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Forums - Website Topics - NeoGAF gets really cranky about NYT mentioning VGChartz

hunter_alien on 23 April 2008

My god ... stupid , idiot f**ks ... they are some real morons there . At least ioi and the rest of the team can give us the worlds most accurate sales data , and they go on and give us examples from month old sales , which went trough tons of PR modifications , as proof that they lie ... my god they are many morons in this world ...



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Final-Fan on 23 April 2008
apujanata said:
The problem is this : Without NPD data as guidance, your weekly data will be way off. Of course, your LTD data could have an insignificant error, since you have console manufacturer shipment data as benchmark.

The major value of your site (IMO) is the weekly data. If the weekly data is wrong, then the LTD will also be wrong (unless you have external benchmark, be it NPD, Famitsu / M-create, ELSPA, company production shipment).

For S/W LTD, that is where the most discrepancy came from. Unless you assume that shipment = sold (which I don't agree with), and you have data of S/W shipment, your S/W LTD are most probably very inaccurate.

Is there a clear indication in the database of which S/W have high confidence (because there is shipment data available), and which one have low confidence (no shipment data) ? If there is no indication at all, how can we be confident that we are talking about an amount that is roughly correct (+- 10% deviation) ?
I disagree pretty strongly with this.  The current weekly data is certainly important, but the tools, graphs, historical data, etc. etc. is just amazing.  The ability to easily compare consoles over any covered period of time is a huge asset.  The site is called VG Chartz, after all.  And as we saw, they DO adjust the numbers in hindsight, so if the numbers initially posted turn out to be off, they are corrected.  NPD does not to my knowledge do this, at least to the public. 

I agree that it would be an asset to track shipment data as well.  That may well be a future addition to the site and I would greatly like to see it. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan on 23 April 2008
hunter_alien said:
My god ... stupid , idiot f**ks ... they are some real morons there . At least ioi and the rest of the team can give us the worlds most accurate comprehensive sales data , and they go on and give us examples from month old sales , which went trough tons of PR modifications , as proof that they lie ... my god they are many morons in this world ...
Fixed. 

You do realize that you're part of the reason people make fun of VG Chartz, right?  apujanata was NOT saying that VG Chartz is lying, he's complaining about the accuracy.  And they're not "PR" modifications, unless you're using initials I'm not familiar with. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

tabsina on 23 April 2008
Final-Fan said:
hunter_alien said:
My god ... stupid , idiot f**ks ... they are some real morons there . At least ioi and the rest of the team can give us the worlds most accurate comprehensive sales data , and they go on and give us examples from month old sales , which went trough tons of PR modifications , as proof that they lie ... my god they are many morons in this world ...
Fixed.

You do realize that you're part of the reason people make fun of VG Chartz, right? apujanata was NOT saying that VG Chartz is lying, he's complaining about the accuracy. And they're not "PR" modifications, unless you're using initials I'm not familiar with.

 Completely agree with everything here, especially bolded part



Final-Fan on 23 April 2008
Final-Fan said:
totalwar23 said:
apujanata said:
The main problem is the BIG discrepancy. Like this :
March 2008, for PS2, NPD is 216,000, while VGC is 420,090. VGC is almost double NPD data.
Same significant difference in March 2008 data for PSP, X360, PS3. Which mean out of the 6 H/W data tracked, 4 are significantly different, while only 2 (Wii, DS) are relatively close.

In Japan, Famitsu and M-create, the 2 different tracker, they also have discrepancy. But never in the range of 50% (or double) difference. Usually it is between 10% - 20% difference, max.
You want to elaborate on the VGC number of 420,000 because I added together the 4 weeks of PS2 sales in March and got around 250,000 and America is not US only.
@ totalwar23:  NPD tracked 5 weeks in March, actually.

[edit3: OH GOD THE SHAME.  apujanata, I publicly admit not having the wit to check VGC's very own VGC/NPD comparison news article, which is where you got your 420k number.  Applying the usual (NPD*1.1~NA) estimation, we arrive at the following differences:  VGC was:  Wii 133 under, DS 91 under, PSP 55 over, 360 55 over, PS3 70 over, PS2 182 over.

[I really don't know why you say that the Wii and DS were much closer than the rest.  Really, considering the difference in sizes of numbers, off the top of my head I'd guess that they're all comparable in deviation except for the PS2.  The Wii is actually further away I think, but I'm not going to bother running the numbers.

