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Nintendo lowballing is not unheard of.
They forecasted 15 million this fiscal year and they've already raised it to 15.5 million and it will probably be +/- 16 million.
But to go from 8m to 10m+ would be lofty even for them.
Whatever forecast they set for the next fiscal year, I'd imagine it'll be +/- a million. And if they do end up revising it later on, I think there is a bigger chance that they go lower than higher just based on the fact that the Switch will show its age and as we here more news about Switch 2 - including the inevitable reveal, that is going really skew sales in Switch 1's disfavor.