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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

This is interesting. Although so far there have been few, if any, sanctions directly targeting the Russian oil&gas industry it appears it is still caught in the crossfire from the financial sanctions that have been broadly imposed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60584798

"On Tuesday, oil trader Trafigura offered a cargo load of Russian crude oil at a record discount of $18.60 per barrel below the market rate for Brent, but could not find a buyer willing to take the risk."

Whilst once failed sale doesn't equate a massive problem it does sound like it could be reflective of an industry trend. For now it looks more like the rising oil&gas prices is benefiting Russia, but how much longer?



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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498929557365309442?s=20&t=mv8wKOFrUKur-5zdbHmQLA

For quick comparison this was for yesterday.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498574179188330501?s=20&t=mv8wKOFrUKur-5zdbHmQLA



Ukraine's numbers could be casualties rather than KIA. Casualties include wounded and captured soldiers in its count, not just those who have been killed.



KratosLives said:
Pemalite said:

It would embolden China to take Taiwan if it knows the west is only going to bark.

where will russia keep getting it's money to fight a long war. Russia will have to fight the people , and possibly neighbouring countries. Could china survive the same sanctions russia is getting ?

Where will Russia get it's money from? It's a sovereign currency. It's backed by gold.
At the moment the Russian Ruble is a floating currency so it can fluctuate with market trends.

However... China and Russia have excluded the USD from trade and directly trade in their native currencies anyway, Russia can get everything it needs from China, which is economically massive these days at 15~ trillion.

The world closing off to Russia will simply force Russia to rely more heavily on China.

But China on the other hand is another matter... It's not where China can survive the same sanctions, it's whether all the other developed nations can survive without China... Because let's face it, we manufacture the vast majority of the worlds goods, China is also a powerhouse in rare-earth materials.

What needs to happen is decentralized manufacturing/processing before we can successfully sanction off China.

In saying that... Russia isn't economically massive these days... Microsoft or Apple have bigger market caps than the value of the entire Russian economy. Puts things into perspective.
Russia also has almost 6x the population of Australia, but it's economy is likely equivalent/less after these sanctions.

Dulfite said:
SvennoJ said:

You can print money and Russia can build their own stuff.
China could survive sanctions as well, was doing fine on their own for many centuries.

Printing money is literally pointless in this context. Ask Germany after ww2, people were burning cash just to start fires. China alone cannot sustain Russia, and if they tried, they'd be hurt economically by it both in the short and long run.

Also, it took decades for China to adjust to the global market. And that was when their population was a LOT less. If they were to tie themselves to the sinking stone that is Putin then the sanctions they get wouldn't take decades to impact their economy, but rather weeks and months. Decades of slowly getting where they are on the global stage would be (not entirely, but significantly) undone within weeks/months, and they have a MUCH larger population to provide for now than they did half a century ago. 

We will see how far loyalty to authoritarian, scary governments lasts when 100 million+ in Russia and 1 billion+ in China are living in increasingly worse economics situations all because of their governments stupidity. The larger a rebellion grows, the less likely you as an individual will have to fear by joining it. 

If China is smart, they will let Putin take this fall and act like they had nothing to do with it, retract from their Taiwan threat, and live to fight another day after a couple decades of everyone pacifying before attempting to do it again. If they are dumb, they will support Russia, and their own uncontrollably large population will rise against them.

Printing money causes inflation. But you can play with that as well to a nations benefit.

On China however... China is resource hungry, obviously they wouldn't be handing over money to Russia willy-nilly, there would be tangible transactions taking place.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Ryuu96 said:

Desinformación y mentiras sobre Ucrania y Rusia - EFE Verifica

Good to see that I posted none of the stuff in here aside from the father saying goodbye to the daughter but that video was posted on the 21st of Feb, even if it was a few days before the actual invasion, it feels a bit splitting hairs.

Las imágenes engañosas de la crisis entre Rusia y Ucrania (efe.com)

This is from 1st of Feb so not really relevant to the current thread.

Cuidado con el video en Facebook del supuesto ataque ruso a Ucrania: contiene explosiones en China y clips de videojuegos | Noticias Univision | Univision

I don't believe I've posted anything from here but it isn't translating for some reason.

Propaganda, fake videos of Ukraine invasion bombard users - ABC News (go.com)

No specifics.

Fact-checking fake videos of Ukraine conflict - CNNPolitics

Didn't post.

¡Fake news! Videos de ARMA 3 pasados por ataques a Ucrania fueron vistos por miles | LevelUp

Didn't post.

