By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 32+33, 2022 (Aug 1 - Aug 14)

HigHurtenflurst on 19 August 2022
The_Liquid_Laser said:
kopstudent89 said:

Switch is 7.5m from getting the all time record. Unlikely yes, but small possibility? Maybe with a Switch pro? BOTW 2 boost? Possible.. and at its price point that is seriously impressive


Maybe the more likely record is to break PS2's home console record (I am taking out Switch L sales as it's handheld only). That record is 23.2m for PS2 vs 20.7m Switch home consoles. It will probably do it in Q2 of next year unless Splatoon and Pokemon give the Switch a major holidays boost

Switch will sell about 2m more this year.  Conservatively, it can easily sell 3.5m in 2023 and 2.5m in 2024.  A drop of 1m YoY is actually a very steep drop.  Anyway, that adds up to 8m more by the end of 2024 and a few million more after that.  Switch should have no problem becoming the best selling system in Japan.

The more interesting goal, to me, is 40m.  Switch has a shot at reaching 40m, but that is a harder road.  It depends on what kind of support Nintendo gives the system, and another hardware SKU would help a lot.  However, they've been saying they plan on Switch being a 10 year system, so there could be a lot of support still coming.

I roughly agree with your figures, that's what i'm expecting for this year & 2023. 2024 is reasonable assuming a successor is announced at the earliest in holiday of 2023 & not released until holiday 2024. Japan is usually very quick to jump to the new successor so as soon as it's released Switch will die quickly.



Around the Network
Slownenberg on 19 August 2022
The_Liquid_Laser said:
kopstudent89 said:

Switch is 7.5m from getting the all time record. Unlikely yes, but small possibility? Maybe with a Switch pro? BOTW 2 boost? Possible.. and at its price point that is seriously impressive


Maybe the more likely record is to break PS2's home console record (I am taking out Switch L sales as it's handheld only). That record is 23.2m for PS2 vs 20.7m Switch home consoles. It will probably do it in Q2 of next year unless Splatoon and Pokemon give the Switch a major holidays boost

Switch will sell about 2m more this year.  Conservatively, it can easily sell 3.5m in 2023 and 2.5m in 2024.  A drop of 1m YoY is actually a very steep drop.  Anyway, that adds up to 8m more by the end of 2024 and a few million more after that.  Switch should have no problem becoming the best selling system in Japan.

The more interesting goal, to me, is 40m.  Switch has a shot at reaching 40m, but that is a harder road.  It depends on what kind of support Nintendo gives the system, and another hardware SKU would help a lot.  However, they've been saying they plan on Switch being a 10 year system, so there could be a lot of support still coming.

Interesting take on 40m. As I said in an earlier comment, I think Holiday 2024 is probably most likely launch for Switch 2, and Switch will only sell 1-2 million more after 2024, leaving it at 34 or 35 million.

But if by some chance they have a bunch more games planned for Switch to release in '24 and '25, and drop Lite to $150, OG to low $230, OLED to $270, and are planning an upgraded model next year ("Pro" type model) for $350 to keep the system going for a while, and don't launch Switch 2 until say Spring '26, then yeah 40m would be doable. But that is highly unlikely. I don't see a new model coming and I think we're getting towards the end of the big games once BotW2 comes out next Spring. I don't see any reason Nintendo would drag the Switch out and let it drop down to like 10 million sales a year when it is their only system. Next year it'll drop under 20 million and so roughly a year after that it makes sense to bring out a new system to take over from Switch's dropping sales.



Chicho on 19 August 2022

I don't think a pro model is coming next year and highly doubt any price cuts are coming.



tbone51 on 19 August 2022
Farsala said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

With what's coming, I think 5M is a clear possibility this year, and next year I expect something between 3M and 3.5M.

With that, the Switch would be just 2M behind the DS anymore, meaning it still has a shot at overtaking it and becoming the bestselling console ever in Japan.

I think 4.5m maximum. Splatoon 3 isn't doing the hottest, this is the 4th or 5th pokemon game for the Switch. Botw 2 got delayed it seems. Next year, 2-3m would be a great showing.

In fact with 4.5m and 3m it would surpass my Lifetime expectations. Exciting stuff.

