A console Mario platformer or something.

I don't know why the rumor says Mario Kart 10. Maybe Mario Kart Live counts as 9.

Wouldn't it be cool if the switch reaches 200mil? Even though I know it won't happen.

I think with the todays Nintendo direct and the fact that MK8 will be supported until late 2023, we can assume that Switch will be long enough the main Nintendo system to be able to beat PS2 and NDS. Nintendo will not launch a Switch2 before late 2024/early 2025. Otherwise the MarioKart DLC timing would make no sense.
Imagine new tracks are keep on coming, but before the end of the new tracks there are information about Switch 2 already... That would make absolutely no sense.

So I am pretty sure now, as long as no absolutely crazy unforeseeable events are happening, Switch WILL outsell PS2 and NDS!

I'm more convinced than ever that this is happening. MK8 DLC going until the end of 2023 means no successor before the end of 2024, guaranteed.

After this Direct, looks like I'll have to give up. Switch ain't dying before January of 2024.

That direct certainly boosted chances of this happening!

Alright, I'll admit it, I was wrong. I figured software would slow down this year, but they just announced a TON of brand new exclusives none of us knew about that are almost entirely launching between now and September. I think we are FINALLY seeing the benefits of them merging their handheld and console software divisions in terms of production capabilities. And some of those games, particularly Switch Sports and MK8D getting 48 courses through the end of 2023, are massive indicators that Nintendo is planning on not having a console come out any earlier than late 2024 (why support MK8 to the end of 2023 and then release a brand new console a few months later? Makes no sense) and probably not until Spring 2025.

I am disappointed it will be that long until I get to see what next-gen Nintendo games can look like, that much hasn't changed, but I will say this: If Nintendo plans on 2023 and 2024 having a similar level of support that 2023 has or just a little less, I will have plenty of good distractions. I am genuinely shocked by how much AAA exclusive content they have coming in the next 6 months!

A strong 2022 was already expected, and most of these games won't move the needle much. But it definitely is looking stronger, and I am definitely close to being convinced that the Switch will outsell my recent prediction. Nothing new there, I suppose.

I just need the FY to end and Nintendo to tell me how much they expect to sell after all this.

A next-generation Nintendo game would look like Xenoblade 3... just at locked 1080p/60 FPS and with great texture filtering. Honestly, after 5 years, there should already be a revision that manages to accomplish at least half of that. Seeing yet another Xenoblade game that looks a bit blurry is disappointing.