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Forums - Politics - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Bofferbrauer2 said:
shavenferret said:

The Russians have sustained about 1350 casualties per day this week. If Ukraine can push this up a bit more to say 1500 then that may be enough to break the stalemate. 

Not sure if it would break the stalemate, but it will break Putin for sure, as then he'll be forced to mobilize more troops to fill the gaps, something he promised and vowed no to do on repeated occasions, so breaking that promise would break any trust the Russians have in him. Putin would be absolutely done after this, with no chance to recover politically.

On the other side, it would also be another sign to normal Russians that the war with Ukraine didn't go as well as they've been told to for 4 years. Ukraine is slowly gaining the initiative also on the battlefield as their counterattacks allow them to make some room, though Russia is still advancing slowly direction the fortress belt with fighting within Konstantynivka.

Russia's biggest issue isn't it's military however, it's it's economy, and especially funds to procure anything. Funds they mostly got from oil exports, which Ukraine is successively shutting down. They can't even sell their bonds anymore:

If this keeps going on then Russia will be forced to end the war with accepting all Ukrainian concessions just so they can get bailed out of their misery by the IMF.

1500 per day would almost certainly be above the number for recruiting......... and unless Putin is putting troops that were part of something else (like guarding the border with China), then they will either run dry or be forced to conscript more soldiers.  



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So, casualties were averaging in the mid 1300’s, and then we had a few days of 1400’s, and now they are in the 1500’s. 

It would seem that the conflict might have reached a tipping point where the casualties are going to get greater and greater.  





It's insane how the only plan Russia still seems to have is to wait it out and hope support for Ukraine eventually crumbles. At this point (and to be honest, for a long time already) it's just Putin trying to avoid facing his responsibility of this failed war at the cost of Russia - it's really hard to see how at this point the war could turn in Russia's favour so much that it could possibly be worth it in the end.



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Zkuq said:

It's insane how the only plan Russia still seems to have is to wait it out and hope support for Ukraine eventually crumbles. At this point (and to be honest, for a long time already) it's just Putin trying to avoid facing his responsibility of this failed war at the cost of Russia - it's really hard to see how at this point the war could turn in Russia's favour so much that it could possibly be worth it in the end.

Exactly, he knows that at this point that winning won’t happen. His best outcome would stem from a settlement. 

The reason that he’s locked into this conflict though is that the Russian economy will end up nosediving once the government isn’t spending willy nilly on defense.  Putin is propping up the economy but it can’t last. 



Zkuq said:

It's insane how the only plan Russia still seems to have is to wait it out and hope support for Ukraine eventually crumbles. At this point (and to be honest, for a long time already) it's just Putin trying to avoid facing his responsibility of this failed war at the cost of Russia - it's really hard to see how at this point the war could turn in Russia's favour so much that it could possibly be worth it in the end.

I think the main reason is that they reported at home for 4 years that the war is going well, so pulling out would be political suicide. I'm fairly sure the higher-ups in the Russian military are aware that Ukraine won't crumble anytime soon.

On the other hand, I'm not sure if this actually is what Putin gets to hear, it's very well possible that he's only getting fed embellished lies, too. Like he got told before the war that the Ukrainians would greet the Russian troops with open arms or about the state of the Russian military back then. I mean, how long since you would have sacked Shoigu in his place?



If it’s a matter of delusion, then the whole war is just one major victory from Ukraine away from not just losing support in Russia, but triggering an uprising. Otherwise, it’s just a matter of time before that uprising occurs. If, say, Ukraine seized a chunk of Crimea, it’s over.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:

If it’s a matter of delusion, then the whole war is just one major victory from Ukraine away from not just losing support in Russia, but triggering an uprising. Otherwise, it’s just a matter of time before that uprising occurs. If, say, Ukraine seized a chunk of Crimea, it’s over.

Crimea is the Endboss, as it's very difficult to breach without a naval invasion due to the very few access routes are very easily defendable.

The only way to get rid of those defenders would be to stop any supplies for them, but to reach the capacity to do this Ukraine would basically need to throw the Russians back behind the Ukrainian border everywhere else first.

Sole exception; starving the entire peninsula until the inhabitants get rid of the Russian troops themselves just to be able to eat properly again. But not sure if then they'll ever want to be part of Ukraine again after such a treatment 



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Zkuq said:

It's insane how the only plan Russia still seems to have is to wait it out and hope support for Ukraine eventually crumbles. At this point (and to be honest, for a long time already) it's just Putin trying to avoid facing his responsibility of this failed war at the cost of Russia - it's really hard to see how at this point the war could turn in Russia's favour so much that it could possibly be worth it in the end.

I think the main reason is that they reported at home for 4 years that the war is going well, so pulling out would be political suicide. I'm fairly sure the higher-ups in the Russian military are aware that Ukraine won't crumble anytime soon.

On the other hand, I'm not sure if this actually is what Putin gets to hear, it's very well possible that he's only getting fed embellished lies, too. Like he got told before the war that the Ukrainians would greet the Russian troops with open arms or about the state of the Russian military back then. I mean, how long since you would have sacked Shoigu in his place?

It's insane how Trump is on the exact same path with Iran...