I think you're off on your math.  There are 18 weeks to go this year and it needs 99k more to pass 400k.  That averages out to 5.5k/week.

I still think at this rate XBox can do it, but it needs a little bit more per week than you think.

Fair enough.

It's way higher than 200k. I already said that before, it's digital ratio because of vouchers has to be at over 60%. XCDE had a digital ratio of over 50% while being 2k yen cheaper. Astral Chain, which went for the same price had a digital ratio of over 60%, maybe even 65% depending on physical sellthrough. Even XC2 had 40% digital before vouchers. All based off of Nintendo's shipment numbers. On top of that the Special Edition is not counted here, which in XCDE's case had likely a quite large share of the sales if Comg is anything to go by there.

Incorrect, the 902k will turn into over 1000k before nsw lite launch, quote me on this by end of W37

Edit: In case you didn't know, splat3 oled edition releases this week. And splat3 releases the week before lite launch (W37)

Agreed.

How do you think last quarter will do? W39-W52?

Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-8-15-22-8-21-22-top-30/

1. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports – 18,668 / 696,061
2. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 16,052 / 4,790,937
3. [NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 10,877 / 862,743
4. [NSW] Minecraft – 10,697 / 2,759,736
5. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set – 8,625 / 250,277
6. [NSW] Kirby’s Dream Buffet (download card) – 7,218 / NEW
7. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 7,014 / 4,956,081
8. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 6,748 / 3,253,767
9. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 – 6,714 / 158,971
10. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars – 6,056 / 1,023,061

11. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! – 5,759 / 2,703,961
12. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 5,411 / 7,313,745
13. [NSW] Live A Live – 5,152 / 111,386
14. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2022 – 3,603 / 220,707
15. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 3,263 / 4,112,322
16. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 3,206 / 1,010,514
17. [NSW] Pokemon Legends: Arceus – 3,056 / 2,285,962
18. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 3,023 / 2,068,403
19. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield – 2,682 / 4,365,910
20. [NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles – 2,461 / 115,489
21. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise Best Price – 2,401 / 89,819
22. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat – 2,106 / 281,078
23. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury – 2,059 / 1,070,032
24. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun! – 1,724 / 735,907
25. [NSW] Nobunaga’s Ambition: Rebirth – 1,718 / 37,039
26. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (New Price Version) – 1,647 / 220,986
27. [NSW] Super Mario Party – 1,617 / 2,094,782
28. [NSW] Mario Strikers: Battle League – 1,607 / 78,050
29. [NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl – 1,596 / 2,579,081
30. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 – 1,579 / 1,233,705

NS - 30/30

Personally  I think Oct/Nov (2022) could have better weeks outside of 2021 OLED launch and certain week spikes but holiday will be maybe 10% lower overall than last year. Safe bet is 4.5mil by now ears end but I'm gonna go with 4.8mil

A perfect score for the Switch this week, before we see a plethora of PS4 and PS5 games appear next week.

1m lead by week 37 would be ~3m. So 1.5m-1.8m for the rest would be on par with 2021. I am not sure how the Switch will do this year, but the trend for the holidays has been down lately.

4m was my prediction long ago, but that is looking like the minimum atm.

That's another 30/30 week for Switch. How many times is that this year? 6? I've lost count.