"Just gave the pretext to USA to expand NATO (which they already planned)"

Once again, Ukraine was nowhere near joining NATO, if a country wants to join NATO it is their decision and they have their reasons for doing so, like Russia threatening them.

"and have more bases and weapons targeting Russia"

Nope.

"USA and several of their media seem eager to escalate this conflict to global levels a few days ago Biden said something about "World War III being a solution to the conflict"

Here is what he said: "You have two options. Start a third World War-- go to war with Russia physically, or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying the price for having done it."

He was not escalating, he was saying there are two options, which there are, but the sanction option is the best option, if you listen to the interview it's very clear he was not suggesting America should go to WW3.

"Ukraine joining NATO is just a pretext to have complete Europe become USA private gun pointing at Russia's head"

Fearmongering, we aren't holding a gun to Russia's head, we are defending our allies, Russia was holding a gun to Ukraine's head.

Russia isn't a communist country anymore, nobody cares about that anymore.

Agreed that we shouldn't hold it against the Russian people but the sanctions serve a purpose, if Putin wants them to end, he knows what to do, if he cares about his citizens, he knows what to do, and the citizens will know who to blame (Putin).

Xenophobic remarks definitely shouldn't be allowed but nobody has done that here.

And that is the just the thing, i follow several media in both spanish and english and everyone is publishing everything according to different "perspectives", you also say that you didn't post any of the cases in the links that were out as fake, that's ok, i was just pointing out that as things are ocurring i've seen in a lot more of content pop-out and later being called on as fake not just the one that i put, but lots and lots being used without verification in media like mexican, spanish, argentinean, and USA latin american news, people in Latin America always joked about how news outlets are some of the things you have to be always more distrustful about, but as some users that commented on twitter: "we have only seen similar levels of fake news when the pandemic was being deniend or subjected to conspirations", now even the gossip sections of some newspapers are raring to go with the theme and i'm not joking, their sections had been more dry as time passes and people here are not as entranced with "celebrities" as before, but now they sickenly have found a new way to bost their audience with morbids things about the conflict, note that i dind't even include several media that are pointed out as being biased by western standards like some south-american diaries, russian news and others like fox news, their afiliates and the like, as for the ones you mentioned as being from previous weeks, what is shows it that the disinformation was ocurring even before the invation really ocurred.

As for the things with NATO, you said that Ukraine was nowhere near joining NATO or increasing militarization targeting "pro-russian" populations, that is what lots of western media have said but as i mentioned in the post, people and other media including ones living there have said otherwise, about local conflicts from before that no one cared, later about their politicians and governments doing things to the detriment of their people from different sectors, then the harrassment to the people in certain sectors of the country, and also about the government wanting to have more bases and weapons by joining forces with occident, not that this contradicts the various things about Putin having his own delusions and ambitions, and actively having a part supporting some parites in the conflicts that have happened over the years.

The Biden one you are right he said it was an alternative to the sanctions to solve the conflict, but the thing is that almost every media put the WWIII in the headlines of almost every note, maybe in a manipulative way as they are know for doing, but just remember that he along with some other men like Putin can end up fucking everything, even if they "just consider" the alternative of the global warfare.

In the "fearmongering, we aren't holding a gun to Russia's head, we are defending our allies" and "Russia was the one holding a gun to Ukraine's head". that is the oldest excuse in the book, when USA and "their allies" does it is ok, it not an invation, intervention, ocupation or giving weapons to some group to attack or fuck another country, even if it means empowering taliban, Al Qaeda, ISIS, salvadorian, guatemalan mercenaries, millitary groups that later becomes dictatorship etc., the separatists have referred to the government as having authoritarian, right-wing,  nazi tendencies and other things, some like the western media says this is false, other media say this is correct, and some in between have more moderated approaches to what they say, but for the "mainstream" media there is always only one simplist correct point of view in this kind of conflicts, indepently of whatever complexities are in between, what lot of us and our families have seen trough the years is that in reality things tend to go in a variety of ways even if following those supposedly "correct way" during these big historical events after WWII, that is why in Latin America and part of the Caribean there are tons of jokes both about russia, cuba, venezuela, nationalization, expropriation, communism poverty, authoritarianism, etc., but also lots of jokes about american "fredom" coupled with monopolies, interventions, pertroleum, coup de etats, dictatorship,authoritarianism, etc. , samething about the "Russia isn't a communist country anymore, nobody cares about that anymore." thing, it's true that Russia isn't a communist country anymore, but it's not about being communist it's about always having a pretext to meddle with everyone and everything in the world if they don't conform to what America wants, that is what a lot of historians refer about this and other conflicts just being the continuation of the shit BOTH America and Russian sides have subjected us to, since the end of world war II.

