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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 31, 2022 (Jul 25 - Jul 31)

RolStoppable said:
Mar1217 said:

By curiosity, where did you get the numbers split? Was it in the financial report ?

They are numbers you can derive with information from the financial report. For example, page 18 of this document:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/220803_2e.pdf

Since Nintendo Switch Sports launched in this specific quarter, it's the easiest calculation. 900k copies shipped (meaning physical copies sold to retailers + digital copies sold through to consumers) by June 30th. When you then look at the Famitsu numbers from the week ending June 26, you see 512k copies sold through to consumers; Famitsu's accuracy for physical games is high enough to put their numbers in the correct ballpark at pretty much all times.

Now you have to add another four days of sales for NSS to arrive at June 30th. It sold 20k units in the week ending July 3rd, so for the sake of easiness, we'll round up the previous 512k LTD figure to 525k with the addition of four days. Then we factor in that physical copies have an amount in transit or on store shelves, meaning copies that have yet to be sold through. For the sake of convenience, we assume that each Japanese retailer on average stocks two weeks worth of supply, so that's in the range of 40-50k based on NSS's sales rate at the time. We'll add 45k to 525k and so we get 570k in total.

This gives us a physical to digital ratio of 63/37 and this constitutes a conservative estimate for the physical side, so 37% is the best case scenario for digital. This is several percent points lower than what Shatts said.

The digital ratio for Kirby and the Forgotten Land is also lower than 40%, so about 35% at best.

As for the point of origin of this sidetracking... even if PS5 games averaged a digital ratio of 60-70%, its total software sales would still be bad relative to its hardware sales.

Ye my apologies like I said above I thought '22 was 22nd, so I checked the Famitsu sale near 22nd but it should've been the end of June. 



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Shatts said:
Farsala said:

Worldwide includes Japan. Give me proof. I would rather believe the console manufacturers themselves.

So I will give u guys the data. (JP) 

Nintendo Switch Sports - Physical ~500,000    Digital ~400,000    Total ~900,000      Digital ~45%

Kirby and the Forgotten Land - Physical ~760,000       Digital ~500,000    Total 1,260,000      Digital ~40%

This is the Switch which we can assume has the lowest digital ratio out of the Big 3 and in Japan which we can also assume has the lowest digital ratio of any region. There is definitely a digital trend, and the number proves that. I just chose the newest ones for data, I also noticed battle league sold ~2 million Worldwide in just 12 days

Some digital in Japan are bigger ( 30-45%), because of two factors

The voucher and physical versions sold out.

The problem is treating the anomaly like the norm. 

Yes, digital adoption is growing in Japan, but not predominant because of the health of the used market and prices dinamics in Japanese market. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 05 August 2022

Kakadu18 said:
Mar1217 said:

Prolly a bit but moreso, the Limited Edition is also only sold on My Nintendo Store which prolly ends up as another good boost.

I'd say, first week sales adding those two variables would add up to over 150K at least.

Good progression for the series. Though, Worldwide numbers are more important since that's in the west where Xenoblade does best.

Good news! XC3's openings should 100% be over 300k. It's a voucher game. XCDE while being 2000 yen cheaper in 2020 had a 50% digital share. The only voucher game with the same price as XC3 was in 2019 Astral Chain which had a digital share of over 60%. Now years later digital is higher than in 2019. XC3 definitely has a digital of over 60%. And that's including the Special Edition. On ComG XCDE's Special Edition had a 50% share. While that was definitely not the case in all of Japan it still may indicate a high SE share which might be similar with XC3.

Add to that the 40-60% sell through and the first week shipment might be close to 400k.

JRPGs with a very high price point that are voucher games definitely always have a very high digital share. The same happened with Fire Emblem: Three Houses.

voucher, special edition. Maybe surpass 200k FW. 



Agente42 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Good news! XC3's openings should 100% be over 300k. It's a voucher game. XCDE while being 2000 yen cheaper in 2020 had a 50% digital share. The only voucher game with the same price as XC3 was in 2019 Astral Chain which had a digital share of over 60%. Now years later digital is higher than in 2019. XC3 definitely has a digital of over 60%. And that's including the Special Edition. On ComG XCDE's Special Edition had a 50% share. While that was definitely not the case in all of Japan it still may indicate a high SE share which might be similar with XC3.

Add to that the 40-60% sell through and the first week shipment might be close to 400k.

JRPGs with a very high price point that are voucher games definitely always have a very high digital share. The same happened with Fire Emblem: Three Houses.

voucher, special edition. Maybe surpass 200k FW. 

Let's assume the special edition is at 20k. That makes 133k physical sold first week. Digital is definitely higher than it was with XCDE, which was at over 50% because XC3 is more expensive physically and since we can safely assume that digital is generally higher now than than in 2020.

That means there is no maybe.



Clubhouse games joins the million physical sales in Japan club, joining Mario Party Superstars.
Kirby and the Forgotten Land should get there in a few months too.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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Agente42 said:

Worldwide is not japan.

We have data and estimates against this number in Japan.

The Japanese market will go digital but is not the majority yet. And the Ps5 people buying Ps4 games narrative be debunked too. 

It´s scalped abroad( some people say more than 30%), plus free game as services and low software sales. 

It is true that worldwide is not necessarily Japan, but how do you know that digital isn't the majority yet? Honestly, I would expect digital percentage to increase with the fact that the Series S and PS5 DE exist. That coupled with COVID, I could see digital being over 50% of the market now, or at least very close to it. 

Can you give me an indication as to why this isn't so?



Doctor_MG said:
Agente42 said:

Worldwide is not japan.

We have data and estimates against this number in Japan.

The Japanese market will go digital but is not the majority yet. And the Ps5 people buying Ps4 games narrative be debunked too. 

It´s scalped abroad( some people say more than 30%), plus free game as services and low software sales. 

It is true that worldwide is not necessarily Japan, but how do you know that digital isn't the majority yet? Honestly, I would expect digital percentage to increase with the fact that the Series S and PS5 DE exist. That coupled with COVID, I could see digital being over 50% of the market now, or at least very close to it. 

Can you give me an indication as to why this isn't so?

That would only truly apply if we assume people other than digital only buyers from the get go were to get those. Even then, the PS5 DE has quite the limited release.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Good salez for everybody.



Looks like new numbers are not coming today, as it's a holiday week in Japan. Numbers did come this day last year but that must have been a fluke. Hopefully we don't have to wait a full week but we'll see, and I'll post a new thread as soon as any numbers come in.



SW-3707-5131-3911

kenjab said:

Looks like new numbers are not coming today, as it's a holiday week in Japan. Numbers did come this day last year but that must have been a fluke. Hopefully we don't have to wait a full week but we'll see, and I'll post a new thread as soon as any numbers come in.

I was wondering about that. I like to wait for certain data to come in before running the weekly VGC estimates. One of the sources being Famitsu. Good chance the next VGC estimates will be delayed until Famitsu data comes out. 



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