I think Nintendo's next fiscal year forecast releasing in May might be nearly the official indication whether or not Switch outsells the PS2. Nintendo knows what's coming up more than any of us and if their next FY forecast is relatively high like 10M for FY, that would put the Switch at around 151M by March 2025 and it would pretty much be confirmed it'll outsell the DS and eventually the PS2, even if it slowly crawls to that number after March 2025. We could have our answer sooner than we think

Isn't it wild Switch already outsold Wii U 10:1 in less than 7 years lol

10M is not high. That’s -30% decline YoY. Which is in the ballpark of expected.

I think Nintendo will probably lowball their forecast to 8 mil as they often do and later they have to raise it in their Q3 financial report. If an investor will ask why they think the sales will drop bascially 50%, Nintendo will just answer that it's unprecedented for them to still have sales momentum in their 8. year, so they can't expect more than 8 mil. I just want to says that for those in team 160 mil+, don't be disheartened if Nintendo forecasts low numbers. It most probably will be then a case of lowballing. However, I think they definitely will sell more than 8 mil for FY2025. Personally, I hope for 11 mil (of course more is always better but we have to be realistic).

Nintendo lowballing is not unheard of.
They forecasted 15 million this fiscal year and they've already raised it to 15.5 million and it will probably be +/- 16 million.
But to go from 8m to 10m+ would be lofty even for them.
Whatever forecast they set for the next fiscal year, I'd imagine it'll be +/- a million. And if they do end up revising it later on, I think there is a bigger chance that they go lower than higher just based on the fact that the Switch will show its age and as we here more news about Switch 2 - including the inevitable reveal, that is going really skew sales in Switch 1's disfavor.

So you don't want that any GTA will be produced ever anymore? Because newsflash, every console is inherently family-friendly, it's just that some games ain't.

Just wondering, why are you getting worked up from my opinion? I think its important to have hot takes, and even cold takes. And yes, I personally think that the GTA is an overall bad to society. Playstation and Xbox adhere to the more mature audience, while Nintendo adheres to the younger generations. We have proof based on the majority of games they develop and have developed. PC is its own thing and not considered a console.

Now back to 160M+ for the Switch. If Nintendo is releasing the Switch successor before Mar 31, 2025 then we should see a rather higher number than what we are expecting. We are expecting somewhere around 10M shipped ±2M. There were also rumors that Nintendo wanted to ship 10M successor units before the end of the FY. Personally I don't know if that rumor still holds any water due to the situation Nintendo is in rn. I think if they are to release the successor before Mar 31 (like the Switch was), then Nintendo should be able to sell and ship around 3M and 5M units respectively before the end of the FY.
I expect the FY goal to be 15M shipped (10M Switch, 5M Successor).

If Nintendo releases the successor after Mar 31, then this upcoming FY goal will be 10M.

Nintendo adheres to a mature audience just as much as Xbox & PS do. A vast majority of Switch players are adults as shown by many studies on Switch's demographic. Nintendo also offers almost just as many mature experiences you'll see on PS & Xbox from 3rd parties and many of them sell well on Switch. Just cause more family friendly Nintendo games are the bestselling and forefront of the system doesn't make the system any less appealing for mature audiences compared to PS & Xbox. In fact, some games on Switch offer a more mature experience compared to Xbox & PS since Nintendo doesn't enforce any censors on certain graphic games unlike Sony.

Well said. There are H-games on the Switch e-shop that are more lewd or have more graphic content (I really don't like using the word "mature") than GTA, and if I had choose between the former and latter to play in a crowd full of people, I'd rather play GTA than some of those games.

People think Nintendo consoles didn't get GTA games back in the day because of some supposed moral stance when it really just came down to moneyhatting from platform holders to either keep them exclusive to one console or finally get them on another. Nintendo stayed out of that, meanwhile it got games that were just as "mature" and edgy (if not more) like True Crime and its sequel, Dead To Rights and BMX XXX all on the GCN. The Wii got freaking Manhunt 2. The DS got GTA Chinatown Wars. Nintendo published Devil's Turd Third on the Wii U.

Let's say I run a lemonade stand.

One day, I'm going to happen to have about 15 customers over the course of that day, but I don't know that yet. I can't produce enough lemonade for 15 customers in one day. I only have enough lemonade for about five of them when I first open. Which is better, me selling out the lemonade that I have and asking those customers who are currently in line to wait while I go make more, or not selling to any of them and asking them all to wait while I go make more? The latter won't help me to produce lemonade any faster; I still can only do what I can with my two hands and feet.

Either way, when I come back with more lemonade, I still don't have enough for everybody. Only now, some people will have left the line because they ain't got time to wait, and some people will be annoyed because they waited and still won't get their cup. So is it really better for my business to wait until later to start selling when the end result is the same? With the former, at least some people are satisfied, and I've pocketed some revenue.