I think Switch has an excellent shot at the record. And if they get aggressive in the last couple years on the market (system price cuts, software price cuts, and a few more major games...2D Mario anyone?) then they are pretty much guaranteed to break the DS's record.

It'll do high four million this year. Next year if it does say 3.5 million that puts it only 2 million away from the record. I think a successor is likely holiday 2024, but even with that there's a good chance Switch is right at the record by end of that year just after the successor's launch. Then it'll probably do another million-plus before they stop production on the Switch. I think there's a great chance it ends up with 34 million and change, 35 million if they keep producing it for a few years in small quantities.

Halving Switch's number gives us roughly 77k, so that's the average weekly total for the two combined here.
Very strong number.

I think 4.5m maximum. Splatoon 3 isn't doing the hottest, this is the 4th or 5th pokemon game for the Switch. Botw 2 got delayed it seems. Next year, 2-3m would be a great showing.

In fact with 4.5m and 3m it would surpass my Lifetime expectations. Exciting stuff.

Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-8-1-22-8-14-22-top-30/

August 1 – August 7

1. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 – 26,569 / 139,297
2. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports – 23,374 / 646,867
3. [PS5] Gran Turismo 7 – 14,938 / 154,826
4. [NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 13,135 / 837,044
5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 12,979 / 4,758,588
6. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set – 11,766 / 229,238
7. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 9,683 / 3,237,690
8. [NSW] Minecraft – 9,532 / 2,737,398
9. [NSW] Live A Live – 7,324 / 92,559
10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 5,518 / 4,941,832
11. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! – 5,372 / 2,960,794
12. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 5,163 / 7,302,637
13. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars – 5,014 / 1,009,741
14. [NSW] Digimon Survive – 4,780 / 33,316
15. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2022 – 4,272 / 212,406
16. [NSW] Nobunaga’s Ambition: Rebirth – 4,004 / 32,364
17. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 3,282 / 2,061,595
18. [PS4] Nobunaga’s Ambition: Rebirth – 2,936 / 31,336
19. [NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl – 2,924 / 2,575,554
20. [NSW] Pokemon Legends: Arceus – 2,888 / 2,279,420
21. [NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles – 2,761 / 149,795
22. [NSW] Apathy: Narugami Gakuen Nana Fushigi – 2,618 / NEW
23. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 2,559 / 1,003,782
24. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 2,189 / 4,105,711
25. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat – 2,051 / 276,388
26. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield – 2,006 / 4,360,515
27. [NSW] Mario Strikers: Battle League – 1,941 / 74,124
28. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun! – 1,852 / 731,829
29. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury – 1,707 / 1,065,500
30. [NSW] Gesshizu: Minna de Chokomaka Muradukuri – 1,605 / NEW

NS - 28
PS4 - 1
PS5 - 1

August 8 – August 14

1. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports – 30,526 / 677,393
2. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 16,297 / 4,774,885
3. [NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 14,822 / 851,866
4. [NSW] Live A Live – 13,675 / 106,234
5. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 – 12,960 / 152,257
6. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak – 12,414 / 241,652
7. [NSW] Minecraft – 11,641 / 2,749,039
8. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 9,329 / 3,247,019
9. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! – 7,408 / 2,698,202
10. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars – 7,264 / 1,017,005
11. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 7,235 / 4,949,067
12. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 5,697 / 7,308,334
13. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2022 – 4,698 / 217,104
14. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 3,785 / 2,065,380
15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 3,256 / 1,007,308
16. [NSW] Pokemon Legends: Arceus – 3,486 / 2,282,906
17. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 3,348 / 4,109,059
18. [NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles – 3,233 / 153,028
19. [NSW] Nobunaga’s Ambition: Rebirth – 2,957 / 35,321
20. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield – 2,713 / 4,363,228
21. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat – 2,584 / 278,972
22. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury – 2,373 / 1,067,973
23. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun! – 2,354 / 734,183
24. [NSW] Mario Strikers: Battle League – 2,319 / 76,443
25. [PS4] Nobunaga’s Ambition: Rebirth – 2,253 / 33,589
26. [PS5] Gran Turismo 7 – 2,215 / 157,041
27. [NSW] Digimon Survive – 2,164 / 35,480
28. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies – 2,021 / 998,891
29. [NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl – 1,931 / 2,577,485
30. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise Best Price – 1,892 / 87,418

NS - 28
PS4 - 1
PS5 - 1

Hard for Splatoon 3 to do hot when it's not even out yet

Mario Strikers struggling to reach 100k.

I heard this isn't exactly a great game, but since it's Mario, I was expecting higher sales.

With digital it was at 130k shipped at the end of June.

It's probably going to drop out of the top 30 next week.

I am, as ever, amused by GT 7's movement across the chart from week to week.

Switch will sell about 2m more this year.  Conservatively, it can easily sell 3.5m in 2023 and 2.5m in 2024.  A drop of 1m YoY is actually a very steep drop.  Anyway, that adds up to 8m more by the end of 2024 and a few million more after that.  Switch should have no problem becoming the best selling system in Japan.

The more interesting goal, to me, is 40m.  Switch has a shot at reaching 40m, but that is a harder road.  It depends on what kind of support Nintendo gives the system, and another hardware SKU would help a lot.  However, they've been saying they plan on Switch being a 10 year system, so there could be a lot of support still coming.

You know this number is because retailers' bundles, right?