"Agreed that we shouldn't hold it against the Russian people but the sanctions serve a purpose, and if Putin wants them to end, he knows what to do, if he cares about his citizens, he knows what to do, and the citizens will know who to blame (Putin)"  the ones that are like freezing his bank accounts, transactions and the like or commerce of certain things OK, and probably there are others that could also work to diminish his power, but the ones that go in the way of everyday the population even if they are minimal sanctions if yout want, are still a way to deflect it on and harm the population, i had one twit from a photographer about several sites on the internet unjustlly deleting their pages but i guess his tweet got deleted, this one from a cosplayer on onlyfans in aproximation to that, what the chain of comments show is that onlyfans and other enterprises are doing, is not only blockading payments or transactions to russian people, some people are in agreement may be ok during the conflict, what the people are also saying are that those mediums are taking advantage of the situation to delete the accounts of the people, due to which they couldn't resume their work after the conflict is over, but also they are stealing their money (just like what the trading companies did to the dudes in reddit that were legally buying gamestop stocks, when the speculators of the stock market began to whine about their lost scam money)

I hope that as you say some thing works that ends the conflict and gets out Putin out of the Russian chair, what's more i wish he gets the punishment he deserves for agravating the problems in the region even further, but I'm not in agreement with taking it out on the general populace, the USA governments have been invading countries for more than one century with the pretext of defending "his freedom" and no one ever asked to sanction the country and neither chastise its people, even after things like bombarding into oblivion places that still suffer the aftermaths to this day like like Vietnam, Serbia, Laos etc. or actively helping groups take control of some countries that would later became beligerent terrorist groups, like the ones in the middle-east. 

"Xenophobic remarks definitely shouldn't be allowed but nobody has done that here", i never said in the post that they were made here, i said about things that have been reported in some places, due to obviously the personal fellings of some people but also by the way the things are being reported(at least, several of the media i have seen are very "inflamatory" in the way they present the news), again if you are information media reporting you just give the facts simply do that, do not sprinkle some "story enhancers" here and there, the other user to which i was replying wanted some sources, and i provided "reputable" sources that are checking out on the validity of lots of things that have not only been posted on social media, but also being broadcasted on massive traditional media, for which if they are honest, they have no reason nor excuses to keep broadcasting without trying to verify first in the current difficult situation:

AFP listing more fake news

https://twitter.com/i/events/1496858795003236362

https://factual.afp.com/list/all/all/all/38562/45

Greetings, and thanks for your work on this thread.



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I appreciate all the info, but this thread kills mobile by the way. Getting errors and reloads all over when a page gets too long and I can literally see my battery drain, sometimes with two percentage points at a time, while my phone gets warmer.

Was on 50 posts per page, I’ll set it to 25 I guess and see what happens.



It'd be interesting to know the real casualty numbers on both sides. I definitely don't trust the Russia numbers, since the Russia regime has proven to not be trustworthy and it took them this long to admin any losses, but I'm also not sure what to think of the officlal Ukrainian numbers. Considering the unexpectely slow Russian progress, I'm kind of thinking they might be true, but Ukraine is also not releasing information about its own losses. I can see two potential reasons for it: not letting the enemy know, and not releasing the numbers in order to not worry own population. It's also possible the truth is somewhere between, but actual progress does seem to hint at the truth being closer to Ukrainian numbers than Russian numbers.



On the UN votes.

Abstentions include countries in the Russian sphere or in its proximity, countries recently fucked by the West, and countries in the spheres of other abstainers - there are two surprises with South Africa and India. Then there are the obvious oppositions: Russia, Belarus, and Syria. Eritrea and North Korea are two of the three remaining totalitarian states left in the world, and shouldn't really be counted. Turkmenistan (the third totalitarian regime) will probably join against when they vote.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Nuremberg 2.0 awaits Putin and his followers. Just following orders did not work as a defence.



I feel like the Russian oligarchs, in the words of Joe Exotic, are "never going to financially recover from this."

So many of their assets are being seized they are going to be significantly less rich even if the Russians beat the Ukrainians, and hopefully knowing that will cause enough of them to force Putin to retract.