[I do recall seeing the PS2 numbers at the time and wondering why TheSource didn't at least mention the huge discrepancy.

[Anyway, the numbers have since been adjusted to where VGC is:   Wii 5k under, DS 14k under, PSP 53 over, 360 39 over, PS3 60 over, PS2 64k over.

[As you can see, there has obviously been a significant reevaluation of the data based on NPD (and probably other data) but it is not blind retrofitting as the numbers guys clearly remain confident in (for example) their PSP numbers.

[In any case, you have to admit that all this tends to even out over time and having the whole system of powerful graphs and comparison tools and this HUGE wealth of only somewhat questionable data is immensely valuable. In fact, if you chose to you could become a very valuable poster here to keep the numbers guys on their toes, as long as you didn't do so merely by quoting NPD as gospel.  Several longstanding members strongly question the site's accuracy and no-one who does so rationally has been banned to my knowledge.  (As opposed to the infamous PS3 undertracked in Spain! Sorry, that one's an in-joke for those of us who have been here a few months.)

[On a final note, I would like to personally curse thank you, apujanata, for causing me to do all this work.  I have long wondered just how much these numbers get adjusted after they are first posted to the site and now I know at least one example of this in action.

["Oh, I've wasted my life."]
Reposted for visibility.  I think that the quoted material is extremely relevant, and there's also been significant context-dependent commentary on my reply, but if I get many complaints about the duplication of material I'll take this down.

Side note:  I was pretty surprised to see the Nintendo vs. non-Nintendo dichotomy in the VGC vs. NPD comparisons.  Wii undertracking confirmed!

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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bdbdbd on 23 April 2008
Final-Fan said:

hunter_alien said:
My god ... stupid , idiot f**ks ... they are some real morons there . At least ioi and the rest of the team can give us the worlds most accurate comprehensive sales data , and they go on and give us examples from month old sales , which went trough tons of PR modifications , as proof that they lie ... my god they are many morons in this world ...
Fixed. 

You do realize that you're part of the reason people make fun of VG Chartz, right?  apujanata was NOT saying that VG Chartz is lying, he's complaining about the accuracy.  And they're not "PR" modifications, unless you're using initials I'm not familiar with. 




Actually, VGC is offering the most accurate WW data, since VGC is the only one tracking them.
But, yeah, the idea of this site isn't try to compete with accuracy with anyone, or enter anyones market by selling data with high price to someone. The numbers are in any case accurate enough, get fixes everytime it's needed, show the current trends, fill the gaps where there are no professional tracking firm and the history is something absolutely great.
To put it short, if there wouldn't be demand for a site like this, VGC wouldn't exist.

Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

loadedstatement on 23 April 2008

I understand. I wish everyone knew this stuff. They may trust the website a lot more. At any rate, I think we VGChartz members digg what you're doing =]



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mike_intellivision on 23 April 2008

Thanks IOI

This is the point I have always made about people saying NPD is right and VGC is wrong. They are all estimates.

TheMarketSage (3:12:04 PM): Good questions. NPD would prefer all data to come in weekly. However, some retailers just aren't equipped or simply flat out refuse to provide it that way. Ultimately it is the retailers’ decision though.


As to the question of the NPD data without Walmart? Many would argue that it just isn't that valid, but when left with no alternative (until you guys came along), it is better than nothing. The validity is a hard pill to swallow for many though; particularly given the steep pricing customers are forced to accept.

Mike



      


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loadedstatement on 23 April 2008

Keep up the good work ioi!



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apujanata on 23 April 2008

Plus, the Internet, and its fragmented distribution of sales, has made it tough to accurately assess the true size of the market. Thus, while NPD once had perhaps 85% of the market represented in its panel, that figure is now closer to 60-65% depending on the category.


This statement is not valid anymore. NPD NOW (probably since around 2 - 3 months ago, IIRC) have coverage of the big names online retailer, such as amazon.com. You can google them if you don't believe me.

Anyway, [bold]I hate to do this[/bold], but I really need to say goodbye to you all. It has been fun talking to you all, but I have to go. I leave because this site is too bandwidth heavy for me, and the more I look and post at this site, the more I am charged by my ISP. Other site I frequent does not have heavy bandwidth usage.

Good luck to you all. Wish you happy discussion. If any of you really want to talk with me, you can find me at NeoGAF, or at simExchange, under the same id : apujanata.