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HigHurtenflurst on 19 August 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
kopstudent89 said:

Switch is 7.5m from getting the all time record. Unlikely yes, but small possibility? Maybe with a Switch pro? BOTW 2 boost? Possible.. and at its price point that is seriously impressive


Maybe the more likely record is to break PS2's home console record (I am taking out Switch L sales as it's handheld only). That record is 23.2m for PS2 vs 20.7m Switch home consoles. It will probably do it in Q2 of next year unless Splatoon and Pokemon give the Switch a major holidays boost

Switch will sell about 2m more this year.  Conservatively, it can easily sell 3.5m in 2023 and 2.5m in 2024.  A drop of 1m YoY is actually a very steep drop.  Anyway, that adds up to 8m more by the end of 2024 and a few million more after that.  Switch should have no problem becoming the best selling system in Japan.

The more interesting goal, to me, is 40m.  Switch has a shot at reaching 40m, but that is a harder road.  It depends on what kind of support Nintendo gives the system, and another hardware SKU would help a lot.  However, they've been saying they plan on Switch being a 10 year system, so there could be a lot of support still coming.

I roughly agree with your figures, that's what i'm expecting for this year & 2023. 2024 is reasonable assuming a successor is announced at the earliest in holiday of 2023 & not released until holiday 2024. Japan is usually very quick to jump to the new successor so as soon as it's released Switch will die quickly.