am not sure how the Switch will do this year, but the trend for the holidays has been down lately.

4m was my prediction long ago, but that is looking like the minimum atm.

Yeah unless something happens 4.4mil is the minimum now. 2765k currently with 18 weeks left.

yo33331 said:
Farsala said:

1m lead by week 37 would be ~3m. So 1.5m-1.8m for the rest would be on par with 2021. I am not sure how the Switch will do this year, but the trend for the holidays has been down lately.

4m was my prediction long ago, but that is looking like the minimum atm.

yep, that's why I think switch will finish between 4M and 4.5M this year in japan. Either on par with 2019, or little bit short of it.

Nah 4mil is way too low. 2765k with holiday, and at least 2 if not 3 strong weeks (W35/W37/W47) and not ever hit under 50k in a week I don't see how 4mil or even under 4.2/4.3mil is possible.

This is just a quick write up with minimum requirements tbf

W36/38-46/48: 55k weekly avg so total 605k

W35: 90k > LED Splat3 Edition releases

W37: 90k > Splat3 Release

W47: 90k > Pokemon SV

W49-52: 120k weekly avg (Holiday) so total 480k

Above is very pessimistic with the lowest week of the year above 54k and holiday 120k weekly is laughable and also Splat3/OLED editon/Pokemon SV only at 90k is pessimistic too.

Combine above with 2765k currently and that's a whopping.... 4120k... let that sink in

ShadowLink93 said:
tbone51 said:

Incorrect, the 902k will turn into over 1000k before nsw lite launch, quote me on this by end of W37

Edit: In case you didn't know, splat3 oled edition releases this week. And splat3 releases the week before lite launch (W37)

How many Switch's do you think will sell during the splatoon 3 launch week? This far into Switch's life I'm not expecting more than a 120K week, if it launched 2 years ago then Splatoon 3 could have pulled in 250K plus for Switch but not now with 25.7 million already out in the wild.

Sounds right, in fact the bigger week is this one. The oled special edition released and I know it should be big. I'll go with 125k this coming week and splat3 I'll say 95k

Last edited by tbone51 - on 26 August 2022

Kakadu18 on 26 August 2022
eddy7eddy said:
Kakadu18 said:

It's way higher than 200k. I already said that before, it's digital ratio because of vouchers has to be at over 60%. XCDE had a digital ratio of over 50% while being 2k yen cheaper. Astral Chain, which went for the same price had a digital ratio of over 60%, maybe even 65% depending on physical sellthrough. Even XC2 had 40% digital before vouchers. All based off of Nintendo's shipment numbers. On top of that the Special Edition is not counted here, which in XCDE's case had likely a quite large share of the sales if Comg is anything to go by there.

I believe too that XC3 is over 200K, but XC2 sold 19,684 Digital copies on that month, that's a %13.18 not 40%.

Yeah, Special Edition Took a large part of the sales too.

How do you know that? We never got any actual numbers afaik.

I unfortunately can't find their financial results explanatory material of that fiscal year, but I vaguely remember XC2 having a quite high digital share. Maybe I misremembered.



Kai_Mao on 26 August 2022
The_Liquid_Laser said:

That's another 30/30 week for Switch. How many times is that this year? 6? I've lost count.

This is an incredible fear. Of course, it doesn’t necessarily indicate a heathy industry in Japan, but it’s crazy to see how dominant the switch is even when it doesn’t have the majority of the big Japanese games such as KH3 (not the cloud version), FFVIIR, FFXV (not the pocket version), MHW (which is cancelled out by MHR), SF5 (and soon 6), RE 7 and 8 (and the remakes of 2 and 3), DMC5, and MGS5.

I’m not sure if we’ll ever see anything like this again, even with the Switch successor.



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Ashadelo on 26 August 2022
Kai_Mao said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

That's another 30/30 week for Switch. How many times is that this year? 6? I've lost count.

This is an incredible fear. Of course, it doesn’t necessarily indicate a heathy industry in Japan, but it’s crazy to see how dominant the switch is even when it doesn’t have the majority of the big Japanese games such as KH3 (not the cloud version), FFVIIR, FFXV (not the pocket version), MHW (which is cancelled out by MHR), SF5 (and soon 6), RE 7 and 8 (and the remakes of 2 and 3), DMC5, and MGS5.

I’m not sure if we’ll ever see anything like this again, even with the Switch successor.

With the exception of MH none of those franchises are that popular in Japan. Maybe they were 10+ years ago but they are not now.. Whats popular now?

1. Momotaro Dentetsu

2. Dragon Quest

3. Minecraft

4. Monster Hunter

Those 4 all did two million plus retail, the games you listed above for the most part didn't even hit a million, they are not that popular in Japan.



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eddy7eddy on 26 August 2022
Kakadu18 said:
eddy7eddy said:

I believe too that XC3 is over 200K, but XC2 sold 19,684 Digital copies on that month, that's a %13.18 not 40%.

Yeah, Special Edition Took a large part of the sales too.

How do you know that? We never got any actual numbers afaik.

I unfortunately can't find their financial results explanatory material of that fiscal year, but I vaguely remember XC2 having a quite high digital share. Maybe I misremembered.

Maybe I'm wrong with the math, but I got sometin fo ya: https://nintendoeverything.com/japans-best-selling-games-of-december-2017/



Farsala on 28 August 2022
theDX said:
theDX said:

I guess this went by unnoticed but the PS5's tie ratio peaked in March and has gone back down since then. I will need to verify but there is a chance it hit 1.0 back then (it surely is below 1 right now).

Update on this: it was 0.97

I wonder how that compares with Spain. Anyone have a list of PS5 sellers in Spain like Japan? Should be pretty easy to calculate if so.



eddy7eddy on 28 August 2022
Mar1217 said:
eddy7eddy said:

Maybe I'm wrong with the math, but I got sometin fo ya: https://nintendoeverything.com/japans-best-selling-games-of-december-2017/

Yeah, that's about what I remember calculating during the former years of the Switch lifetime. It's fitst two first years on the market saw staggeringly low digital adoption rate for first party games overall. 

Most titles were hovering around 10-15% in digital ratio at the time, though maybe not as surprising considering it was a more core dedicate fan base at the time. It was mostly 2019 and the pandemic period that altered such ratio.

Makes Sense, I was thinking the same for the first years. The Pandemic + Animal Crossing made the deal.



Shatts on 28 August 2022
Ashadelo said:
Kai_Mao said:

This is an incredible fear. Of course, it doesn’t necessarily indicate a heathy industry in Japan, but it’s crazy to see how dominant the switch is even when it doesn’t have the majority of the big Japanese games such as KH3 (not the cloud version), FFVIIR, FFXV (not the pocket version), MHW (which is cancelled out by MHR), SF5 (and soon 6), RE 7 and 8 (and the remakes of 2 and 3), DMC5, and MGS5.

I’m not sure if we’ll ever see anything like this again, even with the Switch successor.

With the exception of MH none of those franchises are that popular in Japan. Maybe they were 10+ years ago but they are not now.. Whats popular now?

1. Momotaro Dentetsu

2. Dragon Quest

3. Minecraft

4. Monster Hunter

Those 4 all did two million plus retail, the games you listed above for the most part didn't even hit a million, they are not that popular in Japan.

Nah they're still popular excluding maybe DMC and MGS. Ur right it may not be "as" popular compared to 10+ years ago but they're still million seller franchises. Famitsu only records physicals remember