4.5mil isn’t a maximum I’m doing a comparison, I’ll post it here regarding W32-W52. If anything the sales are guaranteed between 4.2mil-4.8mil



The_Liquid_Laser on 20 August 2022
Slownenberg said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Switch will sell about 2m more this year.  Conservatively, it can easily sell 3.5m in 2023 and 2.5m in 2024.  A drop of 1m YoY is actually a very steep drop.  Anyway, that adds up to 8m more by the end of 2024 and a few million more after that.  Switch should have no problem becoming the best selling system in Japan.

The more interesting goal, to me, is 40m.  Switch has a shot at reaching 40m, but that is a harder road.  It depends on what kind of support Nintendo gives the system, and another hardware SKU would help a lot.  However, they've been saying they plan on Switch being a 10 year system, so there could be a lot of support still coming.

Interesting take on 40m. As I said in an earlier comment, I think Holiday 2024 is probably most likely launch for Switch 2, and Switch will only sell 1-2 million more after 2024, leaving it at 34 or 35 million.

But if by some chance they have a bunch more games planned for Switch to release in '24 and '25, and drop Lite to $150, OG to low $230, OLED to $270, and are planning an upgraded model next year ("Pro" type model) for $350 to keep the system going for a while, and don't launch Switch 2 until say Spring '26, then yeah 40m would be doable. But that is highly unlikely. I don't see a new model coming and I think we're getting towards the end of the big games once BotW2 comes out next Spring. I don't see any reason Nintendo would drag the Switch out and let it drop down to like 10 million sales a year when it is their only system. Next year it'll drop under 20 million and so roughly a year after that it makes sense to bring out a new system to take over from Switch's dropping sales.

There seems to be a misconception about a successor console.  The successor does not cause the previous system to sell less.  There is a positive correlation, but it is not a cause.  Plenty of systems have kept selling decently even after a successor was released.  What causes the drop in sales is a combination of market saturation and declining support for the older system.  On top of that sometimes the company takes intention steps to kill off the older system (e.g. the PS4).

Nintendo has said they intend the Switch to be a 10 year system.  They intend to support it for 10 years, and third party developers will keep supporting it too as long as Nintendo does.  Lack of support will not be an issue.  Market saturation is not much of an issue either.  Switch is on track to have the best 6th year of any system.  Instead what we should expect is for Nintendo to keep trying to sell the Switch even after Switch 2 is released.  Expect bundles and price drops for hardware at the very least.  The 3DS had a couple of decent years of hardware sales after the Switch released.  Expect the Switch to do even better than that after the Switch 2 releases.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Around the Network
xMetroid on 20 August 2022

With Nintendo promoting MK8D till 2024 and Splatoon 3 till end of 2024, i doubt they will let the sales of the Switch tank and i'm sure they have plenty of big titles for next year.



xMetroid on 21 August 2022
Mar1217 said:
xMetroid said:

With Nintendo promoting MK8D till 2024 and Splatoon 3 till end of 2024, i doubt they will let the sales of the Switch tank and i'm sure they have plenty of big titles for next year.

Like we're most certainly getting BOTW 2 next year with the possibility of Metroid Prime 4 being shown and released the same year and that's without any other type of announcements so far that we're prolly gonna get in the next Directs this Autumn and early next year.

I'm actually expecting 2023 to be another great software year for the Switch which will in turn drive hardware sales without the need of a new SKU or a price drop.

Yea next year will be where they will have their most ambitious releases imo. We will most probably see the next 3D mario, Metroid Prime 4 has some good chances of coming out towards October next year as well and there will be Botw 2 which will probably sell around 20 millions if done right. 



curl-6 on 22 August 2022

Switch Sports showing legs worthy of its series, another easy million seller in the making.

I wonder what Japanese game stores even look like with ratios like this, does the Switch section take up 90% of the shop?



tbone51 on 22 August 2022
curl-6 said:

Switch Sports showing legs worthy of its series, another easy million seller in the making.

I wonder what Japanese game stores even look like with ratios like this, does the Switch section take up 90% of the shop?


of course it does, just look at the sales of the last 2-3 years. Is it even possible Sony has 20% of shelf space at retailers with the amount of games they shipped?