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Slownenberg on 19 August 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
kopstudent89 said:

Switch is 7.5m from getting the all time record. Unlikely yes, but small possibility? Maybe with a Switch pro? BOTW 2 boost? Possible.. and at its price point that is seriously impressive


Maybe the more likely record is to break PS2's home console record (I am taking out Switch L sales as it's handheld only). That record is 23.2m for PS2 vs 20.7m Switch home consoles. It will probably do it in Q2 of next year unless Splatoon and Pokemon give the Switch a major holidays boost

Switch will sell about 2m more this year.  Conservatively, it can easily sell 3.5m in 2023 and 2.5m in 2024.  A drop of 1m YoY is actually a very steep drop.  Anyway, that adds up to 8m more by the end of 2024 and a few million more after that.  Switch should have no problem becoming the best selling system in Japan.

The more interesting goal, to me, is 40m.  Switch has a shot at reaching 40m, but that is a harder road.  It depends on what kind of support Nintendo gives the system, and another hardware SKU would help a lot.  However, they've been saying they plan on Switch being a 10 year system, so there could be a lot of support still coming.

Interesting take on 40m. As I said in an earlier comment, I think Holiday 2024 is probably most likely launch for Switch 2, and Switch will only sell 1-2 million more after 2024, leaving it at 34 or 35 million.

But if by some chance they have a bunch more games planned for Switch to release in '24 and '25, and drop Lite to $150, OG to low $230, OLED to $270, and are planning an upgraded model next year ("Pro" type model) for $350 to keep the system going for a while, and don't launch Switch 2 until say Spring '26, then yeah 40m would be doable. But that is highly unlikely. I don't see a new model coming and I think we're getting towards the end of the big games once BotW2 comes out next Spring. I don't see any reason Nintendo would drag the Switch out and let it drop down to like 10 million sales a year when it is their only system. Next year it'll drop under 20 million and so roughly a year after that it makes sense to bring out a new system to take over from Switch's dropping sales.